July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

[DoctorMu]

Good news from Jeff, Srain. I'd take staying on the eastern flank of the Death Ridge all summer long!


Happy 4th!

[srainhoutx]

Subtle changes ahead as the Western Heat Ridges slowly loosens its grip on Texas and meanders West allowing for a NW flow aloft with imbedded shortwaves to drop into Oklahoma/N Texas firing off rounds of thunderstorms with some outflow boundaries nearing our Region each day throughout the coming week. WV Imagery suggests a TUTT feature drifting West across the Central Gulf and MIMIC shows a nice moisture plume headed our way as well. We may need to bump up precipitation chances toward the weekend as a backdoor front attempts to drop-in from the NE.

[jasons2k]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD:

Now through the end of September the forecast hinges largely on 2
things - tropics and upper level ridging. Weak to no ridging
usually yields rain chances. Strong ridging means no rain
chances. And then an approaching tropical cyclone makes for a
messy forecast scenario. As far as ridging is concerned, the
summer time ridge should be weaker over SE Texas through Friday
maybe Saturday with NW flow aloft over the plains since the core
of the ridge will be over the Rockies. So the forecast will keep
some mention of showers and thunderstorms through that time. The
ridge looks to expand over Texas and the Plains Sunday through
early next week so expect low to no chance of rain for the area.
High temperatures will be in the typical mid 90s and heat index
values in the 100-105F range. The ridge expands more for the
middle of next week. Forecast model blends seem to be too high on
rain chances given the ridge, so rain chances have been lowered by
a good 10 percent across the area in the extended forecast
compared to model guidance output.

Tropics...NHC is tracking a tropical disturbance in the middle of
the Atlantic and give it a 60 percent chance of development in
the next 5 days. Model guidance keeps the system in the Atlantic
turning towards Bermuda. No concern for the Gulf.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot day across SE TX with widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

[Texaspirate11]

Snippet from this afternoon's AFD:

Now through the end of September the forecast hinges largely on 2
things - tropics and upper level ridging. Weak to no ridging
usually yields rain chances. Strong ridging means no rain
chances. And then an approaching tropical cyclone makes for a
messy forecast scenario. As far as ridging is concerned, the
summer time ridge should be weaker over SE Texas through Friday
maybe Saturday with NW flow aloft over the plains since the core
of the ridge will be over the Rockies. So the forecast will keep
some mention of showers and thunderstorms through that time. The
ridge looks to expand over Texas and the Plains Sunday through
early next week so expect low to no chance of rain for the area.
High temperatures will be in the typical mid 90s and heat index
values in the 100-105F range. The ridge expands more for the
middle of next week. Forecast model blends seem to be too high on
rain chances given the ridge, so rain chances have been lowered by
a good 10 percent across the area in the extended forecast
compared to model guidance output.

Tropics...NHC is tracking a tropical disturbance in the middle of
the Atlantic and give it a 60 percent chance of development in
the next 5 days. Model guidance keeps the system in the Atlantic
turning towards Bermuda. No concern for the Gulf.

In a nutshell: The Doldrums

[DoctorMu]

A cell sneaks up on us from the east about 7:45 pm, just as I was about to mow. 0.6 in of gold rains down. Potential for stray showers through the weekend continues before the spigot is off for awhile.

[Katdaddy]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through next week across SE TX. Some locally heavy rains will be possible due to slow storm motion. Current radar shows showers and isolated thunderstorms offshore that will translate inland with the daytime heating.

[srainhoutx]

Chatter is beginning to increase regarding the Tropics and the potential of a Hurricane entering the Eastern Caribbean in about 7 to 10 days, if the several cycles of the ECMWF and GFS are somewhat correct in the longer range.

There are indications that a wet phase of the MJO as well as a CCKW that could enhance tropical thunderstorm development will enter the Western Atlantic Basin around 14th into the 21st of July. We are seeing some vigorous waves transition across Africa this season and have seen TC development that typically does not occur across the MDR this early in the Season. Perhaps it's a harbinger of things to come in the weeks ahead. The 'experts' have warned us that we could be an active and above average Hurricane Season. Don't let those Summer Doldrums lure you into a state of complacency.

[DoctorMu]

^GFS, Euro, CMC have something TC-like lurking in the eastern Caribbean @ 9 days. Currently there's a lot of dry air near the Antilles, but that will likely change. Euro has by far the lowest pressure @ 966 mb. Still a long way off, but I second train's thoughts that ENSO, lower shear, other factors suggest a potentially active tropical season.

[jasons2k]

Rain is so close...just to the west. Would really liked to get some. I took a gamble and turned the sprinklers off this morning.

[BlueJay]

All of those thunder rumbles that we have received almost each day this past week has finally paid off. We just enjoyed a refreshing rain shower that has cooled us down and freshened us up.

I know we are lucky!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

1.25 inches of rain in one hour here in Magnolia

[Katdaddy]

Another Summer day with lots of sun and heat mixed with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could become strong NE of Houston metro where a marginal risk area has been posted by the SPC.

[DoctorMu]

^Well predicted. There are some outflows moving southward toward the NE part of the HGX area, on the east flank of the ridge. Likely to run out of sun before they reach the metro HOU area. However, a cell is brewing on the SE side this afternoon. Tomorrow should double the rain chances.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

TXZ213-082330-
Harris TX-
557 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

At 556 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm in
Houston centered over the northeast Loop 610, moving northwest at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Near Northside Houston, Greater Fifth
Ward, Aldine, Downtown Houston, Memorial Park, Northside / Northline,
Second Ward, Greater Greenspoint, Greater Heights, Spring Valley,
Fourth Ward, Spring Branch North, Spring Branch West, Cloverleaf,
Neartown / Montrose, Hilshire Village, Bush Intercontinental Airport
and Spring Branch East.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
656 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

TXZ213-090045-
Harris TX-
656 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hedwig Village to Gulfton to Gulfgate to
Galena Park. These storms were very slow moving...generally
drifting to the southwest.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, northern Missouri City, South Houston,
Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park, Hunters Creek Village,
Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Midtown Houston, Greenway /
Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North, Neartown / Montrose, Greater
Eastwood, Greater Hobby Area, Memorial Park, Greater Third Ward,
Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West and University Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

[DoctorMu]

Could be worse:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
At 3 AM, sfc analysis showed a muddled sfc pressure field and a
weak pressure gradient with high pressure over the western Gulf.
at 850 MB, weak high pressure was noted over SE TX similar to
yesterday but 850 mb temps were just a bit cooler. At 300 mb, a
weak upper level shear axis extended from northern Mexico to near
Laredo then stretched E-W along I-10 into SW LA. Fcst soundings
show PW values between 1.90 and 2.10 inches today and this is
supported by GOES-R derived PW imagery. Convective temps are
between 86-88 degrees at Houston and between 90-91 degrees at
College Station. Storm motion will be between 5 and 10 knots so
locally heavy rain will be possible in the stronger storms. Fcst
soundings once again show an inverted V which typically indicates
some potential for gusty winds but winds aloft are so weak that
there doesn`t like there is enough wind energy to mix to the
surface. The GFS, HRRR and RAP have all initialized poorly and
each of those models brings a good chance of rain through the
region this morning. Will lean toward persistence which favors the
Texas Tech WRF and Hi-Res ARW. This means that daytime heating,
the sea breeze, residual boundaries from yesterdays convection and
the upper level shear axis will trigger shra/tsra later today.
Convective temps will be met around 17z so would expected storms
to initiate between 17-18z. Precipitation is expected to end
within a few hours of losing daytime heating, but fcst soundings
show ample moisture and instability and showers could linger a
bit longer tonight than currently forecast.

Monday and Tuesday look rather similar with daytime heating, a
weakness aloft and abundant moisture combining to give the region
another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some weak capping
tries to develop near 850 mb but daytime heating will break that
once temps warm into the upper 80s.

A flattish upper level ridge will develop near the Ozarks mid week
but heights are not extreme topping out near 594 DM. Not sure the
ridge will be strong enough to suppress rain chances. The center
of the developing ridge also looks far enough north to allow weak
disturbances to undercut it and push west into the region. Will
maintain chance/slight chance PoPS Wed-Fri due to ample moisture
and the sea breeze. The upper level ridge retrogrades westward
over the weekend. A weak upper level inverted trough will push
west and SE TX will lie on the east side of this feature by next
Sunday. Rain chances will likely go back up next Sunday and for
the first half of the following week. 43

[Katdaddy]

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ213-238-092030-
Galveston TX-Harris TX-
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Deer Park, moving north at 15 mph. Local media also reported small
hail in this storm.

Deadly lightning, torrential rainfall, small hail and gusty winds in
excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, northeastern League City, western Baytown, La Porte, Deer
Park, Seabrook, Webster, Kemah, Clear Lake, Channelview, Nassau Bay,
Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Shoreacres, Clear Lake Shores,
Morgan`s Point and Houston Ship Channel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

[jasons2k]

I haven't had any rain all week, and it's all missing me again today, by just a few miles. Can't catch a break now.

[Cromagnum]

I see the Houston and points south cap is holding strong. Can't get anything going to water my scorched yard.