July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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JDsGN
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srainhoutx wrote:
We seen some amazing sunrises from Coastal Storms and sunsets with inland Storms throughout the week. This is what I remember as a kid growing up in SE Texas in a "typical" summertime pattern.
I agree 100% on this. When I was a kid in the late 80s/early 90s there were daily pop up thunderstorms into the evenings for most of June and July it seemed. We wouldn't always get rain but there was always a storm within a few miles somewhere haha. Thanks for the update on this weekend. Looks like my trip to Royal Purple raceway tomorrow may get a bit wetter than I originally planned.
sau27
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JDsGN wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
We seen some amazing sunrises from Coastal Storms and sunsets with inland Storms throughout the week. This is what I remember as a kid growing up in SE Texas in a "typical" summertime pattern.
I agree 100% on this. When I was a kid in the late 80s/early 90s there were daily pop up thunderstorms into the evenings for most of June and July it seemed. We wouldn't always get rain but there was always a storm within a few miles somewhere haha. Thanks for the update on this weekend. Looks like my trip to Royal Purple raceway tomorrow may get a bit wetter than I originally planned.
Maybe my memory is a bit skewed (because I don't like the heat and enjoy storms), but I don't remember a summer since the early/mid 2000's where a ridge didn't set up shop over the plains and suffocate us in our own juices for months. Similar to what JDsGN said the current pattern is what I remember summers being like when I was growing up in the 90's and early 00's.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Hopefully we never have to experience a 2011 or 2000 again. Those were frickin' brutal Summers.

Straight from the deepest depths of HELL!
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Hopefully we never have to experience a 2011 or 2000 again. Those were frickin' brutal Summers.

Straight from the deepest depths of HELL!
Don't forget 1980... ;) I am showing my age just a bit, but I remember this sort of generally wet pattern with almost daily tropical showers and storms dating way back to the 60's and 70's as well. This Summer so far, has been what I grew up with. One thing I know several of us are watching keenly is the persistent flow pattern and steering currents as we approach "Prime Time" for Tropical Season. While we cannot predict if and where any potential tropical troubles my develop and pose a threat to the Coast, the current general pattern raise an eyebrow and I for one will be keeping a very close eye toward the Gulf and Caribbean Sea in the days and weeks ahead.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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srainhoutx wrote:Ingredients continue to come together suggesting increasing showers/storms developing tomorrow with an uptick in areal coverage Sunday through at least Tuesday as deep/rich tropical moisture with PW's near or slightly above 2.3 inches arrive as the remnants of an Easterly Wave currently across the Central and Northern Gulf advance West. Near the Yucatan Peninsula, an upper low is dropping SW toward the Bay of Campeche further assisting development along the Eastern flank of the weak wave axis. Another fly in the ointment is a weakness between the Western Heat Ridge and the Bermuda Ridge across our Region. Lowering pressures at the surface and aloft associated with this weakness suggests very heavy rainfall rates are possible with some locations picking up a quick 2-3 inches wherever the heaviest thunderstorms develop.

Image

Image

Generally I am expecting rainfall total of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts possibly nearing 6 inches+, if repeated rounds of storms organize. We are actually doing rather well in the rainfall department for most of our Region except for areas West of a College Station to Katy line for the month of July to date.

The Tropics remain quiet except for the EPAC and that should continue until around the end of July and early August when the Hemispheric Pattern may become much more conducive for Tropical Development in the North Atlantic Basin. I also wanted to note that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is at its lowest we have seen since that infamous year for Hurricanes in 2005.

We've seen some amazing sunrises from Coastal Storms and sunsets with inland Storms throughout the week. This is what I remember as a kid growing up in SE Texas in a "typical" summertime pattern.
Yeah, my yard and trees could use some rain. fingers crossed about the weekend.


Impressive intertropical convergence zone getting cranked up. Priming the pump for August.
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DoctorMu
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sau27 wrote:
JDsGN wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
We seen some amazing sunrises from Coastal Storms and sunsets with inland Storms throughout the week. This is what I remember as a kid growing up in SE Texas in a "typical" summertime pattern.
I agree 100% on this. When I was a kid in the late 80s/early 90s there were daily pop up thunderstorms into the evenings for most of June and July it seemed. We wouldn't always get rain but there was always a storm within a few miles somewhere haha. Thanks for the update on this weekend. Looks like my trip to Royal Purple raceway tomorrow may get a bit wetter than I originally planned.
Maybe my memory is a bit skewed (because I don't like the heat and enjoy storms), but I don't remember a summer since the early/mid 2000's where a ridge didn't set up shop over the plains and suffocate us in our own juices for months. Similar to what JDsGN said the current pattern is what I remember summers being like when I was growing up in the 90's and early 00's.
It ain't over yet with August to come...but indeed this is the first time during the 10 year drought where the Death Ridge has not parked and gotten out of the car over us before mid July.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Hopefully we never have to experience a 2011 or 2000 again. Those were frickin' brutal Summers.

Straight from the deepest depths of HELL!
1998, too. We lost a lot of trees in 2011. Bastrop nearly burned down to the ground. Many lost pines were permanently lost.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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tireman4
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21
FXUS64 KHGX 141721
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and storms should begin to pop up across inland
areas over the next few hours before diminishing this evening. VFR
conditions are generally expected at all terminals, with some
temporary lower conditions possible if a heavy shower or storm
moves directly over. A few MVFR obs will be possible around 15-16Z
tomorrow morning as the cumulus field begins to pop. Scattered
showers and storms are expected late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon, with more coverage than today. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 95 75 93 / 20 20 40 30 60
Houston (IAH) 93 76 92 76 90 / 30 20 50 30 70
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 80 87 / 30 20 40 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...11
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srainhoutx
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The deeper surge of tropical moisture is inching its way West bound across the Northern Gulf. The afternoon Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests rain chances may continue throughout the next 7 days. It is also notable to see Monsoon Season is underway across Mexico and the Desert SW.
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Texaspirate11
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The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southern Pearland, League City, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin,
Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe, Webster, Hitchcock, Manvel,
Hillcrest, Liverpool and Chocolate Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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mckinne63
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Hopefully we never have to experience a 2011 or 2000 again. Those were frickin' brutal Summers.

Straight from the deepest depths of HELL!
Agree! My "on this day" on facebook brings back very hot memories. While it is warm, at least we are getting some moisture and it's not STEAMING dry hot.
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Ptarmigan
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Top 10 Overall Warmest Summer (Low and High Temperature) Temperature
1.) 2011 86.07°F
2.) 1998 85.10°F
3.) 2009 84.73°F
4.) 1896 84.40°F
5.) 2010 84.27°F
6.) 1897 84.07°F
7.) 1980/2016 83.93°F
8.) 1958 83.87°F
9.) 1951 83.77°F
10.) 1899/2015 83.67°F

Last summer and the summer before was hot. 2016 ties with 1980! 2010 is warmer than 1980 due to low temperatures being abnormally warm.

Top 10 Overall Warmest High Summer Temperature
1.) 2011 96.57°F
2.) 1896 95.70°F
3.) 1897/2009 94.67°F
4.) 1998 94.40°F
5.) 1980 93.70°F
6.) 1948 93.63°F
7.) 1917 93.60°F
8.) 1918 93.53°F
9.) 1901 93.47°F
10.) 1951/1958/2000 93.43°F

Top 10 Warmest Low Summer Temperature
1.) 1998 75.83°F
2.) 2010 75.80°F
3.) 2016 75.70°F
4.) 2011 75.57°F
5.) 2015 74.80°F
6.) 2009 74.77°F
7.) 1993/2014 74.50°F
8.) 1999 74.40°F
9.) 1958 74.30°F
10.) 2012 74.27°F

2010, 2015, and 2016 were warm largely due to warm low temperatures. Low temperatures can be a factor for warm summers as much as high temperatures.

Imagine living in Houston in the late 19th Century to early 20th Century.

Really hot summers are an anomaly and some like 2011 are outliers.

They are from June to August.

All are based on Divisional Weather.
https://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp
javakah
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I hope the folks between Liberty and Beaumont pay a bit of attention to the weather tonight. There's a rather nasty little cell north of there heading SSW, that looks like it may be wanting to rotate a bit.
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Texaspirate11
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Its the Precipitation Powerball Game!
Disco H/GX

it is difficult to pinpoint exact locations of rainfall and with the
high moisture content, where locally heavy rainfall will occur.
Rainfall amounts each day could be zero or 1 to 3 inches in 1 to 2
hour time frame. Rainfall rates could easily reach 1 to 2 inches
an hour. For example, yesterday it rained 1.84 inches in less than
2 hours at my house, but my forecasting partner got no rain just
5 miles away. So you can think of getting heavy rainfall like
playing Powerball. If you hit all 6 numbers on the 6 balls, you
could get a lot of rain, or if you only get 1, then you get
nothing. However Sunday and Monday your chances of rain go up so it would be like playing Powerball with say 3 or 4 balls instead
of 6, and those balls may have fewer numbers on them. Should you it the jackpot, not only can you expect very heavy rainfall that
could cause localized street flooding, but you could also get lots"
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
848 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Montgomery-Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Harris-Chambers-Wharton-
Fort Bend-Jackson-Matagorda-Brazoria-Galveston-
Including the cities of The Woodlands, Conroe, Willis, Liberty,
Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy,
Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Houston,
Pasadena, Katy, Tomball, Humble, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac,
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Edna, Bay City, Palacios, Pearland, Lake Jackson,
Alvin, Angleton, Freeport, League City, Texas City, Friendswood,
and Galveston
848 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...Tropical Funnel Clouds Possible across Southeast Texas Today...

A moist and tropical air mass is currently over southeastern
Texas today. This is a favorable environment for producing
tropical funnel clouds. Most of these funnel clouds will be short
lived and will not reach the ground. However, you should be
prepared to seek shelter should one of these funnel clouds reach
the ground and become a tornado.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Strong storms moving SW into E Harris and N Galveston Counties.

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northeastern Baytown, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, eastern League City, Baytown, Texas City, La Porte, Deer
Park, Dickinson, South Houston, Seabrook, Webster, Beach City, Kemah,
Clear Lake, South Belt / Ellington, Highlands, Channelview, Greater
Hobby Area, Nassau Bay, southwestern Mont Belvieu and Taylor Lake
Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
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DoctorMu
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A couple of jackpots heading into the HGX area from the NE:

Image


Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 229 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Pleasantville
Area, or over Jacinto City, moving southwest at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Pasadena, Deer Park, South Houston, West University Place, Galena
Park, Jacinto City, Midtown Houston, Cloverleaf, Downtown Houston,
Second Ward, South Belt / Ellington, Neartown / Montrose, Greater
Eastwood, Near Northside Houston, Greater Fifth Ward, Greater Hobby
Area, Channelview, Greater Third Ward, Fourth Ward and University
Place.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-TX12585C505C50.SevereThunderstormWarning.12585C507A00TX.HGXSVRHGX.695f60234ac07de64d6adc3f9a91f9d9 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:24 CDT on 07-15-2017
Effective: 14:24 CDT on 07-15-2017
Expires: 15:00 CDT on 07-15-2017
Event: Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Madison County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 300 PM CDT.

* At 224 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles southeast
of Madisonville, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Huntsville and Crabbs Prairie.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
Instructions: For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Target Area:
Grimes
Madison
Walker
CrashTestDummy
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I was watching the radarange today, and biding my time so I could go mow the lawn before the rains hit. I watched as one storm heading our way kind of blew itself out, and the approaching storms looked like they had probably an hour to make it here. I got about 1/3 way through the back yard when it started raining. I quickly parked the mower and the pups and I ran inside. Then, the bottom sort of fell out!! We have had about 1.8" of rain in just about an hour, and the power has gone out 2X.

Looks like the yard will have to wait until at least tomorrow afternoon. :-(
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
unome
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/ ... autoreload

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 60459/0100

LIGHTNING
0
*** 1 INJ *** MALE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN GRANGERLAND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FM 1485 AND FM 3083.
5 SE CONROE, TX
2017-07-15 19:00:00Z

when thunder roars, go indoors !
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Image
Image

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 357 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles north of Prairie View, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Hempstead, Prairie View, Hockley, Waller, Pine Island and
Monaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9595 3014 9580 3009 9580 3009 9575
3006 9572 2993 9605 3024 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 330DEG 20KT 3020 9599

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
11

Tornado Warning
TXC291-373-407-152130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0047.170715T2054Z-170715T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
South central Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 354 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Coldspring, or 11 miles southwest of Livingston,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Shepherd, Coldspring, Lake Livingston State Park and southern West
Livingston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 9512 3065 9499 3038 9494 3038 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 004DEG 13KT 3058 9506

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
11
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