June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[Cromagnum]

More westward means more time over water

[StormOne]

00z GFS trended Westward. Hugging Sabine now. 999mb (low-mid grade TS) @ landfall.

[Andrew]

00Z ECMWF shows a direct hit over Houston and has it as a much more organized system.

[don]

European shifted west and shows the center of the storm making landfall around Galveston and brings very heavy rainfall across Southeast Texas as the storm starts to slow down as it moves inland. It shows widespread rainfall amounts of 3-7 inches.

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile in NW Harris County we are getting a noisy thunderstorm. Thunder rattled the house and woke me up from a deep sleep.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z ECMWF EPS suggests the ensemble members are well clustered along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast. I will not be surprised to see Watches and Warnings extended West a bit further into SE Texas and possibly as far as Matagorda Bay later today. Also it is noteworthy that the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast has increased rainfall amounts rather dramatically into East Texas over the next 72 hours and continuing throughout the 7 day period across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 200852
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is
struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and
the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the
system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.

The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern
portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and
Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen
some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a
little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn
around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into
the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track
guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast
track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model
consensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the
circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards
extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to
not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer
overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant
strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an
upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale
models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One
change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more
likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a
tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and
interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said,
development into a tropical cyclone remains possible.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Belmer]

Euro run this morning has shifted slightly west and seems to have increased intensity.
The 00z NAM 3km showed a TX/LA landfall. The 06z run has it now making landfall again in Galveston at hurricane status.

I expect coastal SE TX counties to be added to at the least, a Tropical Storm warning sometime later today (my bet by 11am).

[Katdaddy]

Another day of watching the movement and models. PTC 3 has become slightly more organized overnight and continue to move NW. The model consensus shifted W overnight. The NHC has shifted its path W to the TX/LA border. A TS Watch remain for Chambers and Jefferson Counties with TS Warnings extended W to Cameron, LA.

If models continue to shift W this morning; I expect the watches and warnings to also extended further W along the Upper TX Coast. Winds are already turning to N/NE along the Upper TX Coast.

[srainhoutx]

50 members of the 00Z ECMWF Ensembles also suggest an Upper Texas Coast landfall is very possible.

[TexasBreeze]

6z GFS paints 6-10 inches of rain over the northern half of SE TX from ptc3.

[ticka1]

I see a nice tropical wave in the GOM - not sure if I like this new system - lots of folks think it is hurricane but it's not even Tropical depression. Like I said before I think all the rain will be east of us and se Texas get very little. Look outside this morning - not a cloud in the sky.

[snowman65]

Keeping a close eye on things here in Orange....

[mcheer23]

Expecting a few more west shifts.

[mcheer23]

I see a nice tropical wave in the GOM - not sure if I like this new system - lots of folks think it is hurricane but it's not even Tropical depression. Like I said before I think all the rain will be east of us and se Texas get very little. Look outside this morning - not a cloud in the sky.

I dont know what makes you think that .. I think 4+ is a good bet east of 45
2+ west of 45

We're in the "slight" zone for day 3 excessive rainfall

[srainhoutx]

The reason for the drier air over us this morning is a very weak and defused frontal boundary dropped in, but is already washing out. Remember when a tropical system is to our SE in the Central Gulf, NE flow is expected with the cyclonic circulation associated with the broad surface low. First visible satellite imagery suggests the system continues to organize and a circulation center has consolidated S of Morgan City about 380 miles offshore of the Louisiana Coast. Movement is to the NW around 8 MPH, but the "center" remains exposed due to SW wind shear. That said it is likely we will have TS Cindy before the day is done. We should get some spectacular images from GOES 16 today and tomorrow!

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors and members in the NWS Lake Charles Area:

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE LOCAL STATEMENT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA AL032017
710 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CAMERON

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON, AND WEST
CAMERON
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CAMERON, IBERIA,
LOWER ST. MARTIN, ST. MARY, AND VERMILION

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LA OR ABOUT 290
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LA
- 25.4N 90.3W
- STORM INTENSITY 40 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

AS OF 7 AM CDT, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. A THREAT
FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE RAINBANDS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST LATE
TONIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF
CAMERON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COASTAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION COULD POSSIBLY SEE 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT A FEW EVACUATIONS.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY RISE WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS.
SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME SWOLLEN
AND OVERFLOW IN SPOTS.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER A FEW STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
VULNERABLE SPOTS. A FEW PLACES WHERE RAPID PONDING OF WATER
OCCURS AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SEVERAL STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS BECOME
NEAR-FULL AND BEGIN TO OVERFLOW. SOME BRIEF ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED AND HANDY. ALSO, CELL PHONE CHARGERS
FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN BE HELPFUL AFTER THE STORM. LOCATE YOUR CHARGERS
AND KEEP THEM WITH YOUR CELL PHONE.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT
RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LA AROUND 11 AM CDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As we head into the Summer Solstice late tonight...all eyes are
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC3). This broad low over
the central Gulf is slowly advancing north along the far eastern
periphery of a Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Today`s forecast
movement of the low has it traveling west of north...or towards
the Texas-Louisiana line (Sabine River Valley). This morning`s NHC
advisory update has this (sub)tropical system strengthening to
Tropical Storm Cindy latter today with a landfall somewhere
between Galveston Bay and the central Louisiana coastline Thursday
morning. Sustained Tropical Storm winds will graze our eastern-
most Gulf waters. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for our
eastern waters from tomorrow morning through Thursday morning.

Another partially cloudy...hot and fairly humid day today as
afternoon temperatures eclipse the 90 F mark by 11 AM...topping
out in the interior middle 90s to coastal lower 90s by 4 PM.
Although difficult to discern within the surface analysis...there
is a diffuse surface boundary draped somewhere over the southern
half of the CWA...with PTC3/TS Cindy pulling this boundary further
south. Regional northeasterlies will begin to strengthen through
the day...more pronounced over the open waters to Small Craft
Advisories by late this afternoon for all Gulf waters (except for
the nearshore western waters and Matagorda Bay). Chances for Gulf
showers and thunderstorms will begin increasing over the next 24
to 36 hours to likely by tomorrow morning as PTC3/TS Cindy`s
northwestern convective bands begin to creep into our marine
zones. Wednesday into Thursday is when this (sub)tropical system
moves onshore somewhere over the upper Texas to southwestern
Louisiana coastline. The main threats appear to be mainly focused
on the marine with elevated water levels and tropical storm level
winds. The main eastern-southeastern county threat will be
locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding as bands of storms
rotate inland along the northwestern sector of PTC3/TS Cindy.
Skies will become mainly overcast tomorrow...with moderate
northeast winds...morning lower 80s with afternoon middle 90s over
the NW`ern CWA to around 90 F over the southeastern third of the
CWA (counties surrounding Galveston Bay) per the overcast and
periodic precipitation. More frequent rounds of precipitation
Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as PTC3/TS Cindy makes
landfall over the upper Texas/southwestern Louisiana coastline.
Needless to say...but an overcast and more wet end to the work
week.

The remnants of PTC3/Cindy will move north into eastern-northeastern
Texas through Thursday afternoon and be entering the ArkLaTex region
that evening. Eastern CWA POPS will remain at least high chance
through Thursday night...tapering off to low to moderate chances
for showers and storms early Friday. Storm total QPF for the eastern
half of the forecast area (through early Saturday) will average
between 2 to 4 inches...with locally 6 to 8 inches not completely
out of the question if the storm jogs more west than north.

Weekend weather has weak ridging attempting to make a comeback
with winds returning to onshore...mostly cloudy and humid with
average minTs in the upper 70s / average maxTs in the lower 90s.
Precipitation chances remain high...especially close to the
coast...as this is where the height weakness channel will lie
with a series of shortwave disturbances moving parallel to the
Gulf coast. Extremely high pwat air mass above 2 inches with weak
cyclonic-turning mid levels and unstable profiles all point to an
unsettled first weekend of the summer season.

A weak boundary moving into the area early next week will keep an
unsettled picture in place through the end of the period. Slightly
cooler middle levels...overcast with occasional rain/thunderstorm
occurrences will regulate early work week warmth to closer to 90
F than 95 F / overnight middle 70s. Precipitation chances remain
in the moderate chance category through mid week...with higher
probabilities focused across the southern third of the area where
the higher moisture/theta e axis is modeled to reside. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Pres gradient will tighten today and tonight and winds and seas will
increase to Small Craft Advsy criteria. Obviously, the fcst for the
next couple days is highly dependent on the evolution/track of the
disturbance in the Gulf. NHC adjusted their track westward, which
would bring some TS force gusts in the extreme se parts of the 20-
60nm offshore waters south of GLS as early as ~4am tonight. Went
ahead and hoisted a TS Watch there which, dependent on later
data/trends, may or may not need to be expanded north with time.

Tides: Currently running ~0.7 ft above normal in the Galveston Bay
area. They too will be highly dependent on the track of the
disturbance and if we remain on the west side (offshore flow) or
east side (onshore flow). If on the west side, we`ll probably see
a slight bump (possibly to total observed slightly above 3 ft mllw
at the beaches at high tide Wed) followed by levels falling to
1-2 ft below normal as it gets blown out Wed night and Thurs.
However, if we somehow get on the east side, coastal flooding
would be a decent bet especially at times of high tide. Low
confidence at this point unfortunately, esp east of Freeport. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
Patch 4-6sm fog across northern parts of se Tx will burn off shortly
after sunrise. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions expected today and
tonight. May see some iso shra/tstms near the coast 21-02Z, but
minimal impacts expected. Main aviation issue in the next 24-36
hours will be increasing nne winds, esp near the coast, as the
pressure gradient tightens. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 76 94 75 92 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 94 77 92 76 87 / 10 10 40 70 50
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 86 80 87 / 20 20 70 80 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from High Island
to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones: Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 9 AM this morning to 4
PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

If the center gets tugged under the convection it's gonna be a shift to the east. Will have to watch satellite very closely today.

[srainhoutx]

If the center gets tugged under the convection it's gonna be a shift to the east. Will have to watch satellite very closely today.

While it is possible, these sheared broad monsoonal gyres with an elongated broad surface circulation are typically influenced by the low level flow versus a vertically stacked Tropical Cyclone. The Bermuda Ridge is influencing the generally Easterly flow at the surface. It appears to me in the 24 frame visible GOES 16 imagery the general motion is to the NW and possibly WNW of the elongated low. Shear would probably need to collapse for this mess to organize under the deeper convection to the N and E.