June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 35m35 minutes ago
Newest Calibrated ECMWF EPS hot off press- 80% chance of development or higher for both #93L and #92L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 2).

[tireman4]

Dear All,

This is just a heads up. With the Tropical season upon us, make sure ( whether a system is in the waters or not), to go over your hurricane kits and plans of action if an area is threatened. Make sure to stay tuned here with our pro mets (Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew, Brooks, David and Jeff) helping to get you through whatever comes ( Winter/Summer/Spring/Fall). This event, if it ever becomes an event, will be everchanging. Monitor your public sources (tv, NOAA weather radio, the KHOU Forum) and be weather aware. This is my PSA each year. One last item. Make sure to be patient with our mets. They are monitoring all situations and sometimes they cannot give you exact answers for Mother Nature is quite quirky. Remember, to be patient with them and they will do their best to guide you.

[Electric Lizard]

Do y'all think that the MCS pushing south (now near Waco) will make it to SE Texas?

[djmike]

When do you guys think the NHC will add the cone for 93?

[srainhoutx]

Do y'all think that the MCS pushing south (now near Waco) will make it to SE Texas?

We'll need to monitor the outflow boundary across our Northern Areas then a potential seabreeze boundary advancing N from the Coat toward Metro Houston later this afternoon and evening. HGX is currently watching this situation closely and mentioned it in their Updated AFD at 7:00 AM.

[tireman4]

Do y'all think that the MCS pushing south (now near Waco) will make it to SE Texas?

Echoing what Steve said..sorry...LOL


A change in the recently static forecast for aviators today. A
storm system passing across northeastern Texas this morning may
spit out a gust front ahead of a weak larger scale frontal
boundary that will be entering our northern counties just as late
morning temperatures warm into the upper 80s. Lift from a outflow
boundary into a near 90 F and moist air mass will increase the
odds of near noon thunderstorm development across the northern
terminals. Further south...an advancing sea breeze boundary into the
second tier counties by early afternoon may generate late morning
towering cumulus/showers that could transition to more metro area
early to mid afternoon thunderstorm behavior. Late afternoon through
early evening convection will be all mesoscale-driven and northern
storm southern-propagating gust fronts may interact with sea
breeze-driven cells. Inland activity should dwindle down by late
evening with the short range higher resolution models developing
evening (near) coastal county precipitation ahead...or along this
aforementioned larger scale boundary as it becomes more diffuse on
its southern trek to the coast.

[srainhoutx]

Not that we trust the NAM with tropical/sub tropical systems, but...the point remains the same with the reliable guidance.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 3m3 minutes ago
Extremely messy Gulf of Mexico picture. Many Vorticity maxes interacting; lots of room for model error #slopgyre

[DoctorMu]

Do y'all think that the MCS pushing south (now near Waco) will make it to SE Texas?

I'm prepared for the AggieDome to crush it. leaving us bust again.


It is significant as a marker of the SW ridge drifting east, leaving a gap for the Gulf tropical whatever to move through. We're almost at Nowcasting for this tropical system. Fabulous discussion from Jeff this morning, Srain. Thanks as always for sharing.

The trough axis has emerged nicely along the Yucatan:

[DoctorMu]

Do y'all think that the MCS pushing south (now near Waco) will make it to SE Texas?

We'll need to monitor the outflow boundary across our Northern Areas then a potential seabreeze boundary advancing N from the Coat toward Metro Houston later this afternoon and evening. HGX is currently watching this situation closely and mentioned it in their Updated AFD at 7:00 AM.

Yes - boundary waves are on their way. There will be an eye out this afternoon for any action.

[DoctorMu]

Update: MCV being sandblasted at the Brazos Co. line as expected.



FAQ from HGX up re: 93L if anyone interested.

[jasons2k]

You don't see this every day.

If you look at Hi-Res satellite loops over SE Texas this morning, you can see the low-level flow slowly shift from onshore, to offshore, in response to lowering pressures in the Gulf. This is evidenced by the cumulus clouds moving onshore, stalling, and then reversing as the flow switches.

[brooksgarner]

That GOES-16 imagery is fascinating. Hopefully the 403rd wing can find some good data for us to track this thing.
https://twitter.com/403PA

Watching those westward tracking vorts north of the Yucatan raises my eyebrow.

Happy tracking,
BG

[srainhoutx]

Keeping a close eye near 25N and 89W. That area appears to be gaining a bit of convection as it move generally WNW in the Central Gulf.

[jasons2k]

Wonder if this will be another Claudette...I keep looking at that one...

[davidiowx]

Wonder if this will be another Claudette...I keep looking at that one...

The 1979 Claudette?

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high... 80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high... 80 percent.

A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for portions of this area later today.

Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. For more information on this system, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high... 80 percent.

[srainhoutx]

The NHC indicated in their 2:00PM EDT Tropical Outlook Update that Watches may be required along portions of the Gulf Coast later this afternoon basically somewhere from the Middle Texas Coast back East to Florida.

The 12Z ECMWF suggests a potential landfall somewhere near Freeport to Galveston Bay.

[Scott747]

I'd look for them to upgrade this in their new system to ptc 3 later this afternoon or evening with watches/warnings going up from Pensacola to as far south as corpus depending on what track they go with. 12z euro came in further n so corpus may be a too far s.

[TexasBreeze]

Seems to be converging on southern LA coast now. The new system is real neat, but the potential watch breakpoints seems really wide apart and could cover 5 state coasts. That is many many miles long. Only drawback.

[tireman4]

Some of the models are saying Upper Texas Coast ( Canadian, UKMET, ECMWF, NAM). Goodness knows where, if or when this even happens.