June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[DoctorMu]

Over 5" and higher here in Bmt. Many roads closed due to flooding. Heaviest rains now moving east and offshore but another system to affect us later tonight/overnight and Monday and Tuesday. Hadnt had a drop of rain in 36 days but today it sure made up for it. Light rain now. Lighting and thunder were intense. Now just a constant rolling thunder. Nice for a relax and due nothing Sunday. Might take me a nap.

Gotta love Texas. Feast or famine in the precipitation department.
Anyways attention shifts to our west as more develops for the afternoon and evening hours.

No kidding. We had a month of nothing in April - May. A few busts in late May...then came up aces last night. 4 inches IMBY altogether in clusters...

[BlueJay]

Currently we are enjoying a generous helping of rain! Nice timing for the watering of the lawn schedule.

[Texaspirate11]

Galvesotn experienced flooding this morning - now this area
Me? Here I am stuck in the middle with you: NADA
Take care y'all

Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
312 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 310 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported showers and
thunderstorms producing very heavy rain across the warned area.
Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, and an additional
2 to 4 inches are possible. Flash flooding is expected, especially
in the Sugar Land and Mission Bend areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Sugar Land, Missouri City, eastern Rosenberg, Stafford, Bellaire,
West University Place, Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village,
Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Northside / Northline,
Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North, Greater Heights,
Town West, Memorial Park, Spring Branch West, First Colony, Spring
Valley and Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

[srainhoutx]

I have received almost 5 inches of rain since this morning. That makes my totals since last Sunday night/early Monday over 7 inches in the rain gauge. Will need to monitor the shortwave near Big Bend for additional heavy rainfall through tomorrow as that upper level feature drops SE into our Region.

tmp_5263-mcd02971524403122.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0297 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 353 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 042000Z - 050000Z SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING HIGHLY EFFICIENT LINE OF CONVECTION MAY POSE SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT PARTICULARLY IN URBAN CORRIDOR/HOUSTON METROPLEX DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST WV LOOP DENOTES A WEAK TWIST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX NEAR BAZ SHIFTING EAST. AHEAD OF IT MODEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM 5H AND ABOVE SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND MAINTENANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MCS THAT LEAD TO FF ALONG THE UPPER TX/W LA COAST THIS MORNING HAS KICKED AN OUTFLOW WEST THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO DENOTED IN HGX REFLECTIVITY...THIS IS AN ADDED ELEMENT OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHERE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING (NOT AFFECTED BY MCS CIRRUS SHIELD) SUPPORTED MID TO UPPER 80F TEMPS INCREASING MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG (TOWARD THE COAST). SURFACE TDS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S AND FAIRLY SATURATED MID-LEVELS SUPPORT TPWS TO 2.0". AS SUCH PARAMETERS SUPPORT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF 2"/HR RAIN RATES. LOW LEVEL FLUX IS NOT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT INCREASED RATES THOUGH ALSO ALLOWS FOR NEAR ZERO PROPAGATION VECTORS PER THE RECENT RAP AND WITH CLOUD BARING MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS IN A DIFFLUENT REGIME. CURRENT RADAR DENOTES THE OUTFLOW AS WELL AS THE MID-LEVEL TROF FORCING LINE ARE WELL ESTABLISHED AND LIKELY TO MERGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR IN PROXIMITY TO THE HOUSTON METRO WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY. AS SUCH RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME HI-RES CAMS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 5" WHICH MAY NOT BE FULLY RULED OUT GIVEN SLOW MOTIONS/RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND MERGERS. TOWARD 23-00Z THE COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH HOUSTON TOWARD SE TX AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE IN INTENSITY DUE TO STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE/NO RECHARGE FROM SOLAR INSOLATION AT PEAK HEATING. GALLINA ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...

[unome]

https://twitter.com/HoustonOEM/status/8 ... 8334821376

.@cohoustonfire reporting many calls for help in stranded vehicles across the City. Wait for rain to clear before traveling. #houwx

[mckinne63]

Finally getting some rain here in Stafford. Last night we saw an awesome lightshow driving back from Angleton, but did not see a drop of rain.

[mckinne63]

I have received almost 5 inches of rain since this morning. That makes my totals since last Sunday night/early Monday over 7 inches in the rain gauge. Will need to monitor the shortwave near Big Bend for additional heavy rainfall through tomorrow as that upper level feature drops SE into our Region.

We got zippo yesterday and none until about 45 mintues ago. I think we are making up for lost time now. It is coming down pretty good. But skies appear to be clearing.

[unome]

http://cohweb.houstontx.gov/ActiveIncid ... bined.aspx

FD WILCREST DR 489U 06/04/2017 15:54 Water Rescue N
FD SYNOTT RD 528C 06/04/2017 15:52 Water Rescue N
FD LONG POINT RD BLK FOLEY ST 450U 06/04/2017 15:50 Water Rescue N
FD BRIARBROOK DR 489M 06/04/2017 15:44 Water Rescue N
FD KIMBERLEY LN 489G 06/04/2017 15:30 Water Rescue N

[Cromagnum]

Looks like another line forming up near Victoria.

[Texaspirate11]

Well, I got a spit and a holla' finally
but seeing how others were flooding out, I'm not complaining.

[Katdaddy]

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties until noon with heavy rains moving along the coast currently. The SPC has SW portions of SE TX in a marginal risk area and portions of STX in a slight risk area for severe weather. Satellite shows the upper level low that will move across SE TX today resulting in locally heavy rains and some strong storms.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Slow moving upper level trough remains over TX with additional rounds of heavy rainfall today.

Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Brazoria, Chambers, and Galveston Counties until noon.

While air mass has stabilized some from the excessive rainfall on Sunday, it will quickly destabilize this morning as cooler air aloft moves over the region and we get some surface heating. Thunderstorm complexes yesterday produced several areas of 2-5 inches of rainfall with an much as 7 inches over Chambers County. Surface trough along the coast has erupted with numerous heavy thunderstorms in the last few hours…same locations that were hard hit yesterday morning. An outflow boundary is progressing NNE from this activity and currently extends from Bay City to Hobby Airport to Winnie. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms to develop along this boundary and others as temperatures warm into the lower 80’s by late morning. Cells look to have a bit more motion today compared to yesterday, but still looking at motions around 10kts. Air mass remains nearly saturated with PWS hovering around 2.0 inches. This along with the storm cell motions will continue to support very heavy rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour especially where organized convection forms.

Grounds have become nearly saturated along and south of US 59 from the several previous days of rainfall so additional heavy rains will quickly run-off into bayous and creeks. Hard to pin point any one area that may have flooding since so much of the activity is being driven on small scale boundaries.

Upper air trough will begin to progress to the east of the region late Tuesday with a general drying trend. Will likely see another active day on Tuesday…not as active as yesterday or today before much drier air moves into the region on Wednesday ending rain chances.

[tireman4]

I do wonder if they will get the Texas A&M/ UH Game in at Cougar Baseball Field. The game is set for 12 noon, but.....


FXUS64 KHGX 051139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms were developing along the coast and
moving inland to the I-10 corridor at 1130Z. This is in line with
some of the high resolution models which show the best coverage
this morning from KHOU southward to the coast. For the late
morning through the afternoon, short range and high resolution
models show best potential areawide but with disagreements on
timing. For this reason, stayed with vicinity forecasts for
thunderstorms. Should be able to pinpoint timing with the 12Z and
later model runs. Think the models have a better handle on the
forecast for the coastal sites through 21Z.

The upper low will continue to shear out over the state tonight.
This should keep chances for at least showers over most area
through this evening.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/

UPDATE...
A quick update to raise PoPs for the coast and issue a Flash Flood
Watch for the coastal counties of Brazoria, Galveston and
Chambers through 17z. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low was located over west central Texas early this
morning and this feature will move east today and be located over
SE TX by late this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows this
feature clearly and it looks like there are three disturbances
rotating around this feature that will pivot into SE TX today.
Lift on the east side of the trough coupled with PW values near
1.9 inches, lower heights and convective temps between 82 and 84
degrees should provide SE TX with one more day of showers and
thunderstorms. Slow storm motion and high PW values will also
contribute to some locally heavy rain totals once again. Soil
moisture is now considerably higher and the threat for flash
flooding is higher than the past few days. A Flash Flood Watch
may be required. Will be watching radar trends closely and make a
decision on the watch based on radar returns over the next couple
of hours. Short term guidance is suggesting a swath of heavy rain
along the coast between 10-15z and that area was hit hard
yesterday with 5-7 inches of rain. Fcst soundings also show an
inverted V signature for this afternoon with CAPE values around
2500 J/Kg. SPC has outlooked the southern third of the CWA in
marginal risk and would not be surprised if some of the stronger
storms this afternoon produced some gusty winds.

Will keep rain chances in the forecast tonight as a weak cold
front crosses SE TX and upper trough remains close. The NAM in
particular is aggressive with PW values exceeding 2.00 inches and
nearly saturated moisture profiles. PW values on Tuesday are now
trending higher than they were yesterday with peak values reaching
1.80 inches. Convective temps warm some from today but even at
85-86 degrees, convection should be able to develop in the
afternoon. Will broad brush 40-50 PoPs with the higher PoPs over
the east and coastal regions.

Some drying should commence Tuesday night into Wednesday and PW
values fall to around 1.3 inches. A capping inversion tries to
develop on Wednesday but convective temps remain reachable with
values around 88 degrees. Am not currently mentioning PoPs on
Wednesday but would not be surprised if isolated PoPs may be
needed for the afternoon.

A surge of drier air will enter the area Wednesday night with sfc
dew points falling into the 50s on Thursday. Generally clear skies
are expected Thursday and Friday with a large diurnal range in
temps. Min temps cooling into the mid/upper 60s in June. What a
treat! Some cirrus will skirt the region Saturday and onshore
winds will bring warmer temperatures and higher humidity back for
the weekend. 850 temps warm up quickly and sfc high temps will
respond and be back into the lower 90`s next Sunday and Monday. A
capping inversion will likely limit rainfall but a weak short wave
could bring a few showers across SE TX on Sunday. 43

MARINE...
Thunderstorms were developing early this morning off of the coast
near Freeport. Models show the potential for storms throughout the
day as an upper low continues to move eastward across the state.
Caution conditions due to winds early should diminish by sunrise;
however, do expect high winds and seas near and in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Offshore winds will develop early Tuesday as a cold
front moves off of the coast. High pressure building in from the
plains into Texas will then help to swing the winds around to the
northeast by Wednesday. Caution conditions are possible as well on
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as the high pressure ridge
interacts with the low pressure area over the southern Atlantic
coastal areas. The winds are then expected to diminish Wednesday
night and Thursday as the high pressure ridge builds further
southward. Onshore winds are expected by Friday.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 71 88 68 89 / 60 40 30 0 10
Houston (IAH) 88 72 88 71 90 / 60 40 40 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 86 76 87 / 70 40 50 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for the following zones:
Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40

[srainhoutx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
930 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.UPDATE...
Heavy rain along the coast has pushed offshore with outflow from
the back side of the storms moving northwest through the area.
Have dropped the flash flood watch a little early with the lull
of convection. Strong storms still possible over the Gulf water
for 2 to 3 more hours as the storms ride the rain-cooled boundary.
Convective temperature of 79-82 today will be easily reachable
across SETX...for that matter to the northwest of the area as
well. Tightly wound vort max will aid lift and destabilize the
airmass today as it spins across the area and expect showers and
eventually thunderstorms to become scattered with daytime heating
reaching the convective temps. Slow moving storms will be the rule
today with heavy downpours and gusty winds. Weak wind profile and
low convective temperatures will likely limit the likelihood of
wind gusts in excess of 40 knots...but unfortunately the wet
ground could lead to more toppling of poorly rooted trees. Will
probably see some isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches today
with the slow moving storms dotting the areas from Huntsville to
Brenham to Edna through mid afternoon. The storms should
eventually propagate east and southeast which could put them over
more concrete and areas where heavier rains have fallen more
recently. So Metro street flooding will likely be a threat late
afternoon/early evening. 45

[unome]

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/8 ... 4831825921
Storms developing this afternoon. Brief heavy rainfall possible. #bcswx #houwx

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
North central Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
South central Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 115 PM CDT.

* At 1212 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to slow moving thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area. One to two inches of rain has already fallen and another inch is possible.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rosenberg, Richmond, Sealy, Pecan Grove, East Bernard, Wallis, Fulshear, Simonton, Orchard, Weston Lakes, Cumings and Cinco Ranch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

[Katdaddy]

A few showers and thunderstorms on radar this morning. One more day of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across Central and SE portions of SE TX as the upper level low pressure trough moves slowly E into LA. Drier air and lots of sun from Wednesday through the weekend.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Water vapor imagery shows upper low over the north central Gulf
of Mexico with NE flow over SE Texas. There is enough moisture in
the boundary layer to support convection today but coverage is not
expected to be as great as compared to the last couple of days.
Most TAFs will have a combination of VCSH/VCTS for a few hours
this afternoon. It will take some day time heating before
convection develops. Storm motions will be from the N to NE across
the area and convection should end in the evening with the loss
of heating. Other than a few patchy spots of MVFR/IFR this
morning, ceilings should mainly be VFR through the day and
tonight.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure trough will continue to move slowly
eastward east of Texas. A model consensus shows a surface low
forming over the Gulf coastline between LA and FL later today and
tonight. This will help offshore winds to pick up and a drier air
mass to move overhead of Southeast Texas later tonight and
Wednesday. For today the best chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be mainly along and east of a line from El
Campo to Livingston. For areas east of Angleton, more widespread
coverage will be possible this afternoon. The NAM Bufr model
forecast soundings have an inverted V profile below 850 mb by
around mid afternoon indicating the potential for gusty winds in
the stronger storms. Otherwise, PWs are lower than yesterday and
expect storm motion to be faster than what has occurred for some
areas over the past few days.

Over the remainder of the week, the GFS and ECMWF differ a bit in
how the 500 mb pattern will develop. Both show a ridge building
over the Rockies during the mid week period as the trough over
the Gulf coast moves northeastward and merges with the upper low
over New England and NY. By the end of the week both differ on how
the pattern will develop over SE Texas. The ECMWF builds a weak
ridge across the Gulf of Mexico from the east and the Pacific
across Mexico to the west, with a weakness in the ridge over
Texas. The GFS takes the weakness and develops an upper low over
the Texas coast by Saturday.

In either scenario, drier conditions with normal daytime high
temperatures for this time of year are expected through the end of
the week into early next week. Rain chances will return by Sunday
as the weakness in the ridge/weak upper low forms over the area.
For now am only expected isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms toward the coast on Sunday. Better chances will then
occur over the inland areas on Monday as the upper level weakness
drifts westward.

40

MARINE...
Latest buoy data from 42035 and 42019 show basically calm winds with
a 7-8 second 2-3ft swell. Surface analysis has a weak area of low
pressure over the Mississippi River delta allowing for a pressure
gradient supporting light northerly winds. The expectation is for
light/moderate northerly winds along the Upper Texas Coast for today
into tonight. A frontal boundary is forecast to push off the Gulf
coast and should increase northeast winds tonight into Wednesday
morning. Small craft exercise caution may be needed tonight.

Moderate northeast winds should continue until Friday when southeast
winds develop. Southeast winds increase over the weekend with low to
moderate seas.

Tide levels should remain near or maybe a half foot above normal for
the next few days. Northeast winds on Thursday could push tides a
little higher for western areas of Galveston Bay. Overall winds
remain light to moderate from the northeast to east for the end of
the week and only have a minimal impact on tide levels.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 68 90 65 88 / 20 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 71 91 67 88 / 50 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 88 75 85 / 60 30 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[tireman4]

026
FXUS64 KHGX 062034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms wrapping around the back side of
the upper trough gracing eastern counties of SETX to the coast and
into the nearshore waters. These should continue to develop and
track south but with a gradual shift of the active corridor to the
east. Brief rainfall of .05-0.25" with the passage of these has
been the case and don`t see much change in that. Gusty winds of
20-30 mph possible.

This evening expect the storms to wane quickly and be focused
around the Galveston Bay area then spreading into the coastal
waters. Skies should clear out this evening with dry and cooler
weather to follow. High pressure will continue to build over TX
Wed-Thu before sliding east Friday. This will set the stage for
dry and pleasant weather for early June almost Chamber of
Commerce weather. Friday the flow turns around to the south and
strengthens and may get a gusty Saturday and especially Sunday but
it will take some time before the recirculated air departs and
richer Gulf moisture arrives Saturday night. Min temps will be on
the rise Sat and Sun after a stretch of cool mornings thanks to
that drier air. Sunday and Monday rain chances will start to
increase as LLJ strengthens and spreads north into the area as an
upper level disturbance drops down into the trailing trough axis.
Timing currently favoring Monday with greater rain chances and
have capped them at 40% until confidence increases.

45

&&

.MARINE...
Though winds have begun to pick up out of the north at buoys 42035
and 42019, seas are still 1 to 2 feet there. With winds picking up
to 15 to 20 knots out of the north/northeast tonight as a weak front
moves through, seas also look to build to 3 to 4 feet, and small
craft should exercise caution overnight into Wednesday morning.

Light to moderate winds are expected to continue into the weekend,
though they should veer from northeasterly to onshore sometime on
Friday. With the long fetch and persistent direction this weekend
into early next week, seas will build. How much winds and seas
increase may be driven by the development of a low pressure center
over the Plains early next week. If this low is strong enough, the
pressure gradient may become tight enough for winds and/or waves to
be at least SCEC-level, but potentially reach low-end small craft
advisory levels. Something to pay attention to in the coming days.

Luchs

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 90 65 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 91 67 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 76 88 75 85 75 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...25

[srainhoutx]

A quiet weather week ahead with warm and dry conditions continuing into the weekend.

Looking ahead to the longer range, I am seeing some hints that a strong monsoonal trough will begin festering across Central America and lift North around the 15th to 20th timeframe. There are some indications that a couple of potential Tropical Trouble Makers may spin up somewhere in the Eastern Pacific near the Gulf of Tehuantepec on East into the Western Caribbean and possibly the Gulf. It is typical to see some sort of monsoonal gyre develop in such a pattern, so it will be worth monitoring over the next week. If we see additional reliable Global Guidance 'sniff' this pattern out, then attention may turn to our South. Tis that time of year.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 071201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
701 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Quiet aviation weather conditions are expected today. VFR
conditions should continue with light/moderate northerly winds
this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Wed Jun 7 2017/

DISCUSSION...
With the upper level trough moving well east of the area, today
will start a dry period with near seasonal normal high
temperatures that will last through at least Friday and more
likely Saturday. A surface high pressure ridge sill settle over
the state. This will lead to late night and early morning low
temperatures dropping into the 60s Thursday, Friday and Saturday
morning with some locations seeing 5 degrees or more below normal
lows.

An increased onshore flow will then help to start a warming trend
at least for nighttime temperatures Saturday night and Sunday
morning. Still looking at rain chances returning to the coastal
waters by Saturday night and the land areas on Sunday as an upper
level low or trough of low pressure develops over the region. The
models keep this unsettled weather pattern over Southeast Texas
through Tuesday with mainly daytime chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
Latest buoy data from 42035 and 42019 show northerly winds near 15
to 18 knots and seas just around 3 feet. Wind speeds of 15 to 20
knots should persist through mid morning and help seas build to
maybe 3 to 4 feet. Small craft exercise caution looks to be on track
to end as scheduled.

Moderate northeast winds should continue until Friday when southeast
winds develop. Low seas may build some on Sunday in response to
stronger southeast winds with a long fetch. The fetch will help
drive seas up Sunday night into Monday and small craft exercise
caution may be needed again for the beginning of the week.

Tide levels should remain near or maybe a half foot above normal for
the next few days. Northeast winds on Thursday could push tides a
little higher for western areas of Galveston Bay. Overall winds
remain light to moderate from the northeast to east for the end of
the week and only have a minimal impact on tide levels.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 65 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 68 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 75 85 76 87 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39