Something Steve alluded too in one of his earlier forecasts about shear easing up slightly and the wrap around on the edge might allow for the formation of thunderstorms on the western flank....that is what is appearing to do.ticka1 wrote:What does it show - won't load on phonetireman4 wrote:What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1
June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month
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tireman4
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:What does it show - won't load on phonetireman4 wrote:What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Would that mean strengthening? Or Change in track? Curious. Thanks
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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It does not appear to be strengthening. Also RECO is nearing the center which about 260 Miles SSE of Beaumont actually. It appears it has slowed down as well.djmike wrote:Would that mean strengthening? Or Change in track? Curious. Thanks
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srainhoutx
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Per latest HDOB pass suggest the center is about 208 miles S of Lafayette. Lowest pressure 997mb.
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It definitely appears to be moving west.
At least the COC that is.
At least the COC that is.
It does Rip76. Maybe the miniscule shift west from the models will be correct.
Have a feeling the winds will be downgraded though with all that dry air filtering in as far as it is.
We shall see...
Have a feeling the winds will be downgraded though with all that dry air filtering in as far as it is.
We shall see...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Thank yousrainhoutx wrote:ticka1 wrote:What does it show - won't load on phonetireman4 wrote:What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1
...CINDY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.
Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued north and east of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, including Metropolitan New Orleans
and Lake Pontchartrain.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest
and then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.
Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected before landfall, with weakening
expected thereafter.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Thank yousrainhoutx wrote:ticka1 wrote:What does it show - won't load on phonetireman4 wrote:What a sight. Is it me or is it trying to form something....pro mets can jump in here.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1
Please delete double post
Last edited by ticka1 on Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CrashTestDummy
- Posts: 187
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- Location: Pearland, Texas
- Contact:
And it looks like there's still a fair amount of shear, at least on the southwestern half of the storm. On the GOES 16 visible mosaic, I saw what looked like a thunderstorm flare-up on the western side of the COC. The cloud 'puff' it pushed up into the upper atmosphere was sheared off, and quickly blown northeastward until it dissipated. It was very interesting to watch.djmike wrote:It does Rip76. Maybe the miniscule shift west from the models will be correct.
Have a feeling the winds will be downgraded though with all that dry air filtering in as far as it is.
We shall see...
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
Pearland, Texas
"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Contact:
Latest from NHC
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.
The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.
Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.
While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
Cindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this
morning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and
additional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center
in the eastern semicircle. However, there is more convection near
the center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on
this advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental
low-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant
amount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is
likely disrupting the convective organization. Surface observations
and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45
kt. The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased
over the northeastern quadrant.
The initial motion is now 310/9. There is little change in either
the track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the
northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy,
or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies
over the eastern United States.
Given the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects
on the convection, little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become
absorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just
after 72 h.
While the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from
intensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall
threat. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening
flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the
flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2502
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
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- Contact:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Morning satellite imagery shows lots of clouds from Tropical Storm Cindy
spreading westward across Southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms
rotating around Cindy have remained off to our east and southeast so
far, but anticipate some of this activity to possibly spread into mainly
our far eastern areas either later this afternoon but much more likely
overnight as the storm`s center makes its way toward the Sabine River
area and moves inland. Most available guidance continues to trend toward
keeping Cindy`s heaviest rainfall threat across parts of our eastern
coastal waters and further off to our east in the Lake Charles CWA.
Still looking for increasing winds as the day progresses, especially
near/along the coast and offshore.
There have been no changes to any of the hazards across our area on
the morning update. 42
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Morning satellite imagery shows lots of clouds from Tropical Storm Cindy
spreading westward across Southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms
rotating around Cindy have remained off to our east and southeast so
far, but anticipate some of this activity to possibly spread into mainly
our far eastern areas either later this afternoon but much more likely
overnight as the storm`s center makes its way toward the Sabine River
area and moves inland. Most available guidance continues to trend toward
keeping Cindy`s heaviest rainfall threat across parts of our eastern
coastal waters and further off to our east in the Lake Charles CWA.
Still looking for increasing winds as the day progresses, especially
near/along the coast and offshore.
There have been no changes to any of the hazards across our area on
the morning update. 42
Westward track clear and mini-revival of a center.
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
BlueJay wrote:It is officially summer on this Summer Solstice.
It will literally be a very long day watching Cindy.
Its BEEN very long days watching this thing....
Happy Solstice Bluejay!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Winds picking up quite a bit in Beaumont with rain blowing horizontal at times...wasn't expecting this this early. Hmmm...
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
It really doesnt look like it has moved at all today so far. Still looking pretty ragged but it has been able to hold on to that western side convection most of the morning. Shes ugly but persistent 