June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[houstonia]

Unfortunately, we usually have to wait for the UH System to make any announcements like this. And they can be a bit slow... we are usually one of the last to find out if we are closing. Last year we had an incident where the university didn't announce closing until well after most employees were already on the road. It was a fiasco.

I am at HCC and there is something on the homepage...

Exercise caution during expected severe weather conditions in Houston
Posted on June 20, 2017 by HCC — 0 Comments

[Scott747]

I wonder why they didn't extend the watches down to the Freeport area or somewhere near there..

Even with the expansion of the wind field it's still extremely limited on the western part of Cindy. Combine that with the orientation of the coast and trajectory of the track, there will be a sharp gradient even if the center does come close to Freeport.

[wxman57]

Another tweet from StormGeo here in Houston. Their ensembles-based TRAC guidance remains steady on a landfall near eastern Galveston Island. NHC has adjusted their track west, but not quite as far west as this guidance is indicating.

I don't think we'll see any tropical storm-force winds here in Houston unless Cindy develops squalls over the core prior to landfall. If that occurs then we could see sustained winds in the 30-40 mph range on Thursday morning. Generally, I'm expecting winds here 20-25 mph Thursday morning. Rainfall anywhere from an inch to 3-5 inches from Huntsville down to Clear Lake. Can't tell precisely what areas might get heavy rain yet. Depends on the structure of Cindy at landfall.

[DoctorMu]

Succembed to the High Island solution.


Wow @ this wind field:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

[jasons2k]

Still a lot of dry air out there.

[mcheer23]

Galveston and eastward is now in the WPC "MDT" risk for excessive rainfall.

[davidiowx]

Still a lot of dry air out there.

There really is.. wonder if that convection over the Yucatan can get sucked up and moisten the center up a bit.. it has a ways to go if it wants to do anything else

[srainhoutx]

Galveston and eastward is now in the WPC "MDT" risk for excessive rainfall.

[DoctorMu]

So... even though the center could pass right over Houston, there seems to be little in the way of concern. I guess it's because most of the rain is in the NE quadrant?
But I've been reading observations that the west side is filling in, is that correct? And that it's taking on more traditional tropical storm characteristics.
I'm at University of Houston Downtown and there's been nothing regarding this storm via email or other communications. I think everyone is in a slight state of disbelief because it's so early and every model showed that La and points east would be feeling all the effects!
My niece, on the other hand, is interning at NoLa's Homeland Security/Emergency Preparedness and they've been on alert for the last several days!

Glad this KHOU discussion and Mets have been proactive. HGX has been awfully conservative on their approach. It's always a tough dilemma with an unpredictable TS like Cindy. There's a tendency not to install hysteria into the population...but it should be clear from NOAA the Houston area is seeing Tropical Storm Warnings up to Galveston now. With Cindy revving up offshore the probability of additional strengthening increases.

Instead of pre-tropical system or Tropical Depression, the term Tropical Low might be more effective. Depression doesn't sound threatening or connotes and upgrade is possible.

Tropical Low
Tropical Storm
Hurricane


seems like a nice, clear 3-tier system that fits in well with our current descriptors. My $0.02

[javakah]

I think everyone is in a slight state of disbelief because it's so early and every model showed that La and points east would be feeling all the effects!

Well, the GFS showed that (and the NHC basically went with that in their maps, and the media went with what the NHC was saying).

But not every model showed that.

If you look at some of the conversations on here over the last few days, you will see bewilderment with how far east the NHC was going in predicting a Louisiana landfall, when something like 50 out of 52 models were going with a Texas landfall.

[DoctorMu]

Another tweet from StormGeo here in Houston. Their ensembles-based TRAC guidance remains steady on a landfall near eastern Galveston Island. NHC has adjusted their track west, but not quite as far west as this guidance is indicating.

I don't think we'll see any tropical storm-force winds here in Houston unless Cindy develops squalls over the core prior to landfall. If that occurs then we could see sustained winds in the 30-40 mph range on Thursday morning. Generally, I'm expecting winds here 20-25 mph Thursday morning. Rainfall anywhere from an inch to 3-5 inches from Huntsville down to Clear Lake. Can't tell precisely what areas might get heavy rain yet. Depends on the structure of Cindy at landfall.

Agreed - rainfall totals will be pretty heterogeneous. There could be a sharp east-west gradient, but I've been seeing wrap around on the models for over a day now.

[srainhoutx]

HGX actually has been doing a lot behind the "scene" for months attempting to prepare the public across SE Texas and even for this potential threat since last week. Regarding the new NHC Products, both now Operational and Experimental or "Testing" such as the Watch Warning Pre actual development of a Tropical Cyclone, drop the NHC an email and express your concerns. I told Jason the same thing this morning many pages back. I am sure they would appreciate all the input from the public before implications are made to fully Operational.

[houstonia]

Agreed. I don't think it's the NWS or NHC or even the city government that is at fault here. I just think that people/companies/institutions have become quite complacent. We've had so many near misses that people just figure this is another one, as indeed, it might be.

Re the experimental products: I think the PTC warnings, if they decide to keep them, will be better understood over time. It's not like there's been a huge PSA campaign to announce/explain it. Once people understand what it is and the justification, I think there will be a lot more acceptance.

HGX actually has been doing a lot behind the "scene" for months attempting to prepare the public across SE Texas and even for this potential threat since last week. Regarding the new NHC Products, both now Operational and Experimental or "Testing" such as the Watch Warning Pre actual development of a Tropical Cyclone, drop the NHC an email and express your concerns. I told Jason the same thing this morning many pages back. I am sure they would appreciate all the input from the public before implications are made to fully Operational.

[Rip76]

Last few frames it seems the "center" has moved NE?

Just from what I was watching on Ch. 11.

[TexasBreeze]

It is completing a cyclonic loop it appears...

[Cromagnum]

I realize the loop means more time over water, but how does that bode for track? More time to turn west or more time to turn north?

[DoctorMu]

The windfield appears to be tightening.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Warning is issued from San Luis Pass TX to Pearl River, MS including Galveston Bay and inland Liberty County.

Tropical storm Cindy likely to impact the SE TX coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Discussion:
USAF mission, ships, buoys, and oil platforms across the northern Gulf of Mexico has shown a large mass of tropical storm force winds today and a central pressure around 999mb. USAF mission currently investigating Cindy continues to suggest the system is poorly organized with nearly all of the deep convection removed well to the north and east of the center. The plane has also fixed a nearly stationary center this afternoon and based on latest visible images it appears that Cindy may be in the middle of completing an anti-cyclonic loop.

It needs to continue to be stressed that the majority of the weather is currently located well to the north and east of the ill defined center.

Track:
The track has shifted slightly west and most model guidance has narrowed today with a landfall along the coast between Galveston Bay and Cameron LA. Once Cindy completes the current looping motion, she should begin to move toward the NW and approach the NW US Gulf coast late on Wednesday. Based on the current forecast track from NHC, Cindy will be approaching the coast late Wednesday and likely making landfall along the SE TX coast near or just east of Galveston Bay early Thursday morning and then move NNW and N across deep east TX on Thursday.

Intensity:
While the pressure is fairly low for tropical cyclone, the ill defined nature of the circulation and broad nature continues to result in a spread out wind field. There is little evidence that upper level wind shear and dry air that has and continues to plague the system will abate much before landfall. There may be a small window near the coast where the upper level conditions may improve, but by that time the circulation will be interacting with the land areas along the coast.

Decision Support (Impacts)

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the eastern coastal waters early on Wednesday morning and arrive into the Chambers and Bolivar coastline by late afternoon on Wednesday and then into Galveston Bay and Galveston Island by late afternoon to early evening. TS force winds will spread inland along and east of I-45 Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Chambers County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Wed night and Thursday morning
Galveston County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Bolivar and Galveston Island Wed night and Thursday morning
Harris County: sustained winds of 30-40mph possible late Wed night and Thursday morning may gust to 45-50 along the bay front
Liberty County: sustained winds of 30-40mph Thursday morning.
All other counties: winds generally below 40mph.

Tides:
Chambers County: 3-4 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Galveston County: 3-4 feet above MLLW
Harris County: 2-3 feet above MLLW
Brazoria: 1-2 feet above MLLW

Seas:
Seas are building across our coastal waters currently and will be increasing to 4-7 feet tonight and Wednesday and 10-12 feet across our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon. Waves on the Gulf beaches will range from 3-5 feet and help to pile additional water. Some minor beach erosion and tidal overwash will be possible.

Rainfall:
The main changes this afternoon have been to the rainfall amounts across the region. With the slight west track shift this has spread the potential for heavy rainfall further west into SE TX. Additionally, this increases the risk for higher short duration rainfall totals of 2-3 inches per hours mainly along and east of I-45.

Chambers County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Liberty County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Harris County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches mainly east of I-45
Galveston County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches
San Jacinto County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Polk County: 5 inches isolated 7 inches
Montgomery County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Walker County: 3-5 inches isolated 6 inches

Additional changes to impacts may be required as Cindy evolves on Wednesday and nears the coast.

[TexasBreeze]

It may be possible that if it doesn't organize anymore, we could end up with a "naked swirl" landfall with all the rain way away. The center is all by itself now.

[mcheer23]

It may be possible that if it doesn't organize anymore, we could end up with a "naked swirl" landfall with all the rain way away. The center is all by itself now.

07 TS Erin.