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With March and a transition into Spring ahead, the reliable Global models suggest the transition from Winter to Spring may be a bit interesting around our Region. Will colder air make brief intrusions or will the usually warm weather continue? Discuss...

I am waiting on everyone on this forum to tell me what March 2017's weather will be.

My thought is that we are "due" for some cold winter weather and that March will not be as lovely as February. Time will tell.

Looks more like "in like a lamb", srain. A weak cold front may drop our temps to seasonal norms for a day or two next week before they had back to near 80 degrees. I think March will be warmer than normal, though not as much above normal as February has been (10.2F above, so far). A little drier than normal, too. Long-range EC ensembles are hinting at a less stormy pattern by mid March.

A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Tuesday with warm temps reaching the low to mid 80s across SE TX. The next front arrives Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms before clearing skies. Temps will once again drop down to normal for this time of year with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.

We arent transitioning into spring anymore. We seem to have solidly been there since late January.

A gorgeous Early March I ahead today into tomorrow with seasonal temperatures and low humidity as a light NW flow aloft keeps drier air filtering into our Region.

It appears that an onshore flow begins Friday night and increases Saturday as a couple for upper air disturbances move across the area bringing increasing moisture and a chance for showers Sunday into Monday. The guidance suggest that a Coastal low/trough will develop across the South Texas area Sunday as a warm front meanders North providing just enough lift to generate some mostly light rainfall inland with a chance of some moderate rain along the Coastal Counties as the disturbances pass. There is still some disagreement in the various model solutions regarding the next weather maker expected to arrive mid next week. The GFS is rather aggressive with a stronger upper trough arriving while the ECMWF keeps the energy further North and suggest we will remain very warm and may not see a cold front. Believe that the Euro solution is probably more correct with the mainly zonal flow across the Western 2/3rds of the United States and will lean more toward an inch or tow of rainfall along the Coast Sunday into Monday with less than an 1/2 inch further inland. The morning 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests higher total down the Coast where the Coastal low/trough may bring heavier rainfall chances.

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold front moved off the coast yesterday afternoon allowing a near normal air mass to reside over the area this morning. Cool temperatures, at least compared to recent days, will be in place today and Friday…but above normal temperatures will return for the weekend.

An upper level storm system will dig into NW MX by late Friday/early Saturday and then spread eastward across southern TX Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface a coastal trough and possibly even a low pressure center will develop Saturday near Brownsville and move ENE/NE up the TX coast Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of this feature with clouds thickening and lowering. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will erupt early Saturday over S TX and spread NE during the day into SE TX by the evening hours on Saturday as the coastal feature moves along the coast. Current indications suggest that the best moisture and heaviest rainfall will remain offshore with amounts upwards of an inch across the Matagorda Bay region into the coastal bend and lesser amounts elsewhere.

Shortwave and coastal feature should be passing east of SE TX by late Sunday and this should lower rain chances Sunday night into Monday.

Models are not in good agreement with the handling of a frontal passage at some point Tuesday/Wednesday with the GFS stronger, wetter, and colder and the ECMWF hardly showing a front. Will lean toward the ECMWF as this winter season has been warmer over colder and fronts just have not had much push or cold air.

After a couple of days of cooler and drier weather, changes are brewing in the Weekend/Early Week timeframe. A warm front and a Coastal Low/trough is expected to develop long the Lower and Middle Texas Coast bringing a chance for heavy rainfall with the possiblility of Flash Flooding, High Winds mainly offshore and potentially some Coastal Flooding as a surface low organizes Saturday night near the Lower Texas Coast and moves generally ENE on Sunday.

A potential dark day in meteorological science as Presdient Trump targets NOAA for deep cuts.

DoctorMu wrote:A potential dark day in meteorological science as Presdient Trump targets NOAA for deep cuts.

Let's be very careful in regards to political posts on this Forum. The information is linked to an "unnamed source" in a Washington Post article related to an Office Of Management and Budget (OMB) paper supposedly looking at budget cuts across the Federal Government. We have a longstanding policy on this Weather Forum of no political postings that dates back to the beginning of our online Weather Forum in 2001 or so. With that said, let's be very careful to wait for the facts versus "unnamed sources". We all support our NWS folks and the hard work they do in their mission to protect lives and property.

Is there an potential for severe weather this weekend into the week?

ticka1 wrote:Is there an potential for severe weather this weekend into the week?

Not seeing a threat for severe weather here in SE Texas right now for today into tomorrow in SE Texas. There is a chance of a strong storm or two along the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and offshore as the surface trough attempts to wrap up into a low pressure system tonight into tomorrow morning. Most of the "heaviest rainfall likely will be confined along and S of the 59 Corridor with less than a 1/2 inch to the N of the Coastal tier of Counties.

srainhoutx wrote:

DoctorMu wrote:A potential dark day in meteorological science as Presdient Trump targets NOAA for deep cuts.

Let's be very careful in regards to political posts on this Forum. The information is linked to an "unnamed source" in a Washington Post article related to an Office Of Management and Budget (OMB) paper supposedly looking at budget cuts across the Federal Government. We have a longstanding policy on this Weather Forum of no political postings that dates back to the beginning of our online Weather Forum in 2001 or so. With that said, let's be very careful to wait for the facts versus "unnamed sources". We all support our NWS folks and the hard work they do in their mission to protect lives and property.

srain: It's not political or fake news. The OMB outline is quite real, and could directly affect us all because it targets satellite data.

"Its satellite data division would lose $513 million, or 22 percent, of its current funding under the proposal."

Important as the complexities of climate change affect our forecasts and predicting future droughts, extreme weather, etc.

We will have to hope it does not come to pass - the situation is fluid. Most quality, inside news comes from "unmade sources." Per Forbes NWS will see a 5% cut directly. Folks can use this pertinent information as they see fit.

Hey Doc, this thread is about March weather so yea, you are wrong. Post that somewhere else.

I'm really enjoying this gentle rain this morning! The azaleas are a perky pink.

BlueJay wrote:I'm really enjoying this gentle rain this morning! The azaleas are a perky pink.

It has been awhile since we had a good old fashioned soaking rain. No thunder, no heavy storms, just a lovely rainy day.

A few stronger storms SW and S of Houston metro as well as the immediate coastal areas.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST SUN MAR 5 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 PM CST.

* At 1148 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Jones Creek, or 9 miles southwest of Lake
Jackson, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Southern Lake Jackson, Brazoria and Jones Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2017

TXC039-051815-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170305T1815Z/
Brazoria TX-
1203 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY...

At 1202 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Brazoria, or near Lake Jackson, moving north at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Lake Jackson, Brazoria and Jones Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.