They really blew that...but it's Fox so...Cromagnum wrote:The model Fox 26 just put up shows a broken line of weak storms rolling through around noon. The south side of Houston barely had anything while forecasts had been pegging that to be the hot spot.
February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns
I've been following you all - hope everyone is OK. I was afraid ya'll would see the juice behind the line of storms - southern Gulf moisture and instability turbocharged the mesos.
Just intense rain up here in CLL. Wind and cold overperformed.
Just intense rain up here in CLL. Wind and cold overperformed.
If you ask the GFS, next week's Presidents Day storm system will bring similar impacts to Southeast Texas as the Valentines Day's storms. This could be the system to watch. We shall see.
Last edited by 869MB on Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Here is a video of some of the damage in Stafford from the possible Tornado:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kSsha2 ... outu.be&a=
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kSsha2 ... outu.be&a=
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TexasBreeze
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The enhanced risk certainly panned out, but could have been even worse if the line came in during the afternoon instead of morning.
The Monday system looks like another wet one for The eastern half of TX with GFS modelling high amounts around Houston.
The Monday system looks like another wet one for The eastern half of TX with GFS modelling high amounts around Houston.
Videos of damage from an EF-1 tornado in Van Vleck in Matagorda, Co. This was near the intersection of peak CAPE and Shear levels from last night. Substantial home damage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiaeCGfzdSM
http://abc13.com/weather/nws-ef1-tornad ... k/1753898/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiaeCGfzdSM
http://abc13.com/weather/nws-ef1-tornad ... k/1753898/
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Katdaddy
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Nice cool weather today and Thursday with clearing skies. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday before more partly cloudy skies arrive with highs in the low 80s for the weekend. Our next storm system next week looks to be very wet.
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srainhoutx
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We will need to monitor the forecast trends as we head into the weekend for the potential of an impressive heavy rainfall event likely beginning late on Sunday and continuing through at least next Tuesday. The third in a series of potent 500mb Upper Lows will exit Northern Mexico heading generally East with a growing potential of a slow moving Coastal wave/low organizing along the Lower Texas Coast next Monday and slowly moving up the Coast next Tuesday. The ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement for this potential and the latest 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggest heavy training rainfall may be capable of dropping 5 to 7 inches of rain with higher isolated total where the strong storms train. Note the heavy rainfall across California. The series of storm systems will likely lead to increased flooding threats along the West Coast putting stress on the Highland Lakes like Lake Oroville.
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Katdaddy wrote:Nice cool weather today and Thursday with clearing skies. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Friday before more partly cloudy skies arrive with highs in the low 80s for the weekend. Our next storm system next week looks to be very wet.
At least there's no shear. Don't mind a soaking.
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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:
It is early…but signs are ominous for early next week.
Powerful upper level storm system moving into the west coast this weekend will arrive into TX late this weekend/early next week. This will potentially bring a high impact weather event to TX.
Moisture return off a very warm Gulf of Mexico (a result of this very mild winter) will begin in earnest Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing “off the charts” moisture levels in place by late Sunday with very impressive PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches or some 275% of normal over SE TX and nearly 400% of normal over N TX. To give an idea of how rare this would be…such moisture values are more common in the June-October time period…and if this actually materializes would potentially be record values for this time of year. The upper level system digs deep into MX and then progresses across TX bringing strong jet stream dynamics across this moisture plume. Lift and instability looks good and there could be the potential for sustained convective training with near summertime rainfall rates. WPC day 6/7 QPF is on the extreme side for such a long term forecast and hits a corridor from Galveston Island southward with 7-9 inches and widespread 5-7 inches over much of SE TX.
This system would also likely have a severe weather threat.
It is way too early to have much confidence in the rainfall totals or placement as well as the severe threat, but this system deserves close attention over the next several days.
It is early…but signs are ominous for early next week.
Powerful upper level storm system moving into the west coast this weekend will arrive into TX late this weekend/early next week. This will potentially bring a high impact weather event to TX.
Moisture return off a very warm Gulf of Mexico (a result of this very mild winter) will begin in earnest Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing “off the charts” moisture levels in place by late Sunday with very impressive PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches or some 275% of normal over SE TX and nearly 400% of normal over N TX. To give an idea of how rare this would be…such moisture values are more common in the June-October time period…and if this actually materializes would potentially be record values for this time of year. The upper level system digs deep into MX and then progresses across TX bringing strong jet stream dynamics across this moisture plume. Lift and instability looks good and there could be the potential for sustained convective training with near summertime rainfall rates. WPC day 6/7 QPF is on the extreme side for such a long term forecast and hits a corridor from Galveston Island southward with 7-9 inches and widespread 5-7 inches over much of SE TX.
This system would also likely have a severe weather threat.
It is way too early to have much confidence in the rainfall totals or placement as well as the severe threat, but this system deserves close attention over the next several days.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx wrote:Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:
It is early…but signs are ominous for early next week.
Powerful upper level storm system moving into the west coast this weekend will arrive into TX late this weekend/early next week. This will potentially bring a high impact weather event to TX.
Moisture return off a very warm Gulf of Mexico (a result of this very mild winter) will begin in earnest Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing “off the charts” moisture levels in place by late Sunday with very impressive PW values of 1.8-2.0 inches or some 275% of normal over SE TX and nearly 400% of normal over N TX. To give an idea of how rare this would be…such moisture values are more common in the June-October time period…and if this actually materializes would potentially be record values for this time of year. The upper level system digs deep into MX and then progresses across TX bringing strong jet stream dynamics across this moisture plume. Lift and instability looks good and there could be the potential for sustained convective training with near summertime rainfall rates. WPC day 6/7 QPF is on the extreme side for such a long term forecast and hits a corridor from Galveston Island southward with 7-9 inches and widespread 5-7 inches over much of SE TX.
This system would also likely have a severe weather threat.
It is way too early to have much confidence in the rainfall totals or placement as well as the severe threat, but this system deserves close attention over the next several days.
OK - that's more than a soaking. Prepare for potential flooding.
7-day total QPF seems to have gone down some, still, need to keep an eye on it
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfpfd
the Valentine's Day storm reports http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#H ... 50559/0101
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfpfd
the Valentine's Day storm reports http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#H ... 50559/0101
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Katdaddy
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The weather roller coaster continues for SE TX.
A rather chilly start to the morning with temps in the low 40s and a few 30s across SE TX. Highs will approach 70F this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase early tomorrow especially along the coast as a low pressure area currently over N MX moves into W and NW TX resulting in GOM moisture spreading inland across the TX coast. Heavy rain and a few strong storms may be possible along the immediate coastal areas Friday morning.
Saturday looks mostly sunny and warm with highs in the low 80s. Increasing clouds and thunderstorm chances Sunday ahead of the next significant storm system for early next week.
A rather chilly start to the morning with temps in the low 40s and a few 30s across SE TX. Highs will approach 70F this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase early tomorrow especially along the coast as a low pressure area currently over N MX moves into W and NW TX resulting in GOM moisture spreading inland across the TX coast. Heavy rain and a few strong storms may be possible along the immediate coastal areas Friday morning.
Saturday looks mostly sunny and warm with highs in the low 80s. Increasing clouds and thunderstorm chances Sunday ahead of the next significant storm system for early next week.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:
Rapid changes over the next several days as two storm systems move across the region.
Tonight/Friday:
Current well defined upper level system over northern MX will move across TX late tonight and Friday. Models have become more aggressive with moisture recovery into the region especially from around Matagorda Bay into SE TX on Friday and break out a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Will focus the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms near the coast and offshore, and spread light and moderate rains inland all the way to HWY 105. Could even see a few strong or even severe thunderstorms near the coast or offshore with strong jet dynamics overhead. Will focus heavy rainfall along the coastal counties where average amounts of .5-1.5 inches will be possible and isolated amounts of 2 inches possible. May need to shift this a little more inland if models continue to suggest better moisture pushes further inland. Areas N of US 59 should see totals less than .50 of an inch.
Late Sunday-Tuesday:
Yet another powerful Pacific system will approach and move across TX during this period. Models have come into better agreement with a bit less moisture, but still near record levels. System will begin to affect SC/C TX Sunday afternoon and spread into SE TX on Monday lingering into Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. History with dealing with slow moving northern MX upper level system suggest the slower route is likely the more correct which could push the main focus for SE TX into the day on Monday.
WPC rainfall totals have backed down from yesterday, but still a respectable 3-5 inches across SE TX with some isolated higher amounts. Models have been trending southward with this storm system which may end up anchoring the heaviest rains off the coast. Confidence is not high on either the timing or the storm totals amounts for early next week. This system should continue to be monitored closely as grounds will be wet and run-off likely maximized by early next week.
Rapid changes over the next several days as two storm systems move across the region.
Tonight/Friday:
Current well defined upper level system over northern MX will move across TX late tonight and Friday. Models have become more aggressive with moisture recovery into the region especially from around Matagorda Bay into SE TX on Friday and break out a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Will focus the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms near the coast and offshore, and spread light and moderate rains inland all the way to HWY 105. Could even see a few strong or even severe thunderstorms near the coast or offshore with strong jet dynamics overhead. Will focus heavy rainfall along the coastal counties where average amounts of .5-1.5 inches will be possible and isolated amounts of 2 inches possible. May need to shift this a little more inland if models continue to suggest better moisture pushes further inland. Areas N of US 59 should see totals less than .50 of an inch.
Late Sunday-Tuesday:
Yet another powerful Pacific system will approach and move across TX during this period. Models have come into better agreement with a bit less moisture, but still near record levels. System will begin to affect SC/C TX Sunday afternoon and spread into SE TX on Monday lingering into Tuesday and possibly even Wednesday. History with dealing with slow moving northern MX upper level system suggest the slower route is likely the more correct which could push the main focus for SE TX into the day on Monday.
WPC rainfall totals have backed down from yesterday, but still a respectable 3-5 inches across SE TX with some isolated higher amounts. Models have been trending southward with this storm system which may end up anchoring the heaviest rains off the coast. Confidence is not high on either the timing or the storm totals amounts for early next week. This system should continue to be monitored closely as grounds will be wet and run-off likely maximized by early next week.
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Those QPF amounts out in CA for the next 7 days look pretty ominous for the Lake Oroville dam situation ongoing. Glad to see California is getting drought relief this winter. Closer to home ... we got lucky here at my house with this past Valentine's Day Tornado event. Gotta thank the various weather apps for waking me up that morning and keeping my family safe during the event. Also thanks to this board and on FB and Twitter Texas Weather Board for the prompt updates.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Katdaddy
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Showers and thunderstorms are moving across SE TX this morning as an upper low moves across the state. Showers and thunderstorms will exit the area by mid to late afternoon. Saturday looks to be a nice mostly sunny day with highs in the low 80s before increasing clouds and moisture arrive Sunday ahead of the next storm system. The SPC has a marginal risk area across a large portion of TX for Sunday night into Monday morning. Some heavy rains look possible however the latest model runs are showing this storm system being more progressive.
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:
Heavy rainfall threat Sunday-Monday
Today:
Strong upper level system moving into SW TX spreading strong lift across a slowly moistening air mass. While surface layer is fairly dry inland, moisture has certainly increased near the coast allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Very cold mid level temperatures spreading into SW TX will overspread the coastal bend and SE TX coast this morning yielding good instability for thunderstorms to develop. Recent Corpus Christi radar shows the start of deep convection just north of Corpus Christi which will expand in coverage toward the ENE over the next several hours. Main threats will be brief heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail in the stronger storms.
Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches along the coast tapering to very little if any rainfall inland around College Station. Rainfall today will only help to wet and prime the grounds for the next storm system Sunday/Monday.
Sunday-Monday:
Next powerful storm system will move into CA today and then into Baja Saturday swinging eastward into SW TX Sunday and into E TX Monday. Ahead of this feature moisture will begin to greatly increase Saturday and Sunday with continued progged PWS values on Sunday rising to 1.5 inches and then upwards of 1.8 inches by Monday morning. Historic high PWS values for mid February for CRP are around 1.75 inches so by Monday morning we will be pushing near record moisture levels. The system continues to look highly convective and latest models have sped up the arrival of activity now into Sunday evening versus Monday morning. Arrival of strong upper air divergence a top a very moist air mass with potential for sustained cell training is pointing toward a flash flood threat Sunday night into Monday.
Expect strong to even severe thunderstorms to rapidly develop Sunday afternoon as mid level capping erodes across C TX roughly in the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin. Storms will congeal into lines and clusters with both a severe and excessive rainfall threat and very slowly progress eastward into SE TX overnight Sunday. Speed of the overall system will help to determine how long rainfall continues on Monday, but big concern is moisture levels and potential for very high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches.
Will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches possible. This magnitude of rainfall on top of already moist grounds will result in significant run-off into area rivers, bayous, and creeks resulting is rises.
Heavy rainfall threat Sunday-Monday
Today:
Strong upper level system moving into SW TX spreading strong lift across a slowly moistening air mass. While surface layer is fairly dry inland, moisture has certainly increased near the coast allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop. Very cold mid level temperatures spreading into SW TX will overspread the coastal bend and SE TX coast this morning yielding good instability for thunderstorms to develop. Recent Corpus Christi radar shows the start of deep convection just north of Corpus Christi which will expand in coverage toward the ENE over the next several hours. Main threats will be brief heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail in the stronger storms.
Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches along the coast tapering to very little if any rainfall inland around College Station. Rainfall today will only help to wet and prime the grounds for the next storm system Sunday/Monday.
Sunday-Monday:
Next powerful storm system will move into CA today and then into Baja Saturday swinging eastward into SW TX Sunday and into E TX Monday. Ahead of this feature moisture will begin to greatly increase Saturday and Sunday with continued progged PWS values on Sunday rising to 1.5 inches and then upwards of 1.8 inches by Monday morning. Historic high PWS values for mid February for CRP are around 1.75 inches so by Monday morning we will be pushing near record moisture levels. The system continues to look highly convective and latest models have sped up the arrival of activity now into Sunday evening versus Monday morning. Arrival of strong upper air divergence a top a very moist air mass with potential for sustained cell training is pointing toward a flash flood threat Sunday night into Monday.
Expect strong to even severe thunderstorms to rapidly develop Sunday afternoon as mid level capping erodes across C TX roughly in the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin. Storms will congeal into lines and clusters with both a severe and excessive rainfall threat and very slowly progress eastward into SE TX overnight Sunday. Speed of the overall system will help to determine how long rainfall continues on Monday, but big concern is moisture levels and potential for very high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches.
Will go with widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 6 inches possible. This magnitude of rainfall on top of already moist grounds will result in significant run-off into area rivers, bayous, and creeks resulting is rises.
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
TXZ226-236-237-171845-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Matagorda TX-
1154 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON...SOUTHERN FORT
BEND...WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 PM CST...
At 1154 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Texas Nuclear Plant, moving north at 45 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bay City, Markham, Van Vleck, Boling-Iago, Wadsworth and Damon.
LAT...LON 2884 9613 2936 9594 2933 9594 2931 9590
2930 9590 2927 9588 2926 9585 2930 9580
2930 9578 2932 9575 2930 9567 2929 9565
2877 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 201DEG 37KT 2888 9601
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
TXZ226-236-237-171845-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Matagorda TX-
1154 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON...SOUTHERN FORT
BEND...WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 PM CST...
At 1154 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Texas Nuclear Plant, moving north at 45 mph.
Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bay City, Markham, Van Vleck, Boling-Iago, Wadsworth and Damon.
LAT...LON 2884 9613 2936 9594 2933 9594 2931 9590
2930 9590 2927 9588 2926 9585 2930 9580
2930 9578 2932 9575 2930 9567 2929 9565
2877 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 201DEG 37KT 2888 9601
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Katdaddy
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
TXZ199-212-213-227-171945-
Waller TX-Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
113 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 110 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Katy, moving northeast at 45 mph.
This storm is producing briefly torrential rainfall. Gusty winds and
potentially some small hail are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Brookshire, Pinehurst, southwestern
Addicks Park Ten, northwestern Eldridge / West Oaks, Fulshear,
Stagecoach, Hooks Airport, Cinco Ranch, Cypress and Willowbrook.
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
113 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
TXZ199-212-213-227-171945-
Waller TX-Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
113 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2017
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
At 110 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Katy, moving northeast at 45 mph.
This storm is producing briefly torrential rainfall. Gusty winds and
potentially some small hail are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Brookshire, Pinehurst, southwestern
Addicks Park Ten, northwestern Eldridge / West Oaks, Fulshear,
Stagecoach, Hooks Airport, Cinco Ranch, Cypress and Willowbrook.
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