January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[TexasBreeze]

It was muggy this morning at my house, drove through the front and was chilly at work. Warmed up there temporarily then got chilly again!

[Ptarmigan]

Should we expect more rain this evening?

Possible to see more rain tonight. NWS Houston Forecast Discussion.

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 190333
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
933 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The weak boundary is now off of the coast and stretches NE to near
BPT. Seeing a break in the rain this evening, but another upper
level disturbance is approaching from the sw and expect to see
showers and a few thunderstorms increase across se TX in a few
hours. Do not expect problematic rainfall overnight, but a few
areas could pickup an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, especially
near the coast towards morning. The rain will end from SW to NE
during the late morning/early afternoon hours tomorrow.

Made some slight adjustments to temps/pops tonight, but nothing
significant. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      51  72  55  75  58 /  30  10  10  20  30
Houston (IAH)              56  70  58  77  61 /  60  60  10  10  50
Galveston (GLS)            64  68  63  71  64 /  60  70  10  20  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Katdaddy]

A large area of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms developed just offshore of the Upper TX Coast and moved into SW LA earlier this morning. Another area of numerous showers and thunderstorms are developing across the Middle TX Coast, S Central TX, and Central TX. This area is currently moving into SE TX and the Upper TX Coast and will create another messy commute. Areas along and S of I-10 toward the coast look to be the main areas for this round of rainfall but totals look to be much less than yesterday however some locally heavy rains are possible along the coastal area..

SE TX will remain just E of a multi-day severe weather along the N Central Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley with a slight risk area covering most of LA, MS, AL, and portions of GA and NW FL through the weekend and then shifting into a large portion of GA, FL, and portions of the Carolinas Sunday into Monday.

[tireman4]

Yesterday was crazy. I could not get to work from 59 to Gulfgate. It was that bad. Sheesh. Today, I made it with time to spare.


FXUS64 KHGX 191156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION.../12z TAF/
Radar shows shower activity and a few isolated thunderstorms
moving into the Houston area from the SW as an upper level trough
axis begins to move through the region. Lift from the trough is
acting to enhance the convection so added VCTS/TSRA to TAFs to
start. Activity appears to be moving faster than what progs
suggest so the activity could be ending earlier than 15Z. This
will also depend upon how far back to the west activity develops.

Ceilings will remain at IFR/LIFR levels and could improve with the
onset of convection. Even then ceilings will be a mix of IFR/MVFR
through much of the morning. Ceilings should improve to MVFR in
the afternoon with maybe some VFR at KCLL.

Light winds tonight with moist grounds should lead to fog
development. Models and SREF probabilities all have a strong
signal for fog so added at least a tempo group for 1/2SM fog and
IFR/LIFR ceilings. Quite possible that ceilings and fog will be
slow to improve Friday morning.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Rain and thunderstorms are possible once again today over SE
Texas. Do not expect a repeat of yesterday`s rainfall event give
that the frontal boundary was off of the coast early this morning.
However, the area will again come under the influence of an upper
trough moving overhead and the right-rear quadrant of the upper
level jet maximum which in turn will help generate showers and
thunderstorms once again mainly this morning. A radar mosiac at
3:30 AM showed an area of rain and thunderstorms stretching from
the Rio Grande to just west of Columbus. Another area of showers
were moving over the coastal counties. Model estimates are for
about one-quarter to one-half of an inch of total rainfall today
mainly along and east of a line from Columbus to Houston to
Cleveland. With PWs about 1.5 inches (in the 90th percentile for
this time of year), isolated totals of about one inch could occur.
Over the northern portions of the forecast area, rainfall totals
under a quarter of an inch are expected.

Friday and Saturday will be warmer. An upper level shortwave
ridge will move overhead on Friday with an upper low pressure
trough then moving overhead on Saturday. As this system moves east
of the area, it will wrap up and tighten the surface pressure
gradient over SE Texas and breezy conditions will result on
Sunday. A couple of dry days are then in store before another
upper level low pressure trough moves into the Plains over the mid
week period. Ahead of this system, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday over at
least the eastern portions of the forecast area.

40

MARINE...
Light NW to W winds should continue this morning but then turn SW
for the afternoon. This should allow for low seas to persist. Winds
light southerly winds continue Friday and Saturday with low seas. A
strong cold front should push off the Upper Texas Coast Saturday
night. Winds shift to the NW and increase dramatically Sunday
morning. Gale force winds will be likely Sunday so will likely need a
gale watch at some point. Small craft advisories may be needed
Sunday night into Monday as winds decrease. Seas should quickly
build in response to the strong northwest winds with 9 to 12 feet
seas by Sunday night. Seas should drop below 7 feet by Monday
morning.

Tide levels should remain about a foot above normal but could drop
some with light southerly winds into the weekend. Tide levels should
decrease quickly with the passage of the cold front Saturday night.
Low water advisory may be needed given the NW direction of the winds
and the rapid increase in wind speeds.

Overpeck

FIRE...
Overall rainfall from the last couple of days should keep vegetation
and soils moist. Fuels may dry some as a much drier airmass moves
into SE Texas Sunday behind a cold front Saturday night. But
relative humidity levels may only reach 35 percent Sunday with the
strong winds. Humidity levels may be lower on Monday but winds will
be light to moderate. At this time even elevated fire weather
conditions are not expected.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 55 77 57 74 / 30 0 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 66 58 78 61 76 / 70 0 10 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 64 62 72 64 73 / 70 0 30 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[redneckweather]

Well folks, the time has gone once again for any wintry type weather down here in Southeast Texas. Just as per the norm, I had a couple sleet pellets fall and actually saw a couple of stray small snow flurries back during that last artic front. Man I had to strain my eyes to see those. lol Just your typical winter down here. I always hear people disappointed that we don't get any snow...are you not aware on where you live??? If you want to see snow at least once a year, you better move north, way north!

We might see another quick hitter to drop temps below normal but that will be about it. Seriously, I'm ready for some sunshine and flip flops! January is the most worthless month of the year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Well folks, the time has gone once again for any wintry type weather down here in Southeast Texas. Just as per the norm, I had a couple sleet pellets fall and actually saw a couple of stray small snow flurries back during that last artic front. Man I had to strain my eyes to see those. lol Just your typical winter down here. I always hear people disappointed that we don't get any snow...are you not aware on where you live??? If you want to see snow at least once a year, you better move north, way north!

We might see another quick hitter to drop temps below normal but that will be about it. Seriously, I'm ready for some sunshine and flip flops! January is the most worthless month of the year.

Uh, time hasn't passed and February is typically our best chance. Given a pattern change is on the horizon, I'm not sure why you are speaking in absolutes.

Pop one of those manic depressive weather pills and save this post for the last week of Feb

[wxman57]

European model continues to predict sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts 45-55 mph across a large part of southeast Texas from late Sunday morning to late Sunday afternoon. Peak winds are predicted to be across southern Montgomery and northeast Harris County. I plotted a graphic of the predicted wind gusts valid at 3pm Sunday. Contours are every 2 mph. Dry, but quite a windy day for a bike ride!

We might expect some brief power outages with such winds.

[wxman57]

Here's a 12Z EC forecast of peak wind gusts (mph) across SE TX at 3pm Sunday. I plotted only 45 mph or greater in 1 mph increments. Not quite as strong as the 00Z, but still a large area of 45-50 mph gusts. Sustained winds 25-30 mph.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday night briefing from Jeff:

Area within a brief break from upper level disturbances and rainfall allowing recent storm water to drain area watersheds and into rivers.

The next strong upper level disturbance will rapidly cross N MX tonight and eject across TX on Friday. Old lingering surface front offshore will back northward tonight and Friday, but likely not make much progress past the coast. Short range models have varying solutions on where this next batch of convection will occur with the majority keeping the most active weather off the coast across the Gulf waters. This seems most appropriate given the lingering surface boundary offshore and where the most unstable air mass will reside. Still can’t rule out a strong or even isolated severe storm Friday afternoon/evening along and SE of US 59. Main threat would be damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Will focus the majority of the rainfall along the coast and offshore, but would not be surprised to see some showers extend as far inland as I-10 Friday afternoon.

Next and final upper level system will intensify while crossing TX late Saturday. Influx of moisture looks meager still with this system which is a good thing considering the potent dynamics that will come to bear across the area. Will not rule out an isolated strong or even severe thunderstorm east of I-45 late Saturday, but think the best chances will be east of our area. Combination of warm air advection and increasing jet dynamics aloft over the region on Saturday will support widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Pacific cold front will sweep rapidly across the region Saturday night with onset of strong gusty winds.

Sunday will be a very windy day with strong 850 and 925mb winds forecasted across the area with plentiful sun to create strong mixing of vertical momentum to the surface. Core of 700mb wind energy is aimed from WC TX toward the coastal bend where sustained speed of 35-45mph with gust to 50-55mph will be possible for several hours on Sunday. Will need a widespread Wind Advisory for all counties and could filter with high wind warning criteria across Jackson, Victoria, Calhoun, Colorado, and Wharton Counties. Elsewhere across the area sustained winds of 30-40mph with gust to 45mph will be possible.

Dry air will certainly be brought into the area on the strong WNW/NW winds, but RH values are expected to remain around 30-40% most of Sunday and while fine fuels are dead from recent freezes, the higher RH values and wet soils should generally preclude fire weather concerns. The exception will be around Matagorda Bay where RH values may fall to near 20% by mid afternoon.

Recent warm period will gradually end by Sunday into early next week as more Pacific and Canadian air is brought into the region with highs and lows generally near normal or 40/60’s.

An extremely cold air mass is currently building in Alaska with surface temperatures running -35 to -50F. This air mass may begin to spread SE into NW Canada next week and the upper level pattern toward the first week of February may unleash this air mass into the US. A reminder that while it has been recently very mild…winter is not over.

[Katdaddy]

Dense fog across the Middle and Upper TX Coast this morning. The radar is quiet this morning but that will change late this afternoon and overnight as another short wave trough and strong upper level low approaches SE TX. The SPC has the Upper TX Coast and portions of SE TX including Houston in a marginal risk area. In addition, heavy rains with high rainfall rates could be a concern even though storm motion will be rapid.

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the primary severe weather mode with localized flooding possible so remain weather aware late afternoon and overnight.

[Katdaddy]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
523 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME AREAS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW A QUARTER MILE.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF HOUSTON. STORMS MAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE COAST AND PUSH EAST. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS THAT ROTATE WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. SOME OF THE STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WITH RECENT RAINFALL
COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AND
ALONG THE COAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY SO A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

[Katdaddy]

SPC has now placed portions of SE TX in a slight risk area now which includes the Houston-Galveston areas.

[redneckweather]

I'm more interested in the high wind event on Sunday. If what is being forecasted pans out, then I would compare this type of wind to a low to moderate tropical storm (without the rain). Looks like sustained winds across Southeast, Texas around 35mph (give or take) with continuous gusts up to 50, possibly even 60! We don't even see these type of winds with a low (sometimes even moderate) end tropical storm that hit in and around Galveston.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, I have 2 acres of scattered oak and pine behind my house. I am a wee bit worried about Sunday afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Will need to monitor this afternoon, particularly along and S of I-10 for rotating updrafts. While the parameters look marginal at best, the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) guidance is 'sniffing' some potential of a sneaky quick spin up tornado or two.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Slight chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along and S of I-10.

High Wind Event likely on Sunday.

Very active pattern continues with rapid changes across the area. Strong jet stream disturbance will be rapidly approaching from NE MX today as a weak warm front lifts northward from the coast to possibly as far inland as US 59. Air mass south of this boundary will become unstable by early afternoon with as much CAPE as 1000 J/kg and a good deal of wind shear. HRRR and TX TECH WRF develop storms along and south of this boundary with some of this activity likely becoming severe. SPC just recently upgraded much of the area to a slight risk…but feel the areas south of I-10 have the highest chances. Main timing of this activity will be between 300pm and 900pm with the main threats being isolated large hail, wind damage, and a possible tornado.

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be common under this activity with isolated amounts of 3 inches. With PWS increasing to 1.6 inches along with a slow moving boundary in place and splitting upper level jet does certainly point toward heavy rainfall. While storm motions will be near 40kts, as we saw on Wednesday morning cell training can pile up totals quickly. We have been burned before in these types of setups most recently on Wednesday morning, so the heavy rainfall aspect is something that will need to be watched this afternoon/evening. While most watersheds will be able to handle this amount of rainfall, it is possible these storms affect portions of the area near/around the evening commute and would pose a street flooding concern with high hourly rainfall rates.

Weekend:
Forecast models maintain a powerful storm system for this weekend which is moving ashore the west coast at this time and will race into the southern plains and intensify. Expect scattered showers on Saturday under warm air advection ahead of this system, and if better moisture moves into the region than currently expect a few severe storms would be possible. It appears SE TX will lie on the extreme western edge of what will be a fairly significant severe weather/tornado outbreak across the southern US this weekend.

WIND:
Rare high wind event will commence late Saturday and build to maximum intensity on Sunday as powerful jet stream energy wraps into the rapidly intensify low pressure system. This will not be our normal gusty post frontal winds with some wind damage possible. 700mb winds increase to near 90kts with a 130kt jet stream plowing into the area Sunday morning. Clear skies will result in maximum momentum transfer of these very high wind speeds aloft toward the surface and winds will increase dramatically on Sunday morning and likely reach maximum speeds during the early afternoon hours.

Expect widespread sustained winds of 30-40mph with gusts of 45-50mph across the entire region. Could see gusts of 55-60mph across the coastal waters. Winds of this magnitude for several hours have the potential to down trees and power lines, blown down fences, tents, signs, ect.

Severe Weather Outlook (Today):

01202017 Jeff i untitled.png

[Katdaddy]

Storm initiation ongoing between Corpus Christi and Victoria.

[Katdaddy]

Mesoscale Discussion 0079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Areas affected...portions of the middle and upper Texas coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202009Z - 202215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop into the
late afternoon and evening across the middle and upper Texas coast.
Additional development eventually is expected across eastern Texas,
but timing of more widespread convection is a bit uncertain.
Initial concerns this afternoon will be hail and some strong wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms were developing along the middle
TX coast near VCT, in the vicinity of a warm front draped northeast
to southwest across the coastal plain. Weak destabilization is
occurring as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s with
weak capping eroding. Latest hi-res guidance indicates coverage
should remain rather isolated for a few hours, before a gradual
increase occurs into the evening hours. This seems reasonable given
a weak shortwave impulse is currently moving across the TX Big Bend
area and will provide increasing forcing for ascent in the coming
hours.

In the meantime, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible during the next few hours in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. Forecast RAP soundings coupled with mesoanalysis data show
steep low and midlevel lapse rates improving between now and 00z. At
the same time, increasing vertical shear, with long hodographs
suggest large hail will be the main concern as storm track along to
just north of the surface boundary. Some backed low level flow in
the vicinity of the boundary will lead to some enhanced shear in the
lowest 1 km or so, posing some low-end tornado potential. However,
wind speeds less than about 10-15 kt in this layer will limit
greater tornado threat. With low level lapse rates increasing to 7-8
C/km, a few strong wind gusts also will be possible. While coverage
is expected to remain limited in the short-term, a watch may be
needed in the next 1-3 hours, depending on convective trends.

[tireman4]

Things could be a little bumpy around here later....


Latest high resolution guidance continues to advertise this warm
front lifting towards the coast this afternoon as near surface
flow backs, but some uncertainty exists as to how far north this
boundary will lift. This will impact where the deepest moisture
moves later this afternoon (CIRA layer precipitable water
estimates showing 1.1-1.2 inch values over the northwest Gulf now,
as opposed to 0.5-0.7 inch values inland)... and this moisture
will play a direct role in where thunderstorms develop as well as
what brief heavy rain threat (if any) materializes. For now,
expect the boundary to lift just inland of the coast.

Surface heating today will be inhibited somewhat by passing high
clouds associated with the strong upper level winds and does not
appear to be enough to overcome the low level capping inversion in
place across most of the region this afternoon (save for along the
immediate coast). As a result, the convective scenario for today
looks to revolve around two main forcing features: the arrival of
the jet streak from West Texas as an upper trough lifts into the
Southern Plains and the arrival of the warm front. Expect isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to begin developing along the warm
front as it reaches the Texas Coastal Bend by late this afternoon
(3-6 PM CST), with additional elevated showers and thunderstorms
developing north of the warm front as strong divergence results in
air parcels lifting above the cap and tapping into elevated
instability. Expect storms to approach the Houston metro in the
5-7 PM CST timeframe.

Mid and upper level cooling associated with the passage of the
trough axis across the Southern Plains will result in lapse rates
this afternoon and evening steepening to nearly 7.5 C/km with
forecast soundings showing relatively thick CAPE profiles within
the hail growth zone (temperatures -10 to -30 C). As a result,
thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight will be capable of a
large hail and damaging wind threat... with an additional threat
for an isolated tornado mainly along the warm front where storms
appear to be surface based. Mean cloud layer winds this afternoon
look to be on the order of 40-50 MPH so these storms will be (for
lack of a better phrase) hauling it as they move from southwest to
northeast across the forecast area, which should help minimize
against a widespread flooding threat. However, stronger cells
(especially if more moisture is able to push inland) will be
capable of isolated 1-2" amounts.

The main update to the forecast was to add a mention of severe
thunderstorms to the forecast for late this afternoon and evening,
with minor updates for hourly temperatures and dew points based on
observations. Expect these storms to clear the region sometime
after midnight.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Strong to severe thunderstorms developing over the coastal bend.

SPC monitoring the area for a possible weather watch as upper air disturbance begins to spread lift across a moistening and increasingly unstable air mass. Radar shows development of strong to at time severe storms along US 59 from Wharton to Victoria counties and additional development is likely over the next few hours.

Main threat will be large hail and wind damage with tornadoes an isolated secondary potential.

Heavy rain will be possible with these storms with 1 hour rates observed near Victoria of 1-2 inches. This could impact portions of Harris County during the evening commute with street flooding potential.