Sure, I look at many sources akin to some who watch models with bated breath.brooksgarner wrote:Hey, Mr. Heat Miser: KHOU doesn't do 10 day forecasts because they're unreliable. Are you cheating on us??Heat Miser wrote:Watched one forecast last night that had us with highs in the mid 40's for Christmas eve and day, cloudy skies. That will be perfect weather for Christmas in my books.
December 2016- End Of Year Forecast
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Heat Miser
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Portastorm
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Looks like the Arctic front will move through the Austin area Sat night around 9 or 10 pm. Then we'll see three consecutive freezing nights including a hard freeze Sun night/Mon morn. Coldest airmass in two years!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I thought I saw where it was supposed to pass College Station around 3-4?
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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Surface charts and water vapor imagery suggest the Arctic front is around Laramie, WY awaiting the winter storm to eject out of the West. I will not be surprised to see the Arctic boundary surge South abit faster that the models suggest.
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I'm hoping you are right....Saturday morning would be better...lolsrainhoutx wrote:Surface charts and water vapor imagery suggest the Arctic front is around Laramie, WY awaiting the winter storm to eject out of the West. I will not be surprised to see the Arctic boundary surge South abit faster that the models suggest.
Super cold, dense, shallow air usually outperforms models on timing. We'll see.
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tireman4
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A slight chance of showers or drizzle before noon, then a chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 38. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
S64 KHGX 161604
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Onshore flow has increased temps and fog a bit faster than
expected along the coast and just offshore, and have added mention
of that and adjusted morning grids accordingly. Expect the fog to linger
and expand through the day with persistent flow off the gulf.
Otherwise, forecast on track with unseasonably mild conditions
spreading inland as coastal/warm front shifts north through the
day. Have kept mention of slight chance of showers as a few quick
hitting showers develop today.
Evans
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/
AVIATION...
Deck of MVFR ceilings and fog banks have been slow to work up
from farther down the coast with the warm front, but are
beginning to move in from the southwest now. So the short term
works to delay the degradation of conditions a little bit. Expect
some slight improvement for the afternoon, but with plenty of Gulf
moisture streaming up on onshore flow, not expecting a ton of
improvement. Look to see some degradation again overnight as the
front drifts further inland and the same Gulf air remains in
place.
&&
MARINE...
High pressure is moving eastward and about to leave the Ohio Valley
for the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. In the meantime, lee
cyclogenesis is occurring in Colorado, and is creating the setup for
a breezy, onshore, pre-frontal environment overnight Friday into
Saturday morning. These winds look to be marginal for small craft
conditions, and will hold off on issuing until there`s a little more
confidence since recent trends seem to have been downward, and not
sure where they will stabilize. On the flip side, with solid onshore
flow of moist air over relatively cooler waters, sea fog development
is a forecast on more solid ground. That environment will exist
until the cold front comes late Saturday night to clear out any
lingering fog.
Regarding the front, winds should calm some Saturday, but are likely
to rapidly increase following the passage of the front after
midnight. There`s enough confidence in the forecast to issue a gale
watch for late Saturday night and Sunday. This watch is, by design,
fairly broad in space and time, hitting all marine zones and
stretching from a couple hours before the front hitting the water
until a little after gale force gusts exist in our forecast. This
was purposefully done to account for current uncertainty in timing
and strength of the winds, and to ensure that any warning that
follows will not be outside the current watch area. All in all, the
best chance for hitting the gale will be farther offshore, and from
shortly after the front late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Outside of that, will leave the decision to later shifts to better
refine the parameters of any warning. Still expect sustained winds
to around 30 knots, and frequent gusts up to 40 knots. Gusty winds
look to continue over the warmer and less stable Gulf waters through
Monday.
Strong onshore winds will bring elevated tides toward the coast on
Friday and Friday night but current projections keep tide levels
around or just under 3.0 feet. Not expecting significant impacts
along the Bolivar peninsula at this time. In the wake of the strong
cold front on Sunday, water levels will be pushed out of the bay and
low water may be an issue if the direction is more north than
northeast.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 67 78 29 38 / 20 20 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 72 70 80 36 42 / 30 20 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 68 76 43 45 / 30 30 20 60 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
Tonight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 38. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
S64 KHGX 161604
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016
.UPDATE...
Onshore flow has increased temps and fog a bit faster than
expected along the coast and just offshore, and have added mention
of that and adjusted morning grids accordingly. Expect the fog to linger
and expand through the day with persistent flow off the gulf.
Otherwise, forecast on track with unseasonably mild conditions
spreading inland as coastal/warm front shifts north through the
day. Have kept mention of slight chance of showers as a few quick
hitting showers develop today.
Evans
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/
AVIATION...
Deck of MVFR ceilings and fog banks have been slow to work up
from farther down the coast with the warm front, but are
beginning to move in from the southwest now. So the short term
works to delay the degradation of conditions a little bit. Expect
some slight improvement for the afternoon, but with plenty of Gulf
moisture streaming up on onshore flow, not expecting a ton of
improvement. Look to see some degradation again overnight as the
front drifts further inland and the same Gulf air remains in
place.
&&
MARINE...
High pressure is moving eastward and about to leave the Ohio Valley
for the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. In the meantime, lee
cyclogenesis is occurring in Colorado, and is creating the setup for
a breezy, onshore, pre-frontal environment overnight Friday into
Saturday morning. These winds look to be marginal for small craft
conditions, and will hold off on issuing until there`s a little more
confidence since recent trends seem to have been downward, and not
sure where they will stabilize. On the flip side, with solid onshore
flow of moist air over relatively cooler waters, sea fog development
is a forecast on more solid ground. That environment will exist
until the cold front comes late Saturday night to clear out any
lingering fog.
Regarding the front, winds should calm some Saturday, but are likely
to rapidly increase following the passage of the front after
midnight. There`s enough confidence in the forecast to issue a gale
watch for late Saturday night and Sunday. This watch is, by design,
fairly broad in space and time, hitting all marine zones and
stretching from a couple hours before the front hitting the water
until a little after gale force gusts exist in our forecast. This
was purposefully done to account for current uncertainty in timing
and strength of the winds, and to ensure that any warning that
follows will not be outside the current watch area. All in all, the
best chance for hitting the gale will be farther offshore, and from
shortly after the front late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Outside of that, will leave the decision to later shifts to better
refine the parameters of any warning. Still expect sustained winds
to around 30 knots, and frequent gusts up to 40 knots. Gusty winds
look to continue over the warmer and less stable Gulf waters through
Monday.
Strong onshore winds will bring elevated tides toward the coast on
Friday and Friday night but current projections keep tide levels
around or just under 3.0 feet. Not expecting significant impacts
along the Bolivar peninsula at this time. In the wake of the strong
cold front on Sunday, water levels will be pushed out of the bay and
low water may be an issue if the direction is more north than
northeast.
Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 67 78 29 38 / 20 20 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 72 70 80 36 42 / 30 20 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 68 76 43 45 / 30 30 20 60 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
-
srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:
Much advertised arctic front heading for SE TX Saturday night.
Warm front advancing inland this morning with light drizzle and fog covering much of SE TX. Temperatures range from 46 at Crockett to 69 at Galveston. Warm front is along a line from Victoria to High Island and lifting northward. Local radars show light rain and drizzle along and ahead of this feature over much of the central part of SE TX.
Will see a fairly rapid warm up even with the clouds and drizzle today as the warm front advances northward across the region. Strong warm air advection regime will onset late this afternoon and continue into Saturday with a few fast moving showers in the strong southerly flow. High temperatures on Saturday will likely reach to near 80 or right at record levels before the bottom falls out Saturday night. Some raw GFS and NAM guidance is showing low to mid 80’s, but this would only be reachable if the clouds broke up some…which is possible.
Long awaited arctic boundary blasts across the region Saturday night with major temperature falls. Highs Saturday around 80 will tumble to below freezing by Sunday morning from College Station (78/29) over toward Huntsville and into the mid/upper 30’s across areas N of US 59 and low 40’s along the coast. Very strong north winds of 25-35mph with gust to over 40mph will drive wind chills well into the 10’s by Sunday morning. Think some areas will struggle to even reach 40 on Sunday and temperatures may actually continue to fall through much of the day.
Gale Watch is up for all the coastal waters from Saturday night into Sunday and marine conditions will become very dangerous with frequent 40-45mph gusts post front across all waters. Will almost certainly need to upgrade the watch to a warning on Saturday.
Next question is just how cold Monday morning. Appears the intensity of this arctic air mass is stronger and drier which should help scour out those pesky low clouds by Sunday afternoon/evening. Axis of the arctic surface high is still well N of SE TX Sunday night and expect winds will not fully decouple and go calm but remain in the 5-10mph range. Upstream cold air drainage from a very cold N TX with surface temperatures in the 10’s Monday AM would likely still support 20’s across a good portion of SE TX even with winds. For now will go with mid 20’s College Station to Lake Livingston and upper 20’s as far south as US 59. Tuesday morning could feature another freeze in many of those same areas.
Will need to keep an eye on wind chills Monday AM with surface temperatures in the 20’s in many areas and winds still in the 5-10mph range…certainly looking at 10’s on the wind chill chart.
Warm up begins after Tuesday as old arctic surface high shifts eastward and flow returns from the Gulf. Fairly large storm system takes aim at the southern plains for the Christmas weekend period. Impacts at this point are still over a week away…but stay tuned as this active pattern of late continues.
Much advertised arctic front heading for SE TX Saturday night.
Warm front advancing inland this morning with light drizzle and fog covering much of SE TX. Temperatures range from 46 at Crockett to 69 at Galveston. Warm front is along a line from Victoria to High Island and lifting northward. Local radars show light rain and drizzle along and ahead of this feature over much of the central part of SE TX.
Will see a fairly rapid warm up even with the clouds and drizzle today as the warm front advances northward across the region. Strong warm air advection regime will onset late this afternoon and continue into Saturday with a few fast moving showers in the strong southerly flow. High temperatures on Saturday will likely reach to near 80 or right at record levels before the bottom falls out Saturday night. Some raw GFS and NAM guidance is showing low to mid 80’s, but this would only be reachable if the clouds broke up some…which is possible.
Long awaited arctic boundary blasts across the region Saturday night with major temperature falls. Highs Saturday around 80 will tumble to below freezing by Sunday morning from College Station (78/29) over toward Huntsville and into the mid/upper 30’s across areas N of US 59 and low 40’s along the coast. Very strong north winds of 25-35mph with gust to over 40mph will drive wind chills well into the 10’s by Sunday morning. Think some areas will struggle to even reach 40 on Sunday and temperatures may actually continue to fall through much of the day.
Gale Watch is up for all the coastal waters from Saturday night into Sunday and marine conditions will become very dangerous with frequent 40-45mph gusts post front across all waters. Will almost certainly need to upgrade the watch to a warning on Saturday.
Next question is just how cold Monday morning. Appears the intensity of this arctic air mass is stronger and drier which should help scour out those pesky low clouds by Sunday afternoon/evening. Axis of the arctic surface high is still well N of SE TX Sunday night and expect winds will not fully decouple and go calm but remain in the 5-10mph range. Upstream cold air drainage from a very cold N TX with surface temperatures in the 10’s Monday AM would likely still support 20’s across a good portion of SE TX even with winds. For now will go with mid 20’s College Station to Lake Livingston and upper 20’s as far south as US 59. Tuesday morning could feature another freeze in many of those same areas.
Will need to keep an eye on wind chills Monday AM with surface temperatures in the 20’s in many areas and winds still in the 5-10mph range…certainly looking at 10’s on the wind chill chart.
Warm up begins after Tuesday as old arctic surface high shifts eastward and flow returns from the Gulf. Fairly large storm system takes aim at the southern plains for the Christmas weekend period. Impacts at this point are still over a week away…but stay tuned as this active pattern of late continues.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
so when will it start snowing?
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Heat Miser
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Don't hold your breath for that.skidog44 wrote:so when will it start snowing?
More likely to get freezing drizzle/rain around here if there's moisture with temps at freezing.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Brief warm up on Christmas Eve as the front approaches... Front arrives Christmas afternoon and drops us right back down.mcheer23 wrote:The last 4 runs for christmas ..not good...if you want cold weather
Week after Christmas is very chilly.
Team #NeverSummer
GFS looks kinda interesting at hour 252 fwiw....
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MontgomeryCoWx
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don wrote:GFS looks kinda interesting at hour 252 fwiw....
Yeah... I'd like to see that at 120 before I get too excited.
Team #NeverSummer
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mcheer23
- Pro Met
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- Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
- Contact:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Brief warm up on Christmas Eve as the front approaches... Front arrives Christmas afternoon and drops us right back down.mcheer23 wrote:The last 4 runs for christmas ..not good...if you want cold weather
Week after Christmas is very chilly.
As of now I believe we'll be caught in between fronts. Mild Christmas, very chilly afterwards. Still a good 8 days out though.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
mcheer23 wrote:MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Brief warm up on Christmas Eve as the front approaches... Front arrives Christmas afternoon and drops us right back down.mcheer23 wrote:The last 4 runs for christmas ..not good...if you want cold weather
Week after Christmas is very chilly.
As of now I believe we'll be caught in between fronts. Mild Christmas, very chilly afterwards. Still a good 8 days out though.
Yeah, I don't think we will know much at all until Wednesday/Thursday (timing wise)... It looks like the range it has honed in on is 12z Christmas and 12z day after Christmas. With that said, I hope it comes in faster as we do our bonfire Christmas night at the in laws. I'd hate for it to be 65.
Team #NeverSummer
Not for a while in SE Texasskidog44 wrote:so when will it start snowing?
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
I'm going to bah humbug the 12Z GFS and say that while it does look appetizing, nothing to necessarily get your heart set on. Even if it does have run-to-run consistency in the future, no model is necessarily reliable until at most 4-5 days out.
I'm looking at severe wx potential for you guys tomorrow, and I feel like the marginal zone should include the Eastern half of Harris country and points East. Looks like convective temps may be in the upper 70s, and assuming the sun is out more than not, it should not be too hard to erode the cap for people South and East of Houston, and bring in a damaging wind threat. Helicity values don't look too bad for a slim tornado threat either. What I just said is solely based on GFS soundings, for some reason I cannot get the Euro to pull up on airplane WiFi, and I have trust issues with the NAM after some bad experiences forecasting up here.
I'm looking at severe wx potential for you guys tomorrow, and I feel like the marginal zone should include the Eastern half of Harris country and points East. Looks like convective temps may be in the upper 70s, and assuming the sun is out more than not, it should not be too hard to erode the cap for people South and East of Houston, and bring in a damaging wind threat. Helicity values don't look too bad for a slim tornado threat either. What I just said is solely based on GFS soundings, for some reason I cannot get the Euro to pull up on airplane WiFi, and I have trust issues with the NAM after some bad experiences forecasting up here.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
