December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[mckinne63]

What a difference a day makes indeed! I was rather enjoying the cooler temps.

[Heat Miser]

It got very quiet around here. Probably has to do with models putting the breaks on big time with all the chirping in regards to comparing this December to 1983. lol It looks like we have a mild week coming up then glancing blows from the Arctic as the bulk of it goes East as it usually does. Maybe we can get a threat of wintry weather in late January but definitely wouldn't hold my breathe. I'm just hoping I'm not wearing flip flops around Christmas which could be a possibility. Horrible.

Those pesky models.
Glancing blows seem to be the theme last winter and this one. Typical Southeast Texas winter.
Flip Flops are probably more of a possibility than a heavy coat.

[Heat Miser]

Looks like they will die in 7-14 days then...

Models lie. They deceive. They make you believe something big is coming when in reality nothing extraordinary happens.
Wish they'd prove me wrong....

[srainhoutx]

Finally finished some Spring cleaning...well caught up on cleaning up the mancave, pool, ponds and other outdoor activities that needed attention. Nothing better than shorts and flip flops on December 11th.

[cperk]

srainhoutx we are gonna need a pep talk from a trusted and respected leader(that would be you) that winter is not even here yet and i am afraid the cancel winter banner is about to be hoisted.

[BlueJay]

Wait a minute. Winter has not even begun yet...

[Katdaddy]

Unsettled but warm weather through most of next week across SE TX as several weak cool fronts move across the area with clouds, morning fog, and 20-40% chance of showers. Some brief periods of cooling followed by more low 70s late next week and into the weekend…….well we will see about the 70s as a progressive pattern continues.

[cperk]

Wait a minute. Winter has not even begun yet...

LOL

[Ounce]

Tell that to Cleveland.

[snowman65]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

Just for fun check out Dec 27....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

Just for fun check out Dec 27....

That's what I was referring to earlier.... Cyclone bombs out and pushes a ridge into Alaska. So our 926 cyclone kills our ridge then repays the favor. I'm sure it will track into Alaska instead of deposit into the GOA.

[srainhoutx]

Progressive pattern continues throughout the coming week with a weak frontal boundary moving offshore later today then the next frontal boundary arriving Thursday. Another shot of modified Arctic air arrives Sunday with chances of a Winter storm system ejecting out of the Southern Rockies this weekend.

Pacific air appears to flood the Southern half of the United States the week before Christmas, but this warmup could be transient. The overnight longer range Climate models suggest a blocking pattern developing from Greenland into Eastern Canada with colder air returning as the New Year begins. Those worried that Winter is over must remember that January into February is our climatology favored period for colder and stormier wintry weather across Texas. Winter is not cancelled by any means.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Wild swings in temperatures expected the next 7 days with generally cloudy skies each day.

Passage of frontal boundary (both warm and cold) will be the main story the next week as the area faces as many as 5 fronts over the next 7 days. The first cold front is currently moving into the area this morning and should push into the Gulf this morning which will keep temperatures in the 60’s for most areas today under mainly cloudy skies. This boundary begins to return northward as a warm front late tonight and early Tuesday. Going to probably need to hit the sea fog threat hard tonight into early Tuesday along the coast with high dewpoint air mass south of the coastal boundary over recently chilled nearshore waters around 60 along with light winds. Will likely see visibilities crater this evening and only slowly recover on Tuesday near the coast. Temperatures will warm back into the 70’s on Tuesday and Wednesday before another weak front crosses the area late Wednesday. This front will knock high temperatures into the mid 50’s for Thursday under continued cloudy skies as warm air is lifted over the surface cool dome.

The late Wednesday front returns northward as a warm front on Friday and while the day will start off cold…strong warm air advection will result in temperatures rising likely well into the 70’s both Friday and Saturday (may near 80). Strong cold front will blast through the region late Saturday with rapidly falling temperatures…Sunday is looking cold and wet with strong upglide over the surface cold dome…not expecting much of any temperature rise on Sunday and will level out temps. In the upper 40’s to near 50. Not expecting any significant intrusion of the arctic air mass over the northern US…incoming fronts will be highly modified pieces of that air mass with the majority of the very cold air moving from the northern plains toward the Great Lakes and NE US.

Overall periods of isentropic upglide behind cold frontal passages and ahead of warm fronts this week will enhance periods of light rain and showers. Pattern is favorable for dense sea fog along the coast ahead of any fronts where dewpoints rise into the mid and upper 60’s. Rain will be mainly light with periods of drizzle, showers, light rain, and fog nearly everyday for the next week. Not looking for much sun as moisture remains trapped in the frontal inversions below 850mb and weak disturbances moves overhead in the fairly zonal flow.

[Heat Miser]

Now we're talking possibly the end of the year or the beginning of next for the possibility of a frosty blast?
Statistically speaking there's no need for a model to show us or hint around that we could have that late December, January or February.
What happened to this mighty blast for later in the week?
Ahh, those pesky models didn't pan out once again.
Hold tight folks we may get a shot of really cold air, maybe.

[Heat Miser]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

Just for fun check out Dec 27....

Why? It will change in the next few runs and by the time we get closer to the 27th, which is 15 days away, in model time an eternity, it will be nothing like what they depicted today. Basically post frontal overriding and a chilly rain.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

srain is right... this pattern change looks very transient. GFS can't make up its mind, but it wants to reestablish blocking over the poles and a big bad negative EPO in the long range.

I'm not sure what the most impressive part of this map is... The SE ridge, the GOA or the blocking up north of 60???

[DoctorMu]

srain is right... this pattern change looks very transient. GFS can't make up its mind, but it wants to reestablish blocking over the poles and a big bad negative EPO in the long range.

I'm not sure what the most impressive part of this map is... The SE ridge, the GOA or the blocking up north of 60???

No doubt we'll see intermittent mouths of arctic air. Siberia's in a remarkable deep freeze. Any blocking will break down from time to time...timing looks challenging beyond 5 days (not that this usually isn't the case anyway). This time of year, there is a lot of variability and dynamic changes across Texas...

[snowman65]

Dec 27 still showing a close call...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=211

[srainhoutx]

As we always remind folks regarding the models schemes, never trust them beyond 2 to 3 days verbatim in a highly volatile pattern. That said the GEFS Ensemble scheme for next weekend into next Monday suggest a splitting Pacific jet and a cold upper trough extending from the Great Lakes/NE back SW to offshore of California. Still think additional changes lie ahead particularly regarding the weekend Winter Storm ejecting out of New Mexico into the Central and Southern Plains. Pattern recognition goes along way when attempting to forecast a week out...

[DoctorMu]

^A great case made for analogs!