Wx Infinity Forums

Will we see cooler temps or will summer struggle to hang around? We need rain! post your thoughts

I hope, but I doubt it.

Oct-Nov = warm
Dec-Jan = fairly warm
Feb-March = not as warm

How's that? lol

Everything I see points to above-normal temps and below-normal rainfall in November. We may get a significant cold front around Thanksgiving. Next 2-3 weeks look above-normal, temperature-wise.

Next Saturday (11/5)... I'm seeing 57 to 78 for my high and low which would be average for this time of year.

Love this weather. Keep winter away.

I don't mind the warmth, just need some rain.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Next Saturday (11/5)... I'm seeing 57 to 78 for my high and low which would be average for this time of year.

Last few runs of the GFS have 65-86 next Saturday in Conroe.

This fall/winter season will probably end up warmer than last fall/winter. Definitely drier.

+10 over average temps and half the average rain. 80 on turkey day.

jasons wrote:I don't mind the warmth, just need some rain.

We can use the rain. The warmth can leave. Too many mosquitoes and other insects flying.

Ptarmigan wrote:

jasons wrote:I don't mind the warmth, just need some rain.

We can use the rain. The warmth can leave. Too many mosquitoes and other insects flying.

Most mosquitos I've seen in a decade. We could use a few cool nights. I've prepped for brown patch as much as possible with sulfur, fungicide, avoiding evening/night watering. A few bouts of freezing weather this winter to knock down the insect population. I think we'll see a few cold snaps with hard freezes at night interspersed with extended warm, dry weather.

GFS is sniffing out wet weather Tuesday, Wednesday and mostly around the 9-10th, with a significant cold front to follow. Lasts a few days with lows in the 40s in CLL, close to 50 in IAH around the 11th-14th. Highs in the 60s; 50s in CLL. We'll see.

Latest GFS run has lows in the upper 30s sneaking into east Texas on the 13th.

Wednesday's rain chances went from 50% down to 30%.

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Near record to record highs likely for Halloween 2016.

Upper air pattern remains similar to the last many weeks with upper level ridge in place across much of the southern US and central plains leading to record late season warmth. Afternoon high temperatures have been pushing 85-90 each day and today’s record high is 88 which is also the current forecast high. Would not be surprised to see several locations hit 90 this afternoon as a slightly drier air mass has backed into the region from the NE overnight.

Tropical moisture over the central Gulf of Mexico will begin its return to the region starting late this afternoon around Matagorda Bay and then across areas west of I-45 Tuesday. Radar shows a good bit of shower activity off the middle TX coast this morning moving toward the WNW which will likely start to bring some of this activity inland between Corpus Christi and Palacios by early to mid afternoon.

Best chances for rainfall in a long time will be found west of I-45 Tuesday-Thursday as the increasing Gulf moisture interacts with a dying frontal boundary over the region. Will cap rain chances at 40-50% for Tuesday and Wednesday with best chances from Matagorda Bay NNW toward Austin.

Large high pressure builds into the SE US this weekend with another backdoor cool front approaching from the NE late Thursday into Friday. A significantly drier air mass will build into the region Friday into the weekend with lows falling toward 60, but highs remaining above average. Not expecting much rainfall with this boundary over SE TX.

Very Long Range:
As we look for an end to this seemingly never ending summer…long range models are starting to indicate a significant upper level pattern change over the US starting next week and continuing into December. This change may result in a significant amount of colder air invading the US along with a more active storm track. Initial storm system next week will bear close watch as latest guidance suggests a strong compact upper level low barreling across TX next week with potentially some very active weather.

HGX Office:

The ridge over the area will be weakening and shifting east which will allow the deeper
moisture pooled over the Gulf to the east of the upper shear axis
near Brownsville to nose up into the Matagorda Bay region late
this afternoon which could lead to some isolated showers there.

Moisture will be on the increase across the region Tuesday morning
and will probably see another round of fog across the area. In
addition scattered showers transitioning over to showers and
thunderstorms by mid morning first near the coast then expanding
north over the area with heating (mainly west of I-45). Rain
chances continue on Wednesday mainly driven by daytime heating and
morning speed convergence near the coast. Elevated tide levels on
tap for the first half of the week. Thursday a cold front slowly
sags south through the state and prefrontal troughing may help to
lessen the rain chances with winds backing before the fropa early
Friday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday have a chance of seeing some
brief heavy downpours with slow moving storms but then by Thursday
coverage will probably be lower and amounts lighter.

1025-1030mb high builds into lower MS valley Friday through
Sunday and drier weather should return to SETX but with more
cloud cover so probably a smaller diurnal range over the west and
larger in the east with the greater dry air and lesser cloud
cover. The extended guidance starting to point toward an
interesting weather pattern for SETX Monday-Wednesday with a
vigorous upper low bowling balling into TX with the potential for
generous rainfall over the eastern half of TX or possibly focused
closer to the coast...maybe even some severe potential but of
course it is fall and the models haven`t been verifying well
beyond 144 hours. Stay tuned.

MARINE...

GFS stays consistent on the colder air making it our way after 240 hours.

Moisture will continue to increase across SE TX today with a 20%-30% chance of scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. In addition long fetch of E to SE winds will keep tides elevated along the Upper TX Coast. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday when a cool front moves into the area resulting in a little cooler and much drier weekend. The moisture begins to return Sunday followed increasing thunderstorm chances next Monday and Tuesday.

Rain chances went from 50% to 30%, now down to 20%. It's like Lucy, Charlie Brown, & a football.