November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

[Katdaddy]

SE TX experienced some well needed heavy rains early this morning which have pushed E of the area. The heaviest rains fell just E of Galveston Bay in Jefferson County where 4-8" of rain fell this morning. Rain chances decrease through the week with showers and thunderstorms remaining possible as an upper level low remains across W TX and MX.

[redneckweather]

So all this complaining from Jason about his house being in a drought and when he finally does get some good rain, he doesn't post about it? lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Oh boy!!!!

https://twitter.com/spann/status/795441274824359936

I see a large upper level trough over Southeast Texas. That means rain and cooler weather. Perhaps severe weather?

Yep and as Spann points out, a major pattern flip to much colder and stormy!

[jasons2k]

I'm happy to report 1.40" over the last 24 hours. A much needed reprieve - I'll take it!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

2.08" here

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied 2.57 inches of rain out of the gauge for 24 hours in NW Harris County. Drier air has filtered in behind the MCS that moved across the Region last night, but another shortwave is headed our way from Mexico late tonight into tomorrow with additional chances of rain.

[Texaspirate11]

About 1.5 inches of rain by the bay. Not complaining. Its something to feed to the garden....

[tireman4]

HGX AFD

478
FXUS64 KHGX 071138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016

.AVIATION...
Difficult forecast pertaining to chances for showers and for
ceilings. Current observations and satellite show the potential
for IFR to LIFR through about 16Z for most locations. KGLS at the
coast may see some VFR breaks during this period. During the late
morning most locations should improve to MVFR with the two
coastal sites (KLBX and KGLS) having better VFR chances. Most
models bring MVFR or lower conditions back by 03Z or so this
evening.

Regarding chances for showers, am expecting a break through the
morning with subsidence behind the line of showers and storms that
went through early this morning and were off the coast at 1130Z.
Most of the high resolution models keep rain chances out of the
picture for most of the day. However, there was a disturbance
evident in the water vapor over northern Mexico at 11Z and the
state was under the left-front quadrant of the upper level jet
stream. For this reason, think that chances for showers should
return during the afternoon and early evening.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An MCS moved through SE TX last night and it looks like subsidence
will dominate in the wake of this system for at least the morning
hours and have trimmed PoPs back significantly. Global models
remain bullish with rain chances today while short term guidance
like the TT WRF, Hi-Res NMM and ARW all support drier conditions.
PW values remain around 1.60 inches and SE TX will remain in a
diffluent upper level wind pattern so it`s not unreasonable to
expect some shra/tsra later today. Water vapor imagery shows a
weak disturbance over Northern Mexico and this feature should
serve as a catalyst for more showers later today. Have split the
difference between the drier short term guidance and the wetter
global models. The 00z TT WRF from last night did a great job so
am worried it`s much drier solution will pan out today and current
PoPS fcst will be too high. Weak isentropic upglide will develop
Tuesday as a SW flow aloft overrides cooler NE sfc winds. Clouds
and some patchy light rain will be possible especially closer to
the coast and offshore.

The upglide weakens Wed/Thu as the upper low over W TX
retrogrades westward. Surface high pressure builds into the
central plains and slightly drier surface air will move into SE
TX. Should be plenty of cirrus streaming overhead embedded in the
jet. SE TX will lie in a subsident zone of the jet so forcing/lift
will be limited and rain chances should be slight to nil with the
higher chances over the Gulf. Temps mid week look to return to
normal levels for this time of year.

The upper low eventually shears out as it moves to the NE next
Saturday. The surface high also shifts east next weekend. Should
get a bit more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures next
weekend. 43

MARINE...
Winds are expected to diminish as the complex of storms pushes
offshore this morning. A coastal low may move up the offshore waters
later tonight and Tuesday and help keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. The main threats from any
storms that do occur will be strong gusty winds.

The other items of concern for today is the tide levels. The strong
easterly winds from earlier has led to tide levels that may generate
brief flooding of roadways on the Bolivar Peninsula during and
shortly after the times of high tide. Because of this, a Coastal
Flood Advisory is in effect until 9 AM today. Higher than normal
tides may again cause some minor flooding later tonight during the
times of high tide once again.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 63 73 60 70 / 50 30 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 78 64 76 62 73 / 50 30 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 78 70 76 66 75 / 50 30 30 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Chambers...Galveston.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters
from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40

[DoctorMu]

4.25 inches of the wet stuff here in CLL over the last 24 hours.

[GBinGrimes]

The "official" rain total for the past 24 hrs in Anderson was 1.29 inches. That gauge must have a leak. My unofficial rain gauge are the dog food bowls and they were overrunning. That's a good 3 1/2 inches at least. It was pouring buckets yesterday afternoon\evening.

[cperk]

3.88 inches in 24 hour period here in Richmond.

[Katdaddy]

1.16" here in League City which was very welcomed.Some isolated but strong thunderstorms across Central and STX with a Tornado Warning being issued in STX a little earlier this evening. The unsettled weather pattern continues with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and Wednesday before some partly to mostly sunny skies arrive on Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms return to the coastal areas and SW portions of SE TX Friday through the weekend however the temps look to be much more Fall-like with highs in the low to mid 70s and the lows in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s along the coast. A beautiful sunset this evening which I did not catch due to the time change and a patch of cumulus clouds who were slow to move out of the way.

[Katdaddy]

Rain chances remain in the forecast today and tonight as a cool front moves across SE TX and into the GOM. Showers and thunderstorms over Central TX this morning continue to push slowly SE toward the Middle TX Coast. Cooler drier air with partly cloudy skies the next several days with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s across most of SE TX. It will finally feel like Fall has arrived.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper air disturbance moving across TX this morning resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms over S and C TX.

Active radar this morning from near Waco SSW to Austin and San Antonio and then southward into deep south TX with numerous showers and thunderstorms. This activity is in response to an upper level disturbance that is moving across the state from NE MX. Leading edge of this activity is just NW of Victoria to just west of College Station, but there has been a general weakening trend the last several hours with the storms north of I-10.

Air mass over SE TX is fairly stable with a thick low cloud deck, fog, and some drizzle. Dry air is attempting to advect SW across the region from Louisiana. This SW transport of drier air should help to keep the advancing C TX rainfall mainly west of the Brazos River today with the best chances from the middle TX coast NNW to west of College Station where 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. East of the Brazos River…cannot completely rule out a shower, but the chances fall off quickly to around 20-30% versus 60-70% out west.

A cold front will push off the coast tonight ending rain chances for the rest of the week into the weekend as a dry and cooler air mass moves down the plains. Will likely still see some clouds Wednesday into Thursday as the frontal slope is overrun by SW mid level flow, but this overrunning will end by late Thursday with clear skies expected Friday into the weekend.

Lows will fall well into the 50’s each night Thursday-next Tuesday with some chance for lows into the 40’s Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the low to mid 70’s.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning:


00
FXUS64 KHGX 081148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Water vapor imagery shows broad troughing over much of Texas this
morning which is support convection mainly over central Texas. A
few showers could affect KCLL this morning but overall thinking is
that convection will remain west of area terminals. CIGS this
morning are all LIFR/IFR with very low ceilings combined with
patchy fog since T/Td spreads are low. TAFs lean more on GFS LAMP
guidance with a prolonged IFR/MVFR event for the terminals. A
frontal boundary will be moving through the area later
today/tonight which will keep winds from the N/NE through the TAF
period. Ceilings should gradually improve today to mainly MVFR in
the afternoon. There may be a couple hours of VFR but think low
ceilings develop again late evening and into the overnight. For
now TAFs keep MVFR CIGS overnight but could very well see IFR.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A long wave trough over the plains and western Texas will keep a
southwesterly flow aloft over SE Texas today through Wednesday. In
the meantime, a cold front at the surface will move across SE
Texas later today and off the coast tonight. The airmass resident
across the area early this morning was still a bit stable.
However, model forecast soundings indicate that moisture levels
will be on the rise and the upper profile will become more
unstable as the surface winds become more easterly throughout the
day. Think that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be over the western and southwestern counties but could not
rule out a chance elsewhere as the front moves into the area.
Drier and cooler air will filter into the area later tonight and
Wednesday and lead to below normal temperatures both periods.

Both the GFS and ECMWF develop an upper low over the El Paso area
by Wednesday night. In turn, an upstream ridge will develop over
the forecast area Thursday and Friday. This will lead to daytime
temperatures warming back into the lower and mid 70s.

Both models then break down the upper ridge and wash out the
upper low as it drifts northeastward into the Southern Plains over
the weekend. By the start of next week, a more westerly flow
pattern will be over the area as another upper level trough
develops over the Southern Plains and western Texas. This in turn
will lead to a continued warming trend and a return of rain
chances.

40

MARINE...
Light/moderate east to northeast winds will precede a frontal
boundary this morning and afternoon. The front should push through
the Upper Texas Coastal waters this afternoon and evening. The
pressure gradient should tighten tonight and support strong north to
northeast winds. Small craft exercise caution may be needed early
Wednesday morning as seas build in response to the increased winds.
Winds may increase more Wednesday night into Thursday which would
require advisories for the coastal waters. Winds should decrease for
the end of the week as high pressure builds over Texas but still
likely remain near or above moderate levels from the northeast.

Tide levels will need to be monitored the next few days. While tide
levels have decreased and should continue to decrease with offshore
winds tonight and tomorrow, tides may still be above normal levels
due to wind directions becoming northeast for the end of the week.
Tide levels could still become 1 foot above normal at times which
would push total tide levels about 3 feet above MLLW potentially
each of the next 3 nights at high tide.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 61 67 56 67 / 40 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 62 74 58 73 / 30 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 69 72 66 71 / 30 30 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

[Katdaddy]

Patches of light rain and drizzle across TX this morning. Rain chances decrease today followed by periods of partly sunny, mostly sunny, and cloudy skies through the weekend with the continued SW flow aloft thanks to an upper level trough and upper level low that forecast to develop over MX and then shear out over the Plains during the weekend. Temps will be more Fall-like into the weekend across SE TX.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016

.AVIATION...
Drier air filtering into the region from the northeast and
daytime heating has allowed ceilings to lift to VFR at nearly all
TAF sites, but brief MVFR ceilings will remain possible through
early afternoon before enough dry air penetrates the region to
completely scour out lower clouds. The lone holdout with category
restrictions this afternoon appears to be College Station where
isentropic upglide will promote IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities
from light drizzle/rain through 19-20Z. As this upglide weakens
and drier air moves in, expect MVFR conditions to prevail by 21Z
and transition to VFR by this evening.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites
this evening through the remainder of the TAF period. Elevated
northeast winds 10-12 knots will continue this afternoon (with a
few stronger gusts approaching 20 knots), before decreasing to
less than 8 knots this evening as surface high pressure builds
farther into Texas.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2016/

UPDATE...
Temperature forecast is for the most part on track. Adjusted
afternoon highs slightly, considering the decent cloud cover that
will hang tight throughout the day as seen on visible satellite
imagery. Surface winds from the NE are keeping most of the showers
over the offshore waters this morning. Tweaked PoPs slightly to
account for current radar observations and trends in the short
term guidance. Most of the light rain and the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm will remain over the Gulf waters this
afternoon. Short term models are picking up on some light rain to
drizzle over the NW counties of the forecast area moving into the
early evening hours. Overnight, global model guidance is still
supporting a drying trend, bring dewpoints into the low to mid 50s.
Therefore, drier conditions are expected as the moisture supply
fizzles out, lowering our rain chances overnight and into the
early morning.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 55 70 50 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 76 58 73 54 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 74 64 72 63 73 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...14

[BlueJay]

Salute to all Veterans today!

[srainhoutx]

Absolutely Blue Jay! We are very blessed to have people that are willing to sacrifice so much for the Freedom we ALL share. Thank you to ALL of our Veterans and their families that have sacrificed so much for our Nation!

[snowman65]

Thank you for your thanks! USMC 1986-1990 Semper Fi......