November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

[srainhoutx]

The weekend looks like we will finally see some significant changes brewing regarding our rain chances and the potential of a rather potent storm system moving across the Southern Plains and Texas. The latest MJO data is in rather good agreement via the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggesting unsettled weather may be ahead. Election Day Eve and Day could be rather stormy for our Region.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The weekend looks like we will finally see some significant changes brewing regarding our rain chances and the potential of a rather potent storm system moving across the Southern Plains and Texas. The latest MJO data is in rather good agreement via the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggesting unsettled weather may be ahead. Election Day Eve and Day could be rather stormy for our Region.

Hell yes! Bring on the cooler weather and rain!

[DoctorMu]

Some seabreeze-like returns on the radar. We'll take it.

DP up to 72F. Horribly slimy, but if we get some rain out of it, I'll be happy.

[srainhoutx]

Showers and a few rumbles of thunder moving across NW Harris County. Been a long time since I've actually heard thunder.

[unome]

Showers and a few rumbles of thunder moving across NW Harris County. Been a long time since I've actually heard thunder.

it's like music

[BlueJay]

Yes! It is a nice thunder shower happening!

[A.V.]

The change to cooler weather can be gradual. Things will be nasty if it is too abrupt.

[Katdaddy]

A tropical sunset ongoing across the Upper TX Coast this evening on Nov 1st.

[Cromagnum]

Nothing at my house yesterday. Here is hoping to some rain today.

[redneckweather]

Man, we got one hell of a storm yesterday afternoon around the Lake Conroe Dam. It was a big time turd floater with some of the most intense lightning I have ever seen. It actually knocked our power out. We got around 2 inches at least....yard was ponding up and ditch lines were full. Was not expecting that! I believe a house caught on fire in Conroe because of the lightning. Can't believe know one else posted about this.

[tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning. Notice the high temperatures and the threat of breaking records today and tomorrow...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 021135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR cigs have developed at KCXO and KUTS but for the most part,
visibility and cigs have remained VFR. could still get some patchy
fog through 14z and some MVFR-IFR cigs early this morning. Clouds
should begin to mix out and cigs should rise to between 035-045
feet by late morning. Daytime heating will trigger some late
morning/afternoon shra/tsra today. Fcst soundings don`t show much
capping so should get some thunder later today. Precip should end
between 23-01z. RAP looks a bit overdone and did not initialize
well so leaned toward the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF for TAFs. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today across Southeast
Texas, with temperatures as of 4 AM CDT still in the upper 60s to
low 70s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than
normal temperatures for this time of year and both Houston Hobby
and Galveston have the potential to set record high minimum
temperatures this morning. In addition to the warm start to the
day, rain chances will also increase across the region as waves of
moisture spread inland from the Gulf. Area radars show light warm
air advection showers developing across portions of South Central
Texas associated with weak upglide from a 20-25 knot low level jet
(as seen on the Ft. Hood VAD Wind Profiler). Showers were also
developing farther east south of the Sabine Pass in an area of
speed convergence.

CIRA layer precipitable water vapor imagery shows precipitable
water values anywhere from 1.4 to 1.8 inches just off the Upper
Texas Coast this morning, with a core of deeper moisture sitting
just off the southern Louisiana coast. As this plume of higher
moisture advects east today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
expand into the eastern coastal waters, building north into the
extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating
will allow scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage to expand
inland as this moisture pushes farther into the region. With
precipitable water values climbing to near 1.8 inches this
afternoon, cannot rule out brief heavy downpours in stronger
activity... but anticipate most folks who see rain to simply
receive some much needed light to moderate rainfall. Otherwise,
expect high temperatures to rise into the mid 80s with Galveston
potentially setting another record high temperature this
afternoon.

Expect any activity that develops to wane inland with loss of
heating tonight, but coastal convergence will encourage scattered
showers and thunderstorms to linger along the coast and across
coastal waters during the overnight hours. Mostly cloudy skies
will keep overnight lows elevated again in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Both Galveston and Houston Hobby (again) may tie or set
record high minimum temperatures on Thursday morning. More
information about these records is contained in the climate
section below.

Analysis of 00Z radiosonde observations showed a weak shortwave
trough over the ArkLaTex, with upper ridging building over the
southeastern U.S. and an upper trough located over the Great
Basin. As a mid-level speed max over California rounds the base of
this trough later today, model guidance continues to advertise a
cut-off low developing over Arizona and dropping south into New
Mexico. This low looks to meander over northwest Mexico over the
next few days, with its parent trough translating east towards the
Great Plains later today. This trough will provide enough forcing
to nudge a cold front into the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the
front making additional progress across Texas during the day
Thursday.

Thursday will also be another warm day ahead of the cold front
with highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected again
Thursday ahead of the front, with some of this activity again
capable of brief heavy rainfall. The cold front will move across
the region Thursday night into Friday, with rain chances ending
from northeast to southwest across the forecast area behind the
front. Drier air will lag behind the front a bit and not arrive
until Friday night, and areas west of Interstate 45 may still have
enough available moisture during the day Friday to get an isolated
daytime shower or thunderstorm to develop. Otherwise, expect highs
Friday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Upper ridging over the Gulf will expand westward over Texas
through the end of the work week and into the beginning of the
weekend as an upper trough moves into the eastern U.S., with dry
and pleasant conditions expected across the region. Expect cool
mornings with lows in the 50s (low 60s along the coast) and
afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

As the cutoff low over northwest Mexico lifts towards the Rocky
Mountains by late weekend, it looks to shear into an open wave.
Gradually returning moisture and lift from this passing upper
feature will result in increasing rain chances for the western
counties at the beginning of next week. Medium range guidance is
continuing to advertise a second upper wave reaching the Southern
Plains by next Tuesday, cutting it off over West Texas. Will need
to continue to watch the evolution of this feature as where this
low is located will influence mid-week temperatures and rain
chances. For now have trended close to climatology, with 20-30
PoPs in the extended until better model consensus is achieved.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the
Texas panhandle will produce a moderate onshore flow today.
Elevated seas/swells will persist today as a long fetch of E-SE
winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Will maintain a SCEC for
the offshore waters as seas are expected to remain near 5 feet.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and this will
bring tide levels to around 3.2 feet later tonight. May see some
minor coastal flooding tonight along Highway 87 during high tide.

A cold front will move off the coast Friday morning with moderate
N-NE winds developing in the wake of the front. Another SCEC will
likely be needed Fri night into Saturday. High pressure over the
eastern U.S. will maintain a moderate east wind on Sunday. 43

CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures across the region may tie or break
record high maximum and/or record high minimum temperatures today
and Thursday, with the most likely locations being Houston Hobby
and Galveston. A listing of records for official climate sites is
provided below.

FOR NOVEMBER 2ND...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 89 (1978) 71 (1946)
HOUSTON HOU 88 (1950) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 89 (1955) 72 (1945)
GALVESTON 82 (2000) 76 (1946)

FOR NOVEMBER 3RD...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 87 (1992) 74 (1994)
HOUSTON HOU 90 (1973) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 88 (1948) 74 (1994)
GALVESTON 85 (1886) 74 (2000)

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 70 83 66 80 / 30 20 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 85 72 84 67 83 / 30 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 82 71 80 / 30 30 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[tireman4]

713
FXUS64 KHGX 021529
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast for this afternoon and into the evening appears to be on
track. Adjusted the max temperatures and dew points slightly to
account for the latest observations. Another abnormally warm day
can be expected, with highs in the mid-80s across SE Texas. No
changes have been made to PoPs for this afternoon. Daytime heating
along with onshore flow will advect low-level moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico more inland, aiding the possibility of showers and
thunderstorm development for this afternoon. Expect coverage to be
scattered to isolated, beginning in the west and eventually
sweeping across the forecast area.

Hathaway

[Cromagnum]

Jackshit as far as rain goes. This fall sucks.

[jasons2k]

All time November High in Galveston tied today with 85 degrees.

Commonplace.

[Katdaddy]

Some well needed rains ongoing across NW, N and Central TX this morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms across SE TX today and Friday before the cool front pushes across the area Friday evening and night bring us a very nice weekend with cooler temps and drier air. The weather pattern continues to look unsettled for next week with periods of rain and thunderstorms.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see signs of hope regarding our rain chance extending into the Medium Range and possibly just beyond mid November. The sub tropical jet has abundant moisture feeding East toward the SW and Southern US and the Ensembles continue to suggest the MJO will move into a more favorable Phase 8 regime as we near mid month. That typically suggests more Eastern Pacific tropic moisture spreading across the Sate and a potential continuation of Upper Level lows spinning near New Mexico and West Texas.

[sau27]

I definitely had one of those strange weather occurances yesterday. I was so happy to see that it looked like it was finally raining at my house on radar on my way home. I got home only to find that the front yard was nice and damp but the backyard was bone dry. Go figure.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning:


000
FXUS64 KHGX 031238
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick update to add 40 PoPs for extreme northern and northwestern
portions of the forecast area based on latest radar trends. Line
of thunderstorms from earlier this morning continues to weaken,
but new development continues along and ahead of an associated
outflow boundary stretching from near Temple to Tyler. MSAS
analysis shows the cold pool behind this boundary continuing to
modify and confidence is not high in the boundary making it very
far into the forecast area as a result. Also added a mention of
isolated showers to the marine areas. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast, with surface analysis showing the cold frontal
boundary stretching from near the Davis Mountains to North Central
Texas.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/

AVIATION...
A line of shra/tsra associated with a weak and slow moving cold
front over N TX will weaken as they approach a capped environment
over SE TX. A few streamer showers will approach the coast early
this morning but these should also dissipate as they move inland.
Areas of fog and low ceilings could impact TAF sites early this
morning. A brief period of IFR cigs possible at KIAH, KCXO and
KUTS through 14z with conds improving rapidly thereafter. Short
term guidance keeps most of the shra/tsra west of the TAF sites
today. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Regional radar mosaic shows a line of thunderstorms associated
with a cold front pushing east-southeast across North Central
Texas early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis this morning shows mid
level flow nearly parallel to the frontal boundary across portions
of North Central Texas this morning, which provides little support for
the front to reach Southeast Texas today. However, the cold pool
associated with the ongoing thunderstorm line will allow both the
thunderstorms to propagate closer towards the region through the
remainder of the morning hours.

Evening soundings from Shreveport and Lake Charles showed a well
defined cap around 750 MB and expect this line to weaken as it
encounters an increasingly stable environment. Have added 20-30
PoPs to the western and northern counties in case any activity is
able to make it into these areas this morning, but concerned that
these thunderstorms will dissipate north of the region and cause
the associated frontal boundary to stall. This would keep most of
the forecast area dry through the morning hours, with the main
sensible weather concern being patchy fog lingering through mid-
morning.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low over Arizona
with broad anticyclonic flow in place across the Gulf of Mexico
associated with an expansive upper ridge. This is resulting in
southwest flow aloft across Texas this morning, which will allow a
mid/upper level disturbance to translate across the state out of
Mexico today. While this disturbance looks to stay too far north
and west of the region to serve as an appreciable trigger for
convection today, its passage should provide enough of a push to
send the stalled frontal boundary into the region later this
afternoon and evening... with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing generally west of Interstate 45 as a
result. Can`t rule out a few diurnally driven showers farther
east, but anticipate best rain chances to be west of the
Interstate 45 corridor today given the anticipated trajectory of
this shortwave trough. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies today with unseasonably warm temperatures rising again into
the low to mid 80s this afternoon.

A few showers may linger along the frontal boundary this evening
as it moves towards the coast during the morning hours, but
expect another dry night overnight with lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. An upper trough now located over the Midwest will continue to
slide towards the southeastern U.S. tonight and Friday, allowing a
reinforcing front to backdoor into the region during the afternoon
and evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will again be possible along this secondary boundary, but drier
air filtering into the region in the wake of this feature will
result in a dry start to the weekend. Expect highs in the mid 70s
to near 80 with lows in the 50s to low 60s this weekend. Rain
chances will increase for areas west of the Interstate 45
corridor by Sunday as Gulf moisture surges back into the region
and the cutoff low over Arizona shears into an open wave as it
swings towards the Central and Southern Plains.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the Monday
through Wednesday portion of the forecast, but the general trend
amongst medium range guidance is to develop a secondary cutoff low
somewhere from the Desert Southwest to West Texas and meander this
feature west of the region. Smaller disturbances rotating around
this feature look to induce a coastal trough along the Texas
coast, but deterministic guidance offers differing solutions on
when this feature may approach Southeast Texas (the European
offers a faster early week solution, while the GFS brings the
trough through later in the week). Regardless, the early to middle
part of next week looks to be defined by periods of showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures near seasonal normals as a result.

Huffman

MARINE...
Elevated seas/swells will gradually dampen as winds as the long
east fetch across the Gulf of Mexico weakens and becomes more NE.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and tide levels
peaked near 3.0 feet earlier tonight at high tide. A cold front
will move off the coast Friday but pressure rises behind the front
are not all that impressive as the high shifts more to the east
instead of south. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit over
the weekend as surface low pressure over central plains deepens
and onshore winds will strengthen Saturday night. Elevated tides
near 3.0 feet will again be possible Saturday night. SE winds will
increase Sunday through Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms and moderate onshore winds
are expected over the western Gulf early next week as the coastal
trough remains nearly stationary across the Upper Texas Coast. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 66 82 60 76 / 30 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 68 84 61 79 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 81 69 77 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14

[jasons2k]

A cap in November?? Geez. Amazing that areas to our north and west are getting a soaking and here along the coast we sit high and dry.

[DoctorMu]

Trick or Treat - as of Halloween, Siberia and most of Russia is covered with snow, the greatest expanse since 1998. While much of the winter could be warm and dry in Texas, don't preclude a few Polar Express trains making a journey down the easter slope of the Rockies into the plains.