srainhoutx wrote:Still some uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving Day sensible weather forecast. Currently it appears a frontal boundary slowly crosses Texas next Wednesday offering cooler and drier weather next Thursday. We will fine tune the weather outlook as we get a bit closer.
I am beginning to see some changes in the longer range as we begin December. It appears a very complex blocking pattern may develop and possibly bring much colder air across the Great Plains and the Eastern US possibly including Texas and our local Region. If this blocking signature is legitimate, that 'stepping down' process of a series of progressively stronger cold fronts may be possible. We will save those longer range prognostications for a new December Topic in the days ahead...
srainhoutx wrote:Still some uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving Day sensible weather forecast. Currently it appears a frontal boundary slowly crosses Texas next Wednesday offering cooler and drier weather next Thursday. We will fine tune the weather outlook as we get a bit closer.
I am beginning to see some changes in the longer range as we begin December. It appears a very complex blocking pattern may develop and possibly bring much colder air across the Great Plains and the Eastern US possibly including Texas and our local Region. If this blocking signature is legitimate, that 'stepping down' process of a series of progressively stronger cold fronts may be possible. We will save those longer range prognostications for a new December Topic in the days ahead...
I'm so excited, I'm so excited.... let's go 1983!
The morning Updated GFS Super Ensembles for Day 11+ so far do not indicate a 1983 analog, but you can see the ensembles are 'sniffing' the Hemispheric Blocking Regime potential. I am also seeing indications via the Teleconnection Indices of a crashing Arctic Oscillation as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation which can be precursors of a rather significant pattern change as we near the Winter Solstice. Stay Tuned...particularly in the December Topic likely coming in the next few days.
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srainhoutx wrote:Still some uncertainty regarding the Thanksgiving Day sensible weather forecast. Currently it appears a frontal boundary slowly crosses Texas next Wednesday offering cooler and drier weather next Thursday. We will fine tune the weather outlook as we get a bit closer.
I am beginning to see some changes in the longer range as we begin December. It appears a very complex blocking pattern may develop and possibly bring much colder air across the Great Plains and the Eastern US possibly including Texas and our local Region. If this blocking signature is legitimate, that 'stepping down' process of a series of progressively stronger cold fronts may be possible. We will save those longer range prognostications for a new December Topic in the days ahead...
I'm so excited, I'm so excited.... let's go 1983!
The morning Updated GFS Super Ensembles for Day 11+ so far do not indicate a 1983 analog, but you can see the ensembles are 'sniffing' the Hemispheric Blocking Regime potential. I am also seeing indications via the Teleconnection Indices of a crashing Arctic Oscillation as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation which can be precursors of a rather significant pattern change as we near the Winter Solstice. Stay Tuned...particularly in the December Topic likely coming in the next few days.
It's more the pattern that is forming than the Ensembles at this point. If that block locks in the coming days, we will absolutely have a series of cold fronts in December, and frankly, December is my favorite time for cold weather. I'm going skiing at Big Sky the last week of December. I'd love some -10F and double blacks!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016
.AVIATION...
Scattered to broken clouds streaming up ahead of lowering central
Texas surface pressure associated with an approaching cold front.
Early day streamer showers to move across with rain better filling
in as the front...or the pre-frontal trough...enters southeastern
Texas later this morning. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms
will impact the terminals through the late afternoon hours. The
forecast timing of the cold frontal passage at CLL will be between
Noon and 2 PM...across the Houston terminals between 3 and 5 PM...and
through GLS between 6 and 8 PM. Moderate northerlies and clear skies
in this front`s wake early Saturday morning...strong offshore coastal
winds will persist through Saturday afternoon. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...
The cold front is still on track to move through Southeast Texas today
with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary.
Look for the best chance of rain in the morning through early afternoon
hours across our northern counties when the front moves into the area,
then further southward in the afternoon through early evening hours
when the front moves through the area and off the coast. Overnight low
temperatures are unseasonably warm this morning (some 15 to 20 degrees
above normal) with readings in the mid 60s to near 70 inland and in
the mid 70s at the coast. Galveston`s record high temperature for the
day of 79 degrees (set in 1996) has a good chance of being broken. The
coolest temperatures of the day can be expected this evening as strong
surface high pressure begins building into the state from the north
and northwest. Breezy north winds will accompany the cool down this
evening and overnight, and wind advisories might be needed along the
coast and possibly some of our inland counties. Weekend temperatures
(coldest readings on Sunday morning) will have lows generally in the
30s and 40s (no freeze is anticipated) and highs in the 60s. Look for
a warm up early next week as the surface high moves off to the east
and winds come back around to the south and southeast. The area`s
next rain chances look to come around Tuesday/Wednesday with the
approach of the next cold front. The current forecast has a majority
of Southeast Texas on the cool and dry side for Thanksgiving. 42
MARINE...
Mariners should take the proper precautions today in advance of an
approaching cold front that...when it clears the coast tonight...will
generate advisory level to gale force wind and sea conditions in its
wake. This morning`s caution level winds/seas will gradually taper
off this afternoon as the waters fall just downstream of this cold
frontal boundary. Scattered showers with localized embedded
thunderstorms will likely ride in from the south through the day.
Early Saturday morning sustained winds and seas will near gale...with
frequent gusts to or above gale force over seas in excess of 9 feet
..and this may hoist short fuse Gale Warnings. At least caution
level conditions will persist through late Saturday...subsiding below
caution criteria Sunday morning. High pressure over the waters
early in the work week will provide light winds and seas Monday.
Return flow strengthens and shower/storm chances increase ahead of
the next western Texas front. The cold front is forecast to travel
off the coast sometime Wednesday. 31
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM.
Looks like the cooler air is on a line from just west of Texarkana to Tyler to Hearne to Round Rock. 54 in Denton and 60 in Waco. 71 in Hearne. The rain is along the same line, ending at Hearne.
Lines of rain look pretty weak. Little chance of 1-2 inches of rain.
Not saying it's a bust yet...but it's probably a bust. It should be interesting to see if convection deepens on the way to Houston. Streamer showers developing real time in the HOU metropolitan area.
The front moved through my place in Greenvine (about halfway between Brenham and Round Top) at 12:39. Preceded by about 10 minutes of moderate rain and a 5 minute lull. Very sharp temp and DEWP drop. Feels very nice!
BlueJay wrote:I can report scant sprinkles in The Woods. No significant temperature fluctuation yet.
Do I need to move my potted hibiscus indoors?
What event would you be trying to avoid by moving them inside? (I don't know squat about hibiscus.)
I'm trying to protect my tropical plants.
A quote from the internet states:
"Tropical hibiscus needs warm, steady temperatures to thrive. Temperature fluctuations, when extreme, can shock and kill the plant. Tropical hibiscus has the best bud growth between 65 and 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Buds stop growing around 55 F, and at 45 F, plants may suffer damage.'
Our very relunctant sprinkles ceased as quick as they began. Quite muggy outside. No significant temperature drop yet.
BlueJay wrote:I can report scant sprinkles in The Woods. No significant temperature fluctuation yet.
Do I need to move my potted hibiscus indoors?
What event would you be trying to avoid by moving them inside? (I don't know squat about hibiscus.)
I'm trying to protect my tropical plants.
A quote from the internet states:
"Tropical hibiscus needs warm, steady temperatures to thrive. Temperature fluctuations, when extreme, can shock and kill the plant. Tropical hibiscus has the best bud growth between 65 and 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Buds stop growing around 55 F, and at 45 F, plants may suffer damage.'
Our very relunctant sprinkles ceased as quick as they began. Quite muggy outside. No significant temperature drop yet.
Cooler air has made it to Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock. NW wind at 6. Temp is not dropping like a rock, yet, 4 degrees in 15 minutes. Rain clouds moving SE, along with some leaves. Light shower.
