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Too soon to ask about when to expect our first noticable front coming through? Anything on the horizon?

Can anyone speculate about how COLD our Fall/Winter may be in 2016 - 2017?

That is a pro met question...(Srain, Brooks, David, Wxman 57, Andrew). Care to comment...

Looks like next week will be the week Wednesday-Friday timeframe.

Last Winter forecast I saw was for a Cold and Wet Winter.


Thank God the Hellish heat is subsiding!

Well, we could turn this into a non-wagering bet as to when will the first morning when the official low at IAH is 60 degrees or less. Winner gets to be king of this thread and buys the first round of drinks.

I'll GUESS October 14.

oct 10th

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... php?lead=4

From the Climate Prediction Center for Dec, Jan, Feb as of August 18. Not exactly a cold and wet forecast and kind of a bummer, for those of us that want some COLD weather.

I have yet to master how to insert pics in to these posts, so the link is all I can provide.

First temp below 60 at IAH...my guess is Oct. 20

I'll play along...

September 27th

Drying Front to lower humidities/dewpoints...September 25th...the first real front...October 10

OK. I'll play...October 25

Seems like the pattern is setting up to be a slightly less terrible version of last year.....lots of rain, jet stream stays north, temps stay above normal pretty much all fall. Hope I'm wrong, but thats what it seems to be trending to.

I say slightly less terrible because I can't imagine having two Sep-March's with as little notable cool/cold weather as we had last year in a strong el nino. This year its at least neutral I believe.

GBinGrimes wrote:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... php?lead=4

From the Climate Prediction Center for Dec, Jan, Feb as of August 18. Not exactly a cold and wet forecast and kind of a bummer, for those of us that want some COLD weather.

I have yet to master how to insert pics in to these posts, so the link is all I can provide.

First temp below 60 at IAH...my guess is Oct. 20

Good. Winter should be warm, no need for cold in the coastal SE US; the cold ruins what would otherwise be an Eden-like climate. Houston, New Orleans, etc would be tropical without the winter cold spells.

Same goes for the dryness. If there is a time of year that we have to go weeks without rain, it should be winter.

Well, here's some good news from this afternoon's NWS discussion (at this time of year, grasping at straws is perfectly acceptable):
"As for the extended period, models are hinting at the possible arrival of a front next week, but the timing and southward extent are yet to be determined."

Nothing on the long range that would bring dew points or lows below 60°F in September.


October 7.

The Saturday 12z GFS run is encouraging but I'm not biting yet. If you go back and look at the previous six model runs or further, you'll see that 12z is by far the coolest yet. It shows 850 temps down to 10-12 degrees C while the Euro is much warmer with 850 temps in the 15-18 degree C range. If the GFS is correct, we'd most certainly see our first 50s with 2 meter dews forecast in the upper 30s and lower 40s throughout the region. That said, the Euro is in stark disagreement and all this nonsense is still 10 to 12 days out. Let's not wishcast too hard here, although I must admit I'm guilty. It's just so easy to do and I get excited. Let's just tame ourselves for a few more days guys!

The average date for our first front is September 20th. If this front pans out, we'll be about a week late which isn't terrible. It's not fall until we get into the 50s. Fingers crossed.

Climo is certainly on our side more and more with each passing day.

Latest ECMWF is trending towards the GFS solution of our first "real" front late this month. Still a lot of disparity between what the upper levels show but trend is starting to lean in that direction. As Blake said still ~240 hours .

Today's 12Z GFS gave up on next week's front. Euro has lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s through the 29th. First significant cold front may not be until the first week or two in October.

My September 27th guess sounds like it may be WAY OFF the mark.

Maybe ticka's guess, October 10th, will be the winner.
I'll stay tuned!

By the way, I don't mean to get to technical but are we all using IAH temperature readings for this competition?

OHHH I hate to be the bearer of bad news
Latest disco HGX

Models are continuing their recent trend of keeping next week`s
cold front west of our area resulting in no significant early Fall cooldown.
But with clouds and possible showers and thunderstorms in the forecast,
high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, and that
should feel better than today`s mid to upper 90s.

BlueJay wrote:My September 27th guess sounds like it may be WAY OFF the mark.

Maybe ticka's guess, October 10th, will be the winner.
I'll stay tuned!

By the way, I don't mean to get to technical but are we all using IAH temperature readings for this competition?

Why, yes, we are.

Ounce » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:16 pm

Well, we could turn this into a non-wagering bet as to when will the first morning when the official low at IAH is 60 degrees or less. Winner gets to be king of this thread and buys the first round of drinks.