September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2016

.AVIATION...
Other than some brief periods of IFR ceilings north of the city over the next couple of hours, VFR will prevail through the day. Drier air working in from the north, behind a near stationary front hugging the coast, will keep this afternoon's skies mainly clear/few cu with a light north breeze. Closer to the coast, as temperatures warm into the middle 80s, scattered showers may form in the vicinity of this stalled boundary. Clear skies and near calm winds will again increase the chance for lowered ceilings Monday morning, most likely over more rural coastal hubs. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Per water vapor satellite imagery, a drying air mass is filtering into Southeast Texas from the north behind yesterday's cold front. Out over the Gulf of Mexico along and ahead of the front, seeing early morning scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Mid/upper level low partly responsible for area rains the last couple of days is moving from right over our area to just off to our east, and this feature along with daytime heating could generate some daytime storms mainly across parts of our far southeast counties and adjacent coastal waters. A majority of Southeast Texas will be rain free both today and tomorrow as drier air and subsidence dominates the area. Moisture levels begin to deepen on Tuesday and remain on the high side for the remainder of the week and on into the weekend resulting in increasing mainly daytime
rain chances. 42

MARINE...
A stalled cold front along the coast will maintain a northeast to east breeze through the day. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop through the afternoon in the vicinity of this front. After a brief period of light onshore winds early Monday, winds will back more east during the day Monday and will generally remain easterly through Thursday. Lowering southern Gulf pressure will tighten the easterly gradient, producing near caution level easterlies late Monday and Tuesday nights. The long duration easterly fetch will draw up a slightly higher swell through mid week. Early work week average 1 to 2 foot seas will build to an average 3 to 4 feet by Wednesday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 91 74 91 / 10 10 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 88 72 89 74 89 / 20 20 20 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 79 85 / 30 30 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31

[srainhoutx]

No real weather worries today or tomorrow as drier air has pushed out into the Gulf. Tuesday and into next weekend, moisture does appear to make its way back inland as a return flow becomes established and a shortwave trough pushes across the Plains. No tropical troubles brewing at this time and very possibly we have seen the last of those kind of concerns for the SE Texas area as we are getting closer to the time when those Fall Cold Fronts will begin to head our way.

On a day when we remember those that lost their lives on September 11, 2001, I also want to wish Dr. Neil Frank a Happy Birthday on his 85th birthday. We wish you many more years of good health!

Also, 55 years ago today Hurricane Carla came calling to the Middle and Upper Texas Coast. So many memories and a perfect day to reflect on what is most important.

[Ounce]

Carla is one of my earliest memories. We were living in Beaumont and my dad was away on business. Having only lived in Texas for 1 year, my mom was telling us not to open the drapes. Of course, I had to look. Wet and a couple of limbs, as I looked down the street. She made it sound like it was coming right for us. I held on to that about Carla until I got out of college, when I found out it made landfall much further away than the Golden Triangle.

[Ptarmigan]

It has been 15 years ago today that the unthinkable happened on September 11, 2001. I remember the weather was very nice that day. Next thing, the world changed.

[Texaspirate11]

I remember dropping my son off to school, his first week in High School.
I then heard the news as I was going into the coffee shop next to the HS
It was evident that No one had heard the news. People were laughing, customers complaining to the
baristas
I wanted to watch the last bit of Americana before announcing the dreadful news.
I didn't have too
Slowly, people began to become aware.
No one cared anymore if the place ran out of blueberry muffins, there were now bigger issues
And America was never the same.

[Skyguy]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Per water vapor satellite imagery, a drying air mass is filtering into Southeast Texas from the north behind yesterday's cold front. Out over the Gulf of Mexico along and ahead of the front, seeing early morning scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Mid/upper level low partly responsible for area rains the last couple of days is moving from right over our area to just off to our east, and this feature along with daytime heating could generate some daytime storms mainly across parts of our far southeast counties and adjacent coastal waters. A majority of Southeast Texas will be rain free both today and tomorrow as drier air and subsidence dominates the area. Moisture levels begin to deepen on Tuesday and remain on the high side for the remainder of the week and on into the weekend resulting in increasing mainly daytime rain chances. 42

I don't like that, unome. It sounds like it puts Houston back in the danger zone of brief heavy rains. What are your thoughts on that?

[Katdaddy]

One more day with slightly drier air before moisture and rain chances arrive. The combination of deeper GOM moisture moving into SE TX and another cold front moving into TX bring increasing rain chances through next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Mostly dry today followed by an extended period of wet weather.

Wet pattern for most of summer 2016 continues into mid September. Weak cool front actually pushed off the coast overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning with slightly lower dewpoints over much of SE TX. Deep tropical moisture resides across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico roughly east of a line from about Sabine Pass to east of Brownsville. This moisture will begin to work back west toward the coast later today and into Tuesday. Expect mostly dry weather today except for along the coast where the seabreeze will begin to bring those higher Gulf moisture levels back onshore.

Rain chances increase on Tuesday (30%) and remain in the 30-50% range for much of the middle to end of the week with tropical moisture in place. Main focus will be the seabreeze front with storms developing near the coast in the late morning and progressing inland during the afternoon hours.

Best rain chances may come this weekend into early next week as the next upper level trough and weak front move into SE TX and potentially stall. Could see some pretty decent rainfall with this pattern setup and will need to keep an eye on expected totals for this weekend especially if the area experiences decent rainfall coverage and amounts during the mid to late week period.

[sau27]

I know we probably arent done with the 90's yet, but its nice to see forecast high temps below 90 for the next 7 days. We're ALMOST there.

[tireman4]

Yep..to add to your point..

It is still sweltering here in the Bayou City, but I see our highs are in the upper 80's, not lower to mid 90's. That is a start.

Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light northeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Light and variable wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Thursday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86.

[Katdaddy]

Daylight 8 year's ago this morning would bring scenes of complete devastation just E of Galveston, TX along the Bolivar Peninsula from Hurricane IKE. If IKE would have made landfall another 15-20 miles to the SW over W Galveston Island near Surfside; most of Galveston County, W and NW Galveston Bay, and the Houston Ship Channel would have had the devastating storm surge flooding.

Very heavy rains and gusty winds ongoing across Galveston County currently which will be moving into NE Brazoria County as a wet pattern arrives thanks to a weak GOM low that will continue to bring in tropical moisture each day through the weekend. So far a quick .75" of rain at the house.

[jasons2k]

I just put down some sod in a few places, so I really need the rain.

Seems like almost every day, the outflow/sea breeze outruns the convection just as it approaches, and then new convection forms after is passes me over. Grrrr. Maybe I will get something out of this pattern.

[Ounce]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

TXC039-157-132230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0201.160913T2126Z-160913T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 425 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
DAMON.

LAT...LON 2937 9566 2931 9561 2919 9583 2937 9584

$$

[Ounce]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

TXC201-132230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0202.160913T2130Z-160913T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 428 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES NEAR BINGLE
ROAD AND HIGHWAY 290. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...
SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...AFTON OAKS /
RIVER OAKS AREA...SPRING BRANCH WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SPRING
BRANCH NORTH...MEMORIAL PARK...GREATER HEIGHTS...NEAR NORTHSIDE
HOUSTON...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...SOUTHERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...
MIDTOWN HOUSTON AND UNIVERSITY PLACE.

LAT...LON 2970 9547 2980 9558 2990 9548 2980 9528

$$

[jasons2k]

And on que, fizzled as it approached Oak Ridge/Woodlands/Rayford corridor, like a clock man. Every time.

[Ounce]

And on que, fizzled as it approached Oak Ridge/Woodlands/Rayford corridor, like a clock man. Every time.

I'm sure it'll catch up, sometime.

[srainhoutx]

It's been raining for an hour in NW Harris County. I am sure the new winter hardy plants that were set today are happy.

[Ounce]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
458 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

TXC201-132300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0203.160913T2158Z-160913T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
458 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 456 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. RAINFALL IS APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND AND A HALF
INCH OF RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES AT HUFFMEISTER AND CYPRESS CREEK.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...NORTHEASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...CYPRESS AND
CARVERDALE.

LAT...LON 2990 9552 2983 9560 2996 9579 3007 9566

$$

[BlueJay]

Not even a "sprink" for us...

[Texaspirate11]

Interesting RAIN DATA tonight's disco HGX

.CLIMATE...
Going through some rainfall data tonight and much of the area has
had some impressive rainfall totals. 2016 rainfall at Cypress,
Houston Westbury, Houston Bush and Baytown have all exceeded their
normal annual (1981-2010) rainfall and it`s only mid September.
Since January 1st 2015, Baytown has received 167.75 inches of rain
which is 67.08 inches above normal over the roughly 21 month
period. This location is averaging about 8 inches of rain per
month over the last 21 months.