September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[BlueJay]

We are being teased again by some threatening looking clouds, thunder and a sprink or two.

[jasons2k]

Yep, same for me. The first line missed me to the east and north. The next one (with the warning) looks to miss me to the south and west, unless it can expand to the northeast. Problem is -- that's rain cooled air from earlier. And so it goes...

[mckinne63]

Same here in Stafford. I am now hearing some rumblings of thunder, but sounds like it is way in the distance.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
234 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 234 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SPLASHTOWN...OR NEAR SPRING...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...HUMBLE...TOMBALL...PINEHURST...SPRING...GREATER
GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...KINGWOOD...OAK RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA
VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH...WOODLOCH...BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...SPLASHTOWN...HOOKS AIRPORT...THE
WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU WOODS AND PORTER HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

[srainhoutx]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible this weekend.

92L (FL Straits) is looking better organized and has some development potential in the Gulf

An upper level low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico along with a westward moving tropical wave and a cold front approaching from N TX will combine over SE TX this weekend to generate periods of rainfall. Think the greatest chances will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the front moves southward and stalls along a College Station to Crockett line and outflow boundaries collide with the northward moving seabreeze front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible and with high moisture levels heavy to excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour would be likely under the stronger cells. We have seen such rainfall rates the last few afternoons with slow moving thunderstorms.

While grounds are not overly saturated….they certainly are not dry…with region wide KBDI values running in the 0-300 range indicating a fairly wet profile for early September. Street flooding will be the main concern, but any prolonged heavy rainfall over the same area could result in more significant rises on area watersheds.

92L:
Westward moving tropical wave now approaching the FL Keys and the FL Straits has become better organized this morning with both visible satellite images and Key West radar showing the formation of a broad surface circulation on the western side of deep convection. Upper level winds are currently not favorable for additional development…with that said…it will not take much more organization for a tropical depression to form. This feature will continue to move westward and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend where upper level winds may begin to become slightly more conducive for development. There is currently very little model support for this feature developing and the limited track guidance available shows a general westward track toward the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40% chance of development and this system should be monitored closely over the next several days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

[worrybug]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible this weekend.

92L (FL Straits) is looking better organized and has some development potential in the Gulf

An upper level low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico along with a westward moving tropical wave and a cold front approaching from N TX will combine over SE TX this weekend to generate periods of rainfall. Think the greatest chances will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the front moves southward and stalls along a College Station to Crockett line and outflow boundaries collide with the northward moving seabreeze front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible and with high moisture levels heavy to excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour would be likely under the stronger cells. We have seen such rainfall rates the last few afternoons with slow moving thunderstorms.

While grounds are not overly saturated….they certainly are not dry…with region wide KBDI values running in the 0-300 range indicating a fairly wet profile for early September. Street flooding will be the main concern, but any prolonged heavy rainfall over the same area could result in more significant rises on area watersheds.

92L:
Westward moving tropical wave now approaching the FL Keys and the FL Straits has become better organized this morning with both visible satellite images and Key West radar showing the formation of a broad surface circulation on the western side of deep convection. Upper level winds are currently not favorable for additional development…with that said…it will not take much more organization for a tropical depression to form. This feature will continue to move westward and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend where upper level winds may begin to become slightly more conducive for development. There is currently very little model support for this feature developing and the limited track guidance available shows a general westward track toward the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40% chance of development and this system should be monitored closely over the next several days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Are we looking at another Rita, srainhoutex?

[Texaspirate11]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible this weekend.

92L (FL Straits) is looking better organized and has some development potential in the Gulf

An upper level low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico along with a westward moving tropical wave and a cold front approaching from N TX will combine over SE TX this weekend to generate periods of rainfall. Think the greatest chances will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the front moves southward and stalls along a College Station to Crockett line and outflow boundaries collide with the northward moving seabreeze front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible and with high moisture levels heavy to excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour would be likely under the stronger cells. We have seen such rainfall rates the last few afternoons with slow moving thunderstorms.

While grounds are not overly saturated….they certainly are not dry…with region wide KBDI values running in the 0-300 range indicating a fairly wet profile for early September. Street flooding will be the main concern, but any prolonged heavy rainfall over the same area could result in more significant rises on area watersheds.

92L:
Westward moving tropical wave now approaching the FL Keys and the FL Straits has become better organized this morning with both visible satellite images and Key West radar showing the formation of a broad surface circulation on the western side of deep convection. Upper level winds are currently not favorable for additional development…with that said…it will not take much more organization for a tropical depression to form. This feature will continue to move westward and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend where upper level winds may begin to become slightly more conducive for development. There is currently very little model support for this feature developing and the limited track guidance available shows a general westward track toward the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40% chance of development and this system should be monitored closely over the next several days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Are we looking at another Rita, srainhoutex?

NO. Rita was already well formed when getting into the Gulf.
This has a 30% chance (tonight) of formation. Far from Rita.

[ticka1]

Friday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall possible this weekend.

92L (FL Straits) is looking better organized and has some development potential in the Gulf

An upper level low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico along with a westward moving tropical wave and a cold front approaching from N TX will combine over SE TX this weekend to generate periods of rainfall. Think the greatest chances will be Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the front moves southward and stalls along a College Station to Crockett line and outflow boundaries collide with the northward moving seabreeze front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible and with high moisture levels heavy to excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour would be likely under the stronger cells. We have seen such rainfall rates the last few afternoons with slow moving thunderstorms.

While grounds are not overly saturated….they certainly are not dry…with region wide KBDI values running in the 0-300 range indicating a fairly wet profile for early September. Street flooding will be the main concern, but any prolonged heavy rainfall over the same area could result in more significant rises on area watersheds.

92L:
Westward moving tropical wave now approaching the FL Keys and the FL Straits has become better organized this morning with both visible satellite images and Key West radar showing the formation of a broad surface circulation on the western side of deep convection. Upper level winds are currently not favorable for additional development…with that said…it will not take much more organization for a tropical depression to form. This feature will continue to move westward and enter the SE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend where upper level winds may begin to become slightly more conducive for development. There is currently very little model support for this feature developing and the limited track guidance available shows a general westward track toward the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40% chance of development and this system should be monitored closely over the next several days as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

Are we looking at another Rita, srainhoutex?

NO. Rita was already well formed when getting into the Gulf.
This has a 30% chance (tonight) of formation. Far from Rita.

listen to texaspirate she knows her tropical weather.

[Skyguy]

Are we looking at another Rita, srainhoutex?

NO. Rita was already well formed when getting into the Gulf.
This has a 30% chance (tonight) of formation. Far from Rita.[/quote]

listen to texaspirate she knows her tropical weather.[/quote]


Good answer for worrybug, guys. But, for my part, I'm still curious about 92L making landfall in Houston/Galveston. What effects, if any, on our sensible forecast will it have?

[cisa]

Alicia was the tail of a front wasn't it? I could be wrong on that. She was a GOM home grown storm though right?

[Skyguy]

Alicia was the tail of a front wasn't it? I could be wrong on that. She was a GOM home grown storm though right?

Wish you hadn't mentioned Alicia, cisa. I do have concerns about a similar scenario occurring with this storm. Right now, the models send it to Mexico, but I hesitate to put any real trust in that scenario, personally.

And, yes, Alicia was the tail end of a front. And she was a GOM home grown storm.

[cisa]

At least for now I guess we're good. Something to watch though. You can never tell around this time of year.

[Skyguy]

At least for now I guess we're good. Something to watch though. You can never tell around this time of year.

Well, not really. With a stalled front in close to Houston and incoming gulf moisture, it's a recipe for trouble, serious trouble.

[Katdaddy]

The radar is active along the coast this morning. The combination of a weak front and associated outflow boundary approaching from NTX and mid/upper level low across SE TX will lead to showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday. As we have seen in previous days, localized heavy rains will be possible.

Invest 92L remains a swirl with no convection over the center this morning. The NHC has dropped tropical development down to 10% thanks to unfavorable conditions in SE GOM however this tropical disturbance will be watched closely until it moves inland.

[DoctorMu]

An outflow boundary ahead of the front has arrived in CLL. Refreshments before gametime.

[mckinne63]

Dark skies and windy here in Stafford, but not a drop of rain yet. Looking at radar, it is all around us. Like the cooler temps.

[DoctorMu]

Pleasant behind the front with lower temps, north breeze 10-15 mph, and less sticky dew point.

[unome]

crazy lightning show, no rain here though

http://atmo.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/network_loop.html

[Skyguy]

crazy lightning show, no rain here though

http://atmo.tamu.edu/ciams/lma/network_loop.html

Pay attention, folks. If that trend continues, 92L could be a player in the Gulf, one that could add to our rain woes.

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/7 ... 6691702784

NWS Houston ‏@NWSHouston
Much of Southeast Texas should stay dry today. #txwx #houwx #bcswx