September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[unome]

Chamber of Commerce weather, coming up !

* http://www.weather.gov/hgx/

* love the new webpages

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281516
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1016 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis has weak high pressure over W Texas with surface
low over the Midwest. Cold front was pushing through the C Plains.
Temperatures at 15Z ranged from low 70s inland to upper 70s along
the coast. Max temperatures in the mid/upper 80s look on track but
updated T/Td trends for the next 3-6hrs. Overall conditions should
be calm and clear for the next 24 hours. Cold front does push
through tomorrow morning but no convection expected with it.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High pressure over west Texas will bring generally clear skies to
Southeast Texas through Thursday morning. There will some cirrus
from time to time but nothing of much consequence. Winds will be
around 6 knots or less through 12z. A weak cold front will cross
the region early Thursday and wind speeds will increase in the
wake of the boundary Thursday morning. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A welcome quiet and dry fall morning is underway for Southeast
Texas, with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low
70s. Early morning surface analysis showed a remnant frontal
boundary stretching from the northwest Gulf towards Mississippi,
with a coastal trough draped from the Upper Texas coastal waters
south towards the Tamaulipas coastline. Farther north, another
cold front was located across Nebraska and into the Great Lakes.
Water vapor imagery showed a cutoff low drifting north into
California/Arizona with west/northwest flow aloft ahead of this
feature drawing mid and upper level Pacific moisture across Texas.
Also noted was another closed low over the Great Lakes with a
compact disturbance rotating south along the British Columbia
coast.

Drier air will continue to filter into the region today, allowing
for a cool start this morning but enabling temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Expect quiet weather to
continue across the region today with little more than a few
passing mid/high clouds as Pacific moisture continues to stream
overhead, but an isolated shower (and maybe even a thuderstorm)
will be possible across the offshore waters this morning with weak
convergence along the coastal trough. As the upper low over the
Great Lakes wobbles south today, it will send the cold front over
the Central Plains surging towards Southeast Texas and reach the
region by late tonight. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to
continue overnight with lows ranging from the upper 50s and mid
60s inland to upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

Little more is expected with the front as it clears the region on
Thursday than increasing northerly winds 10-15 MPH (with some
stronger gusts during the afternoon) and a reinforcing shot of dry
air. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to climb into the 80s. Dry
and clear conditions overnight Thursday will encourage enough
radiational cooling for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s in
many locations north of Interstate 10 (although urban heat island
effects may keep the Houston metro slightly warmer in the low to
mid 60s). Regardless, Friday morning will be one of the coolest
mornings we`ve seen since early May... and yes, some may need a
jacket as they head to work or school.

Upper ridging over Texas begins to flatten on Friday as the low
over California/Arizona becomes and open wave and lifts northeast,
with dry and pleasant conditions continuing through the weekend as
the remains closed off from Gulf moisture. It will be a fantastic
weekend for outdoor activites with cool mornings (lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s) and mild afternoons (highs in the mid 80s). Dry
weather is expected to continue into the beginning of next week,
but surface high pressure sliding east of the region and onshore
flow resuming may allow for enough moisture to move back into
Southeast Texas for low diurnally driven rain chances to return to
the forecast Tuesday.

The low off the British Columbia coast this morning is expected
to translate east over the next several days, reaching the West
Coast by the end of the weekend and the Great Plains by the middle
of next week. As this storm system moves across the country, it
may send another cold front across Southeast Texas (and possibly
bring widespread rain chances back to the region) mid to late next
week.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over west Texas will move slowly east and weaken
tonight. Low pressure over the northern plains will move southeast
and an associated cold front will push south Wednesday night. The
cold front will cross the coastal waters early Thursday. North
winds will gradually increase on Thursday and Thursday night in
the wake of the front. High pressure will build into Texas on
Friday behind the front and winds will begin to relax as the
gradient weakens. The high will move east on Sunday and onshore
winds will return to the coastal waters. Onshore winds will
strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 63 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 88 66 87 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 76 87 71 80 / 10 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...39
Long Term...08

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful calm morning across SE TX with the next front currently over NTX. The front will arrive later this afternoon with more beautiful weather through the weekend.

From this morning's HOU-GAL AFD:
Quiet and pleasant weather is expected to continue across the
region Friday into the weekend, as surface high pressure and drier
air move into the region behind today`s front. Clear skies and
light winds overnight will result in excellent radiational
cooling, allowing temperatures for areas north of Highway 59 to
fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday morning
still appear to be some of the coolest mornings the region has
experienced since early May.

[DoctorMu]

Tonight's the night?

59°F now predicted for tomorrow' am's low at IAH.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291721
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front off the coast with northerly winds
behind it. Expect VFR CIGS next 24-30hrs with winds decoupling
overnight and remaining light on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Overall the forecast looks on track. Surface analysis at 15Z has
surface front across Galveston Bay to Angleton to Victoria.
Dewpoints have dropped into the low 60s/and upper 50s already and
should mix well into the 50s later this afternoon. Winds will
average about 10 knots from the north during the day with a few
gusts. High pressure will continue to build thorugh the plains
tonight and with clear skies/light winds, low temperatures should
drop into the 50s for much of the area.

Overpeck

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Calm and mild conditions have settled in across Southeast Texas
early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. 3 AM CDT
surface analysis showed this frontal boundary stretching along a
Midland-Waco-Shreveport line, and this feature will continue to
move south across the region through the remainder of the morning
hours. Cold air advection behind this boundary will gradually
overspread the region throughout the day, resulting in high
temperatures ranging from near 80 degrees across parts of the
Brazos Valley and Piney Woods regions to upper 80s south of
Interstate 10. Limited available moisture will make frontal
passage today a dry one for Southeast Texas, but weak upglide
behind the front over the offshore waters may result in an
isolated shower or two. Otherwise, expect northerly winds to
increase into the 10-15 MPH range behind the front with slightly
stronger gusts possible during the afternoon and early evening.

Quiet and pleasant weather is expected to continue across the
region Friday into the weekend, as surface high pressure and drier
air move into the region behind today`s front. Clear skies and
light winds overnight will result in excellent radiational
cooling, allowing temperatures for areas north of Highway 59 to
fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday and Saturday morning
still appear to be some of the coolest mornings the region has
experienced since early May. Afternoon temperatures will generally
rise into the low to mid 80s each afternoon through the weekend,
but some locations in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods regions may
not get out of the upper 70s on Friday afternoon.

By the end of the weekend/beginning of next week, shortwave
ridging builds back over Texas as a closed low now off the Pacific
Northwest swings onto the West Coast. Ridging in advance of this
system will allow for a continuation of dry weather for the region
into the beginning of next week, but result in afternoon
temperatures gradually warming back into the mid to upper 80s.
Surface winds are expected to gradually veer onshore Monday into
Tuesday and may see some Gulf moisture creep its way back into the
region by the middle of next week (which will be most noticeably
felt by warmer overnight temperatures). Upper ridging gets shunted
east of the region by mid-week as the upper level system
translates east across the Rocky Mountains, with the next cold
front looking to reach the region late in the work week. While
medium range guidance continues to offer timing and location
differences with this upper system and associated front, region-
wide rain chances are forecast to increase Wednesday/Thursday in
response.

Huffman

MARINE...
Low pressure over the Ohio valley northern plains will move east
and drag a cold front across SE TX this morning. The front will
cross the coastal waters early this morning and winds will become
north and gradually increase in speed. The pressure gradient will
tighten significantly tonight as cooler air (relative to the the
water temp) and speeds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots
with higher gusts. Mariners in small craft should exercise caution
tonight. High pressure will build into Texas on Friday behind the
front and winds will begin to relax as the gradient weakens. The
high will move east on Sunday night and onshore winds will return
to the coastal waters on Monday. Onshore winds will strengthen and
likely persist for the first half of next week. Another cold front
will cross the coastal waters next Thursday. 43

TROPICAL...
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to drift west into the eastern
Caribbean early this morning and is forecast to reach the central
Caribbean by Friday. Track guidance remains in good agreement
that Matthew will turn to the north late this weekend as an upper
trough reamplifies over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving
towards Cuba/Hispaniola and continuing north into the middle of
next week. Matthew is not currently forecast to enter the Gulf of
Mexico and no impacts are anticipated for Southeast Texas.

Huffman

[Andrew]

Looks like drier air is filtering in and mixing is currently occurring so dewpoints are now in the upper 50s. Really need to see dewpoints in the low 50s for 59 degree low to have any chance on Saturday morning. Satellite shows some high cirrus trying to filter southward and models indicate that a high cloud deck could occur later tonight. It will probably be close to that 60/59 degree mark Saturday morning.

Edit to clarify that Saturday is our best chance. Updated the Skew-T.

[Katdaddy]

A cool Fall morning across SE TX with temps in the 50s across inland areas and 60s along the coast. The nice weather will continue through the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The 2015-16 water year ends today and parts of SE TX received between 80 and 100 inches of rain. Baytown leads the way with 90.37 inches of rain over the last 12 months with Liberty right behind at 90.29 inches of rain. Other notable totals include 77.33 inches at Houston, 69.21 inches at Houston Hobby Airport, 61.48 inches at Galveston and 61.06 inches at College Station.