September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[stormlover]

I am telling you, I wouldn't count this out of being a depression before landfall

[srainhoutx]

I am telling you, I wouldn't count this out of being a depression before landfall

I see no indications via buoy data of anything close to a depression forming, particularly with winds below 20kts across the NW Gulf. Looks like an elongated trough axis with a slight area of lower pressure S of Freeport of about 29.87 and holding steady. Just an increase in moisture and squally rainstorms along the Coastal Waters at this time.

[tireman4]

And just like Srain stated ( again, thank you for your forecasts)...HGX alludes to the same thing..

EDIT: HGX says not front for us...but the Euro is teasing us in the 10 day period. We shall see.

FXUS64 KHGX 160929
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Precip coverage has been gradually increasing offshore in
association with a surface trof situated off the Tx coast. It will
continue its slow wwd progression and set up a convergent zone
along the coast today. This boundary should serve as a focus for
periods of shra/tstms throughout the day...esp as daytime heating
works its magic. There is a potential for some localized heavy
rainfall wherever stronger clusters set up near the sfc
trough/boundary considering that the overall steering flow is
fairly weak and available moisture will be well above normal (pw`s
2-2.3"). Majority of rain/storms should taper off by early evening
w/ the loss of heating - though there could be a couple lingering
cells around for the start of some of the high school football
games.

Coastal trof should wash out on Saturday...but there should still
be ample moisture for some scattered morning precip near the coast
that`ll spread inland during the daylight hours w/ heating.

Mid level ridge then starts building overhead on Sunday and
persists into the mid-late week time period. Look for rain
chances to start tapering off (but not completely shutdown) and
high temps to revert back to near August normals unfortunately. No
real good signals as to when our first decent fall front will
arrive. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Generally moderate east winds will prevail today with seas of 2 to 4
feet. However, the approach and passage of a trof/wave axis from the
NW Gulf into our marine areas is expected to produce widespread show-
ers and thunderstorms today and tonight. This unsettled weather will
help to increase winds/seas in and near the stronger storms. As this
system moves inland...winds should eventually veer to the SE through
the weekend. Looking ahead, light onshore winds and low seas will be
on tap for early next week. The slightly above normal tide levels of
late should also follow a gradual downward trend. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting a more active day today as deep Gulf moisture moves inland
in conjunction with a trof/wave axis. With low convective temps...we
will likely see widespread TSRAs starting around mid/late morning at
the coast...then spreading inland through the afternoon. Our current
TEMPO groups look to be on track. Otherwise VFR conditions to return
tonight as the activity dissipates. A repeat of this general pattern
is forecast for tomorrow as well. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 94 76 94 / 20 20 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 91 76 91 76 93 / 50 20 50 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 81 90 / 50 50 50 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Looking at radar loops and surface winds, seems the center is very close to Galveston. I have not had time to look at much this morning other than check radar/satellite but I wonder if we need to be concerned about core rains over the weekend.

[tireman4]

More on the weather from HGX:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 161432
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
932 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Low pressure in the Gulf has resulted in quite a bit of convection
well offshore, but also on the edge of the 60 mile marine zones.
However, RAP analysis shows a wind field that would be more likely
to drag the main shield of convection northeastward towards
southwest Louisiana. As such, nudged PoPs downward a little
farther inland in order to keep the focus on the immediate coast
and up the eastern edge of our area, but the broad picture from
the previous discussion is still a good one. In association with
this low, precipitable water is moving back towards and over 2
inches, so isolated to scattered showers and storms should still
be expected today. Otherwise, nudged temps into line with
observations, but should still be on track to reach to around and
a little above 90 degrees across the area. Heat indices should
also be a touch higher today, reaching to around the century mark.

Luchs

[Rip76]

So basically the storms are getting blown over to La.

[Ounce]

So basically the storms are getting blown over to La.

Looks that way. We get the clean side, except for the popcorn showers during afternoon heating. I'll gladly take that situation!

[DoctorMu]

This thing looks like a bust.

Scattered to isolated showers in CLL for the next couple of days, but we could be high and dry and hot for the week.


We're not far away from brown patch season. I shut down the sprinkler system yesterday. Don't make me turn this car around!

[jasons2k]

Everything NW of 59 just fell apart. I'm beginning to think as well it may be a huge bust, as if it wasn't already...

[Stormrider]

Overcast in Galveston. Looks like some showers offshore. Otherwise, nary a drop on my end.

Invest 92, "The Zombie Invest" or "The Swirling Dead". Hmm...Maybe the SyFy Channel would be interested...

[mckinne63]

It was getting a bit dark and cloudy here in Stafford about 15 minutes ago, those clouds are now all gone and sun is out again. Was sure hoping for some rain.

[jasons2k]

Geez. Talk about a bust. Not a drop here all week and looks like we'll be dry for another week too:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today will probably end up being fairly similar to yday regarding
precip coverage. SE Tx will generally remain on the subsident side
of mid level trof/shear axis situated off the La coast. Though
we`ll see slightly lower pw`s today as well, still expect to see
some iso/sct development with daytime heating - more probable
closer to the coast in association w/ a weak seabreeze.

Tail end of upper trof moving across the cntl U.S. will pass by on
Sunday and may bring some sct late aftn/evng precip across NE/E
parts of the region on Sunday. Otherwise...ridge starts building
overhead going into the early & mid parts of next week. Daytime highs
will warm into the mid 90s, but the hope is that drier air will
backdoor into the region as many models suggest & at least limit
the higher humidities.

Airmass will gradually modify & rain chances start re-entering the
picture going into next weekend as ridges move further east and lee
side trough eventually digs into Tx.

[ticka1]

Yep same here. No rain all week.

[srainhoutx]

There may be some hope on the horizon for those looking for some relief from the dry and warm weather. The overnight ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement that a lee side trough may develop and in late September that typically suggests cooler and possibly unsettled weather may move into our Region. We may need to monitor the Eastern Pacific as well for any tropical moisture heading NE across the Baja Peninsula/Desert SW as those tropical disturbances tend to start turning NE as a Fall like flow across the Pacific recurves systems toward Mexico. Time will you tell, but the days are getting shorter and the squirrels are in a feeding frenzy mode around my house as well as hummingbirds arriving in greater numbers by the day and draining the feeder rather quickly as they continue their migration S. Perhaps it won't be too much longer when the annual arrival of Canadian Geese across the Katy Prairie begins.

[DoctorMu]

There may be some hope on the horizon for those looking for some relief from the dry and warm weather. The overnight ensemble guidance is in rather good agreement that a lee side trough may develop and in late September that typically suggests cooler and possibly unsettled weather may move into our Region. We may need to monitor the Eastern Pacific as well for any tropical moisture heading NE across the Baja Peninsula/Desert SW as those tropical disturbances tend to start turning NE as a Fall like flow across the Pacific recurves systems toward Mexico. Time will you tell, but the days are getting shorter and the squirrels are in a feeding frenzy mode around my house as well as hummingbirds arriving in greater numbers by the day and draining the feeder rather quickly as they continue their migration S. Perhaps it won't be too much longer when the annual arrival of Canadian Geese across the Katy Prairie begins.

I noticed that the grackles are making a pit stop earlier this year in College Station. Nothing as magnificent as Canadian Geese. Hopefully, it portends a nice cold front by the end of the month. Am ready for transition to Fall.

[jasons2k]

Almost nothing on the radar. Time to crank sprinklers. Re-reading this email from Monday is almost depressing:

Best rain chances may come this weekend into early next week as the next upper level trough and weak front move into SE TX and potentially stall. Could see some pretty decent rainfall with this pattern setup and will need to keep an eye on expected totals for this weekend especially if the area experiences decent rainfall coverage and amounts during the mid to late week period.

[Ounce]

Almost nothing on the radar. Time to crank sprinklers. Re-reading this email from Monday is almost depressing:

Best rain chances may come this weekend into early next week as the next upper level trough and weak front move into SE TX and potentially stall. Could see some pretty decent rainfall with this pattern setup and will need to keep an eye on expected totals for this weekend especially if the area experiences decent rainfall coverage and amounts during the mid to late week period.

There's a blob moving west along the Katy Freeway. Katy fwy and Chimney Rock received 0.2" in about 15 minutes.

[ticka1]

looks like the heat is herme to stay. Need a break with some cooler weather. No measureable rainfall this past week - leaves are starting to drop off the trees here at the house.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, another flash drought is upon us, at least in my little dome of desert, and the trees are now quickly dropping leaves. I was hoping for a beautiful fall this year. I'm worried about the long term outlook up here in the woods, as the trees never pulled completely out of stress. This was THE drought-buster year for a lot of places - all those crazy rainfall totals and records at Baytown, Westbury, Hobby, etc. - we didn't see anything like that up here in Montgomery County. I'm afraid we missed our chance.

[srainhoutx]

With building heights across Texas this week, expecting mostly hot and dry weather possibly flirting with Heat Advisory criteria at least through Friday. The afternoon computer models suggest a deepening trough out West may advance East lee of the Continental Divided into the Plains next weekend breaking down the Upper Ridge over Texas and shifting it East. Lowering heights and possibly a disturbance moving out of South Texas may increase our rain chances next weekend, but that is beyond the period when we can really trust the guidance. Meanwhile stay hydrated this week. It's going to be a hot one out there.