Tracking the Tropics:

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Matthew devastates Haiti…battering eastern Cuba…takes aim at the Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is issued from Golden Beach FL to the Brevard/Volusia County line. This watch will likely need to be extended northward later this evening or early Thursday.

Dangerous hurricane event increasingly likely for FL and the SE US coast. Preparations for the impact of a major hurricane should be underway along the highly populated E FL coast.

Discussion:

Matthew struck SW Haiti this morning and is currently making landfall over eastern Cuba with sustained winds of 140mph. The hurricane has maintained a well defined eye per Guantanamo Bay radar today and the disruption of the inner core over Haiti was minimal. Matthew is starting to expand in size likely due to land interaction and an eyewall replacement cycle that completed just prior to landfall this morning. Hurricane force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds 185 miles. The latest pressure by the USAF aircraft was 949mb

Track:

Track guidance has shift a little more to the west today and the threat of Matthew now striking a large portion of the east FL coast is real. Both the GFDL, ECMWF, and UKMET models now show a direct hit of the core of Matthew into the heavily populated barrier island that runs along much of the FL east coast from near West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville. The official NHC track has been shifted very close to the FL east coast and is close enough that the damaging core of Matthew may impact much of the coast. It should be clearly noted that since the hurricane will be moving nearly along or just offshore of the coast that a small deviation of only 10-15 miles could mean the difference between major hurricane conditions or weak hurricane conditions.

Matthew will then turn N to NNE as the high pressure that will induce the NW turn in the Bahamas shifts eastward and a trough approaches the hurricane from the NW. This track brings Matthew right along or just offshore of the entire SE US coast from EC FL to the NC Outer Banks with a possible landfall over SC/NC this weekend. The confidence in the track beyond Thursday evening is somewhat poor as the hurricane may in fact strike the FL coast and move slightly more westward than currently forecast…or more in line with the ECMWF model which would result in changes to the downstream track. Additionally some of the model guidance is showing a hard right (eastward) turn of the hurricane after striking or brushing FL which might spare the Carolinas…it is too soon to tell how close Matthew may come to that portion of the coast.

Intensity:

Matthew will likely weakening some tonight as the circulation interacts with Cuba and Haiti…but conditions are very favorable for intensification over the Bahamas and it is likely that the entire Bahamas island chain will feel the force of a major hurricane over the next 24-36 hours. Matthew if forecast to remain a major category 3 or higher hurricane as far north as the latitude of Jacksonville, FL with some weakening possible during the later period. Should Matthew directly strike the FL east coast then significant changes would be required at the longer ranges to show much more weakening than forecasted currently.

Impacts:

Matthew poses a potentially significant threat to the FL east coast and much of the SE US coast including GA and SC where strong hurricane hits are rare due to the concave shape of the coast….this is especially true around the Jacksonville, FL area. At this time hurricane conditions with sustained winds above 75mph are likely in the hurricane watch area and should Matthew shift slightly more to the west sustained winds of 100-115mph would rake the FL east from West Palm Beach northward to near Jacksonville including Cape Canaveral.

Storm surge flooding of 10-15 ft above the ground is likely across nearly all of the Bahamas Islands…which will be devastating. Storm surge flooding of 3-5 feet above ground level is possible along the FL east coast barrier island from West Palm Beach northward along with 10-15 foot waves which will likely breach and overtop dune protection and result in considerable damage to coastal structures.

FL Storm Surge Inundation Map from Matthew NHC Advisory # 27:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the FL east coast from north of West Palm Beach to north of Cape Canaveral.


Impacts are likely northward along the SE US coast especially in the SC/NC area…but it is too early to know the specifics.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Matthew begins his assault on the Bahamas

Hurricane Warnings are issued for the FL east coast from N of Golden Beach to Sabastian Inlet including West Palm Beach and the Space Coast

Hurricane Watch is extended N for the FL E coast from Sebastian Inlet to the Florida/Georgia border including Jacksonville and Orlando

Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida Keys to Florida Bay including Miami-Dade.

Preparations for the landfall of a major hurricane should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Discussion:
Matthew has moved off the northern coast of eastern Cuba this morning and into the southern Bahamas. Latest USAF mission found a central pressure of 962mb and flight level winds around 118kts indicating the high mountains of eastern Cuba were able to disrupt the inner core of the hurricane. Maximum sustained winds have been reduced to 125mph making Matthew a strong category 3 hurricane. Additionally, IR images now longer show a defined eye and deep convection until recently was moderate. Recent satellite trends are starting to show the formation of deep thunderstorms over the NW/W portion of the center of circulation and an eye feature is starting to return.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will overspread much of the Bahamas today and approach SE FL on Thursday.

Track:
Matthew is either going to brush very close to the eastern FL coast or make a direct landfall on Friday. Forecast models overnight remain similar in their track of Matthew turning NW today and crossing the Bahamas and then moving nearly parallel to the entire eastern coast of FL Friday into Saturday. Several of the models and ensemble members have the center actually crossing the coast or moving right along the beaches or just a few tens of miles offshore…all of which will result in the core of Matthew impacting a large section of the FL east coast. While it is certainly possible that Matthew remains just offshore…the hurricane force wind radius on the western side of the storm is likely to bring hurricane conditions to the coast. Residents in the hurricane watch and warning area should be preparing for a direct impact of the core of this hurricane.

The extended portion of the forecast track is showing some significant changes overnight. The trough over the Midwest currently was expected to be strong enough to capture Matthew and bring the hurricane N and NNE into the Carolinas coast and then NE off the NE US coast early next week. The latest global runs now show the trough not being able to capture Matthew and instead leave the hurricane behind to perform a large loop over the Atlantic off the SE US coast and a possible second threat/landfall to the Bahamas or FL. This latest change in the track reasoning may end up sparing a direct landfall over NC, but also means portions of the SE US coast will still be dealing with Matthew next week as its path is effectively blocked by building high pressure over the NE US behind the trough

Needless to say the forecast track beyond early Saturday morning is of low confidence and it is difficult at this time to determine what impacts Matthew will have on the coast of SC and NC.

Intensity:
Conditions over the Bahamas look favorable for intensification of Matthew and the current NHC forecast brings the hurricane to 130mph in 24 hours. It is possible that Matthew could be stronger than currently indicated given low shear and very warm waters and the history of hurricanes intensifying in the Bahamas. Matthew will approach the FL east coast as a major hurricane cat 3 or 4 and it is now very likely that the core of damaging winds with Matthew will impact the highly populated hurricane warning area.

Toward the day 3-5 period upper level winds will become increasingly stronger out of the SW and likely begin to result in some weakening…but Matthew will remain a hurricane through the next 5 days.

Impacts:
Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are likely over SE/E FL starting Thursday from the FL Keys northward to the Space coast. Damaging hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday from West Palm Beach northward to Jacksonville. Sustained winds of 80-100mph will be possible along the coast and if Matthew tracks only 10-20 miles further west sustained winds of 115-125mph will be possible. Significant to extensive damage is likely if the core of Matthew intersects the coast especially near Cape Canaveral.

Much of the eastern shore of FL is lined with a barrier island which has been highly developed in the last many years…but acts as a natural hurricane defense to the mainland. Storm surge and wave action will be directed into this barrier island with current storm surge inundation above ground level of 3-5 feet in the hurricane warning area with wave action of 10-15 feet. This will result in extensive damage to the Atlantic facing beaches, overtopping and breaching of dunes, and the likely undermining of beach front structures to the point of collapse. The coastal shelf off the FL east coast is fairly deep which results in generally lower storm surges compared to portions of the Gulf coast…however the concave shape of the NE FL and GA coast will result in significant storm surge flooding in the Jacksonville and potentially the Savannah areas even if Matthew remains off the coast

Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches will be likely along the coast of FL and GA possibly into SC.

Actions:
Mandatory evacuations have been ordered along portions of the FL east coast overnight and this morning…mainly for the barrier islands and the inlet areas which connect the Atlantic to the FL mainland.

The state of SC will begin a mandatory evacuation of the entire SC coast effective at 300pm today including Charleston and Myrtle Beach. SC DOT will activate freeway lane reversal (contraflow) and all outbound major freeways lanes

[sau27]

I feel kind of dumb for asking this but I always think about it with these east coast storms. Quite often it seems like storms along the east coast skirt the coastline without fully moving ashore and inland. Is there a geographic related reason for this or is it just coincidence with timing of steering features?

[tireman4]

That is a pro met question...( Andrew, Srain, Wxman57, Brooks, David, Blake)...I have no idea..

[srainhoutx]

I feel kind of dumb for asking this but I always think about it with these east coast storms. Quite often it seems like storms along the east coast skirt the coastline without fully moving ashore and inland. Is there a geographic related reason for this or is it just coincidence with timing of steering features?

Typically in October the Westerlies kick in across the Continent and troughs pick up the storms and move them on East of the Eastern Seaboard. Unfortunately the current trough across Southern Canada/Northern Plains is not as strong as what was thought this past weekend and will likely steer Matthew precariously close to the Florida Peninsula. That said Global Hawk High Altitude Mission has been sampling the Gulf early this morning and the NOAA G-V is sampling the Eastern Gulf now enroute to sample ahead and around Matthew. Hopefully the additional data will provide some clarity in the upcoming model solutions about the future track of Matthew and what potential impacts it could have for the East Coast and the I-95 Corridor.



Mimic shows that Matthew has made a turn to the NW and is regaining its inner core as it moves away from Eastern Cuba.

[texoz]

Hope people on east coast of FL are preparing like they will get hit with a major cane because it's way too close to call at this point. Even if no direct hit, it's going to be rough.

[DoctorMu]

Hope people on east coast of FL are preparing like they will get hit with a major cane because it's way too close to call at this point. Even if no direct hit, it's going to be rough.

West Palm Beach to Melbourne and above need to get pretty serious as Matthew bears left.

[tireman4]

I have kin folks in Ft. Lauderdale and vicinities around. They are ready....

[jasons2k]

I have to say I really enjoyed Avila's discussion this afternoon. Laying-out the key points as a list, in plain language, is a great way to communicate the message. Kudos to the NHC! :

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago
indicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much,
and the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane
Hunter plane will be in the eye soon. The environment continues to
be favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the
the east coast of Florida during the next day or so. After that
time, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in
gradual weakening of the hurricane.

Satellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the
northwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around
this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the
northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in
forward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward,
allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north
Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models
diverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward
toward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good
distance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water
in the middle of these two model solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please
consult statements from the meteorological service and other
government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and
Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South
Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if
the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine
what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are
likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

[Cromagnum]

This loop that the models are predicting 4-5 days out has my eyebrow raised. Is there any chance this hits Florida a 2nd time and plows on through into the gulf?

I mean, what the heck is up with this model track? Miami is in for double trouble

Http://i.giphy.com/l3vRn3lCYqBYhzwEo.gif

[TexasBreeze]

It is producing deep cold convection and rounding out and about to break out another pinhole eye.
In the models it is a much weaker system on 2nd approach after the loop.

[Andrew]

recon found ~940mb overnight which was close to to a 10-15mb drop from earlier. I think we will flirt with a cat 5 before it makes landfalls.

[srainhoutx]

My friend Kelly from Seabrook (a reservist with the 53rd) is flying the current teal 75 mission sampling Matthew right now. Once they return, I should get some excellent radar screen grabs from eyewall penetrations. I will try to upload those later today.

[unome]

My friend Kelly from Seabrook (a reservist with the 53rd) is flying the current teal 75 mission sampling Matthew right now. Once they return, I should get some excellent radar screen grabs from eyewall penetrations. I will try to upload those later today.

here's some, radar & current recon/sat with vortex info - compliments of Tropical Atlantic.com & HurricaneCity.com

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... r&latest=1

see more options: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Historic hurricane event for Florida!

Matthew…a most powerful hurricane…will bring devastating damage to much of the FL east coast, SE GA and SC

Preparations to protect life and property must be completed now in the hurricane warning area…failure to evacuate barrier islands and low lying areas under evacuation orders will result in almost certain death.

Discussion:
A hurricane warning is in effect from Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA including West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, Cape Canaveral, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, and Savanah.

A Hurricane Watch is issued from Altamaha Sound, GA to the South Santee River, SC including Charleston

As feared last night the morning USAF mission has found the pressure has fallen from 962mb to 944mb or a drop of 18mb in the last several hours and flight levels winds of 132kts were observed. Matthew is now within range of the Miami radar and shows as a well defined major hurricane and this is supported by the USAF radar images. The current intensity is set at 125mph, but intensification to landfall in FL is likely and Matthew is now forecast to reach the coast as a 145mph powerful category 4 hurricane…capable of extreme damage.

UPDATE: As I am typing dropsonde in the eyewall of Matthew has recorded a pressure now down to 941mb and surface winds of 129kts (149mph)

Based on the current radar and aircraft fixes it appears that the major city of Nassau in the Bahamas will take a direct hit shortly from the eyewall of Matthew. Nassau is currently gusting to 65mph and a smaller island just outside the core of Matthew recorded sustained winds of 87mph gusting to 91mph

To show how rare of an event this will be…since 1851 there has never been a major hurricane landfall on the coast of FL north of Stuart, FL…or roughly from N of West Palm Beach all the way to Jacksonville.

Track:
A worst case track to bring tremendous devastation to nearly the entire east coast of FL…the sheer size of the areas that will be severely impacted by this hurricane is overwhelming and will require a massive response.

Matthew is moving toward the NW at 10-12mph this morning and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn to the NNW tonight and the N late Friday. On this track the core and eye of Matthew will reach the FL coast near or either side of West Palm Beach late tonight and then track either along or just inland of the coast northward to near Jacksonville.

Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach SE FL by this afternoon and hurricane force winds will arrive into the southern portion of the Hurricane Warning area by early to mid evening. Locations in the hurricane warning area can be expected to experience sustain hurricane force winds for 8-12 hours with 3-4 hours of winds sustained at or above 130mph.

Intensity:
Matthew is forecasted to strike FL as a 145mph powerful category 4 hurricane. The last category 4 hurricane to strike the US was Charley in 2004 in SW FL.

Data from the current USAF mission shows a well defined major hurricane will deep convection having wrapped completely around the eye feature. There appears little to prevent intensification of the hurricane to landfall on the FL coast and it is very likely Matthew will landfall as an extremely powerful category 4 storm. Due to the track of the center right along the coast…only minor weakening is expected as Matthew will remain close enough to the water sea surface and much of eastern FL is flat. It is likely Matthew will bring category 4 winds to much of the heavily populated eastern FL coast.

Impacts:
Impacts along the FL east coast will be devastating to catastrophic.

Wind:
Sustained winds of 130-145mph will be possible along the barrier islands from N of West Palm Beach northward to near St. Augustine including Cape Canaveral (buildings at KSC are designed to withstand 125mph). Most structures on the barrier islands will feel the full effects of these winds and suffer tremendous damage. Inland from the barrier islands winds of 75-100mph will be possible with damage mainly to roofs and trees. Tropical storm force winds will be possible over nearly the entire peninsula of FL. East central FL has a large mobile home and RV population and these area will suffer catastrophic damage

Storm Surge:
Life threatening coastal inundation from sea water along the barrier islands is likely along with battering waves.

Based on the latest forecast track…powerful winds in the northern eyewall of Matthew will drive a storm surge and massive waves against the ENE facing barrier island. Water levels are forecasted to rise 6-9 feet above ground level on the barrier islands which will overtopped, breach, and destroy dune protection. Large bettering waves will be directed into the first floors of structures on the beach front including condos, hotels, and resorts that populate the barrier island. Massive beach erosion will undermine structures to the point of total collapse and will be swept away.

Storm surge values of 6-8 feet will be possible along the SE GA coast where inundation of the coastal area is much more significant including portions of Savanah, St Simon Island, and Tybee Island. It is still not sure exactly how close Matthew will track to those locations which will have a large impact on the surge inundation values.

For portions of the SC coast storm surge values of 4-6 feet are currently expected above ground level which would inundate portions of Charleston and much of the populated beach areas. As with GA, the exactly values in this portion of the track are still uncertain as a closer track to the SC coast would result in much larger values than currently indicated.

Failure to comply with mandatory evacuation orders for coastal storm surge or mobile home areas will place lives in grave danger.



Storm Surge Inundation based on latest NHC Advisory:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Haiti Update:
Since there has been very little information from Haiti, the USCG flew a recon mission yesterday to survey the southern coast which was impacted by the eyewall of Matthew. They estimate that 99% of the structures were destroyed. The USS George Washington has been deployed to the southern Haiti coast. It is likely that the death toll in Haiti will be significant.

Below is the Hurricane Local Statement from NWS Melbourne, FL detailing the likely impacts of Matthew along the FL east coast:

HURRICANE MATTHEW LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL142016
544 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW CLOSING IN ON FLORIDA...
...STRONGEST HURRICANE TO AFFECT THIS AREA IN DECADES...

NEW INFORMATION

---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA

COUNTY...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD

COUNTY...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...ST.

LUCIE...MARTIN...COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD

COUNTY

- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE

COUNTY...SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY



* STORM INFORMATION:

- ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL OR ABOUT 300

MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE FL

- 24.2N 77.1W

- STORM INTENSITY 125 MPH

- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------

DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL

BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COAST

OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.



EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTAINING THE

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL MOVE

ALONG OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE VERY

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.



WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING WIND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS LOFTED BY EXTREME WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BREACHING

STRUCTURES, UNPROTECTED WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EFFECTS SUCH AS THESE

RANGING FROM THE COAST TO WELL INLAND HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN

CENTRAL FLORIDA IN DECADES.



LOCAL WINDS WILL EXCEED WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANES OF

2004. ANY EVACUATIONS AND STRUCTURE PREPARATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED

THIS AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BEGINNING AT DUSK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.



INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, THE THREAT IS HIGH FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FRIDAY MORNING WITH A HIGH THREAT FOR

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FARTHER INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY.



WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE

THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING IS HIGH. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO

7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD

COUNTIES, WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF INUNDATION EXPECTED OVER MARTIN AND

SAINT LUCIE COUNTY BARRIER ISLANDS.



LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG BEACHES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 12 TO 18 FEET AND

PRODUCE ROUGH, POUNDING SURF RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OF

COASTAL FLOODING FROM DUNE BREACHING, ALONG WITH VERY SEVERE BEACH

SCOURING AND SAND DUNE EROSION. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AGGRAVATED BY

HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY IN VOLUSIA COUNTY.



SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND PILING AND SURGING OF WATER WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE

INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, LAGOONS, AND INLETS. THE CLOSE APPROACH OF

MATTHEW`S EYE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MEANS PROPERTIES

FACING EAST AND WEST ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL BE

SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND DRIVEN PILING OF WATER. ADDITIONALLY, WIND DRIVEN

PILING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BANKS OF THE SAINT JOHNS

RIVER IN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.



HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

FREQUENCY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS

FROM HEAVY SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER RAINFALL WILL HOLD VERY LITTLE

ADDITIONAL WATER BEFORE WATER QUICKLY BEGINS TO POND, ESPECIALLY IN

LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. STANDING WATER WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY

RISING, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, AND COULD ENTER HOMES AND

BUSINESSES DURING MATTHEW`S PASSAGE.



RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED

TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER. TAKE ACTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR READINESS PLANS HAVE

BEEN COMPLETED.



POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------



* WIND:

PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING

IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN

THIS AREA INCLUDE:

- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF

AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE

GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS

MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.

- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND

ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.

- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN

OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS

ROUTES IMPASSABLE.

- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.



ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE

IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.



* SURGE:

PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE

IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN

THIS AREA INCLUDE:

- LARGE AREAS OF DEEP INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING

ACCENTUATED BY BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS,

WITH SEVERAL WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING

DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.

- LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS

MAY BE WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS

AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.

- SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS.

- MAJOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, PIERS, AND OTHER

COASTAL STRUCTURES. MANY SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS,

ESPECIALLY IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WITH SOME LIFTED ONSHORE

AND STRANDED.



ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL

IMPACTS INCLUDE:

- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY
BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

* TORNADOES:

PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS

INCLUDE:

- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND
COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
FOR THOSE UNDER EVACUATION ORDERS, LEAVE AS
SOON AS PRACTICAL WITH A DESTINATION IN MIND. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLE
WELL AHEAD OF TIME. BE SURE THAT YOU TAKE ALL ESSENTIAL MATERIALS
FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT. LET OTHERS KNOW WHERE YOU ARE GOING
AND WHEN YOU INTEND TO ARRIVE.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED
ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER.
BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND HELPFUL TO OTHERS.

IF RELOCATING TO A NEARBY SHELTER OR TO THE HOME OF A FAMILY MEMBER
OR FRIEND, DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.
REMEMBER, MANY BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS WILL BE CLOSED ONCE HIGHER WINDS
ARRIVE. ALSO, IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER COVERING THE ROAD, SEEK AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. ALWAYS OBEY OFFICIAL ROAD SIGNS FOR CLOSURES AND
DETOURS.

[unome]

937mb - a drop of 27mb from 8 AM yesterday

[unome]

long range radar (corrected)

[srainhoutx]

Zoomed in visible shot of Matthew and wider view of Matthew and soon to be Hurricane Nicole to the East.

[unome]

NASA/MFSC Interactive, Rapid Scan, Visible, centered at 8 AM position

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[tireman4]

HGX take on Matthew:



.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.