Tracking the Tropics:

[tireman4]

The thought is 1-2 more days before we really see something. I think Wxman 57 referred to that on another channel. I am thinking that too, but again Andrew, you and Srain have a better handle on this than I do. I am little concerned about the Gulf blob. It is that time of the year...

[unome]

It appears that it is developing now. Wind shear has collapsed and a Reconnaissance Mission is due to arrive later this afternoon to verify if we indeed have a Tropical Cyclone.

I think the PM recon was cancelled, but you can view recon live at the following links in Google Earth & CESIUM - Chris updated both versions just today, to have Rapid Scan imagery as an option (when it's available)

• http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium
  
  http://tropicalatlantic.com/overlays/SS ... _Earth.kmz

[Scott747]

The Global Hawk will be doing some drops over 99l before heading towards Gaston. Mission leaves at 4.

So far with all the data coming in the westward trend has stopped with a bias more to the E and intensity has gone way down - But I think the models are still having issues that there remains more uncertainty than ususal, though not having a developed system surely isn't helping.

Now closer to home some of the models that were showing our new little feature deserve some kudos. Most folks were dismissing it because of the impacts they felt it was having on the future track of 99l. Not showing any signs of becoming a true tropical system (yet) but warrants an eye. Will be curious if it gets an invest tag going forward.

[Rip76]

The Global Hawk will be doing some drops over 99l before heading towards Gaston. Mission leaves at 4.

So far with all the data coming in the westward trend has stopped with a bias more to the E and intensity has gone way down - But I think the models are still having issues that there remains more uncertainty than ususal, though not having a developed system surely isn't helping.

Now closer to home some of the models that were showing our new little feature deserve some kudos. Most folks were dismissing it because of the impacts they felt it was having on the future track of 99l. Not showing any signs of becoming a true tropical system (yet) but warrants an eye. Will be curious if it gets an invest tag going forward.

Is this gulf action even really moving?

[Andrew]

The Global Hawk will be doing some drops over 99l before heading towards Gaston. Mission leaves at 4.

So far with all the data coming in the westward trend has stopped with a bias more to the E and intensity has gone way down - But I think the models are still having issues that there remains more uncertainty than ususal, though not having a developed system surely isn't helping.

Now closer to home some of the models that were showing our new little feature deserve some kudos. Most folks were dismissing it because of the impacts they felt it was having on the future track of 99l. Not showing any signs of becoming a true tropical system (yet) but warrants an eye. Will be curious if it gets an invest tag going forward.

Is this gulf action even really moving?

Slowly, it has good mid to upper level support. Just have to see if any type of LLC develops and can strengthen. As of right now it looks like it will stay really weak and will just provide rain (highest totals along the coast).

[Rip76]

Thank you.

Tough to tell.

[unome]

NASA Hurricane posted about the gulf just a bit ago - also, you can track their Airborn Science Program flights using their "Asset Tracker": http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker

Global Hawk will be busy, looks like it just took off again: https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/aircra ... craft_id=7

https://www.facebook.com/NASAHurricane/
https://twitter.com/NASAHurricane

ATLANTIC/Gulf of Mexico - Watching a Gulf of Mexico Low
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak area of disturbed weather.
This is an image of the clouds associated with the low pressure area from NOAA's GOES-East satellite.
Surface pressures in this area are high, and significant development of this system is not expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. However, regardless of tropical cyclone development, this disturbance could produce rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. The chances for formation over the next 5 days is low.

[unome]

Global Hawk will be busy, looks like it just took off again: https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/aircra ... craft_id=7

looks like it turned & is heading back, hope there's not a problem?

[unome]

not sure what's up with the hawk, but there is a new invest by Bermuda

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1

[srainhoutx]

Looks like 91L is for what was Fiona.

[jasons2k]

No flights tonight so crew can rest. Next flight scheduled for tomorrow @ 2PM.

[Skyguy]

Yikes! I thought SE Texas was safe from 99L.

[Rip76]

Wth?

[Skyguy]

Wth?

That's just what I was thinking....BUT----Are these dynamic models or just climatological/statistical models? I'm afraid I really haven't studied those things as well as I should have.

[Andrew]

The models posted above are not the most reliable and pretty much every global/dynamical model shows little to no development. LLC has kicked away from convection again.

[unome]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 999,28.641

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 591,23.119

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 175,30.532

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 780,28.147

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later this weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure centered about 130 miles southwest of Bermuda is producing winds of around 35 mph. While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near the center during the past few hours, any significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air. This low is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brennan




UPPER TX COAST, SOUTHERN LA, & SOUTHERNMOST MS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARBY DISTURBANCE. WHILE THERE ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN BOTH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN AXIS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LA/UPPER TX COAST GIVEN WEDGE OF MID/UPR LEVEL DRY AIR JUST TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO FOCUS CLOSE TO THE COAST PRIMARILY IN THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWING POCKETS OF 4-7" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LA AND THE UPPER TX COAST, WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LAKE CHARLES LA AND HOUSTON/GALVESTON FORECAST OFFICES.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_Atlantic.html

[unome]

global hawk still out there, didn't drop down to 99L

• http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/viz/?active=avaps#

click menu, upper left, for options

[srainhoutx]

Noticing this morning that the Madden Julian Oscillation and a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave are entering the Caribbean Seas this morning. The atmospheric features suggest rising air and greater instability will continue to increase across the Western Atlantic Basin for the next week or so.

99L may be responding to conditions that have been lacking for tropical development this morning as increased convection and a bit more well define circulation center is organizing just South of Andros Island in the far Western reaches of the Central Bahamas. This area near Andros Island and the Florida Keys has a history of spinning up Tropical Cyclones quickly over history. Will need to monitor a bit closer to see if this tropical mischief finally able to get its act together and develop. Perhaps the models were just a bit too quick all a long in suggesting tropical development.

[cisa]

Which model do you guys think is most reliable ?

[DoctorMu]

Hello. It's me again.





GFS still projecting lemonade.


Dazed and confused - stay tuned.