TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche

[ticka1]

but isnt it always the case until a LLC forms the models do not have a good handle on 97L?

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Atlantic tropical wave 97L continues westward over the Caribbean Sea with better defined organization.

Discussion:
Overnight satellite images and long range radar loops from San Juan indicate that the tropical wave and associated mid level low pressure system with 97L has become better organized and a tropical cyclone is likely forming. Satellite overpass indicates surface winds of 40-45mph along the sharp wave axis, but all available data still does not suggest a low level center has formed which prevents to initiation of advisories by NHC at this time.

A deep convective blow up over the mid level center has maintained itself overnight and the system is located on the western edge of a 200mb anti-cyclone (high pressure aloft) which is favorable for development. This wave axis is slowing as it continues westward and will continue to slow and this should allow sustained deep convection to finally work the mid level center to the surface.

Track:
Global forecast models and their ensemble members have come into much better agreement during the past 24 hours and keep the system moving generally toward the W into the western Caribbean Sea, then across the southern Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and eventually eastern MX well south of TX. While heights aloft will weaken by the end of the week over TX, they are not forecasted as low as yesterday indicating more high pressure along the US Gulf coast which should help drive the system more westward. While there is not a defined low level center to track at this time, there is decent agreement among the various models on this forecast track and the confidence has increased compared to yesterday.

Intensity:
When the system finally closes off a low at the surface, intensification will begin. There appears little, besides time over water to prevent intensification as the system will be moving over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin with favorable upper levels winds (little to no shear) and a large moist plume surrounding the system. Low level convergence will also increase over the western Caribbean Sea as trade winds “pile up” in this region which will help with rising surface air.

A tropical storm is very likely as the system moves south of Jamaica and the system may approach hurricane intensity as it nears the eastern coast of the Yucatan on Thursday. This is in agreement with the global model guidance intensity forecasts. The feature will weaken as it crosses the Yucatan, and much of the intensity in the Bay of Campeche will be determined where the system moves back over the warm waters and how long it will be over those waters.

Impacts:
There is expected to be little to no impact along much of the TX coast from this system. Wave Watch III has increased swells reaching the TX coast this weekend, but this is dependent on the size of the circulation and intensity of the system in the southern Gulf.

While rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with a surge of deep tropical moisture, the majority of the banding features on the northern side of the circulation envelop will remain south of TX.

Current NHC tropical weather outlook indicates the chance of development over the next 5 days is at 90%.

[srainhoutx]

Busy Reconnaissance Schedule ahead and a Mission has been tasked for later today.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72             FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 02/1130, 1730Z                A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE           B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 02/0715Z                      C. 02/1930Z
       D. 16.1N 79.0W                   D. 16.2N 81.8W
       E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z          E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43           FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
       A. 03/0930Z                      A. 03/1130, 1730Z
       B. NOAA3 0405A                   B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
       C. 03/0600Z                      C. 03/0800Z
       D. 16.4N 83.9W                   D. 16.6N 84.3W
       E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z          E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
    3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
       INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z. 

[srainhoutx]

I will not be surprised if we see increased development once the low and mid level vorticity nears the Windward Passage (between the Western tip of Haiti and Eastern Cuba) and clears any disrupted inflow from the high terrain Hispaniola.

[Rip76]

With each new satellite view I see, it appears to be gaining latitude.

Maybe that's just clouds getting blown off the top though.

[Stormrider]

Rip, I thought the same thing, that the movement was a little WNW. Recon should give us a better handle on things.

[davidiowx]

Sure does look like it is getting a little better organized

[ticka1]

as it has been on prior storms until the models can intialize on a LLC they will change. But we dont need a Tropical system here in SE texas so the model clusters going to Mexico is okay with me.

[unome]

recon on it's way ! finally, data !!!

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:11Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 18:00Z on Monday
Coordinates: 24.9N 87.4W
Location: 354 statute miles (569 km) to the W (274°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 7,020 meters (23,031 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 13 knots (From the E at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -17°C (1°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -35°C (-31°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,630 geopotential meters (25,033 geopotential feet)

[wxman57]

Got a ship report at 16.3N/73.2W. SSE 35 kts. That's just south of that ball of convection centered near 16.9/73.2. Ship reports are often unreliable, but it does indicate TS winds present.

[srainhoutx]

Zoomed 2km Visible Imagery clearly shows that inflow at the lower levels are increasing as 97L approaches the open waters of the Windward Passage.

[unome]

love this...

still: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMsSeNvA15.jpg

animate: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[srainhoutx]

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic · 3m3 minutes ago
Reconnaissance aircraft returning home due to maintenance issues.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface
observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a
closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm
is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning. An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Tuesday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over
Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight.
Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea
should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave passing just south of Jamaica is moving
rapidly westward at about 20 mph toward the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical storm will likely form later today. An
Air Force plane is enroute to investigate the wave and determine if
a closed circulation has formed. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, the wave is already producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and
these conditions along with heavy rains will likely continue over
portions of Jamaica this morning, and will spread over the Cayman
Islands later today. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea,
primarily the north coast of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor products issued by their local
meteorological services for possible watches and warnings. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Avila

[srainhoutx]

Early morning 1km zoomed visible imagery suggests 97L does have a low level circulation around 17N and 77W out ahead of the convection. RECON is en route and we should know if it is enough to upgrade within the hour. I do not expect intensification until the disturbance slows down as it nears Belize/Yucatan Peninsula later today into tomorrow when it may become more vertically stacked.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like RECON has found a low level circulation around 16.15N and 80W. 1002.2mb with some WNW winds South of the center. It is a small center.

[srainhoutx]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Earl with a Special Advisory to be issued before noon EDT.

[Rip76]

[Texaspirate11]

Special Advisory on EARL, our 5th named storm of the season

TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1600 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.2W AT 02/1600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.2W AT 02/1600Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 94.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA