weatherag wrote:slight weakening as the leading edge slowly propogates SE'ward....we'll have to see if it can hold together. Maybe I was being too optimistic
It does not appear that will continue as it closes in on the area. We'll see... I'd advise everyone to assume things to be bad. At least one can be prepared should things hold together.
The NWS states that the winds could be as high as 70 mph with the part of the line charging southeastward at 60 mph towards the Victoria and Corpus Christi areas. The part of the line moving eastward into our area may have trouble moving through due to this afternoon's thunderstorms working over the atmosphere and leaving an area of less unstable air over Houston. I don't think it will die out completely, but I don't think we see any severe weather. I think this is why the SPC only issued a watch for areas SW of SE TX. It certainly looks much nastier out towards that way. Our part of the line may be lessening in intensity just by looking at the last few radar frames. However, still expect to see some thunderstorm activity tonight.
weatherag wrote:slight weakening as the leading edge slowly propogates SE'ward....we'll have to see if it can hold together. Maybe I was being too optimistic
What do you think the cause of that is? The lack of heating?
Nothing to do with the lack of heating. These are nocturnal thunderstorms. This afternoon's thunderstorms left the atmosphere a lot less unstable over our area than it is across South Central Texas. It won't go poof, but it won't be severe either.
For instance, it is a rain-cooled 78 degrees at IAH with a dewpoint of 68, while the temperature in Victoria is 82 with a dewpoint of 76.
agree with Mr. T -- more unstable air mass over deep south Texas....thus SPC placing slight risk over that area where thunderstoms didn't work over the atmosphere
I am working in NW San Antonio, and let me tell you those storms blew in with a vengence. The wind was blowing water under my door on the second floor of the hotel. The power has been out for awhile too. One heck of a lightning show also.
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR/MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AS IT SEEMS TO LINGER AOA THE TX/LA COAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SO IN LIGHT OF THIS DEVELOPING TREND...HAVE
BACKED OFF (JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES) ON THE HOT/DRY FCST FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE SAME RULE WILL ALSO BE APPLIED TO NEXT WEEK AS LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE ARE ALL STARTING TO LEAN A BIT MORE TO THE WETTER/
SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF WITH THESE 12Z RUNS. 41
Tonight is the kind of situation where I will just never understand the way the NWS uses its POPs (the coverage for rain).
The forecast for tonight calls for a 60% chance of rain, which is supposed to mean that 6 out of 10 places will recieve rainfall. The kind of coverage we will see tonight is categorical, or near 100%. And yet despite what we've known since this morning and can see coming right at us on radar, the chance for rain is still held at 60%. I just don't get it... It's not a big deal, but just something I've never understood about them.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/03/10 0336Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-E 0315Z GG
.
LOCATION...EC TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...N MCS/MESOLOW
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SFC WIND FLOW AND IR LOOP SHOWS A CELLS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF CENTRAL TX MCS WITH
ISOLATED CELLS TO THE E IN FREESTONE/ANDERSON/CHEROKEE COUNTIES ROTATING
NWLY TOWARD THE LOW BEGINNING TO MERGE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS
SQUALL LINE HAS WARMING TOPS THOUGH LIKELY STILL EMBEDDED HVY RAIN THOUGH
HAS NOT PROGRESSED FURTHER E LIKELY LEADING TO STATIONARY HVY RAINFALL.
WITH WARMER TOPS RATES ARE LIKELY A BIT LOWER THOUGH WITH PWS IN THE
1.5-1.75" RANGE AND STATURATED PROFILES... SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 1.25-2"
HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED SO FAR BURLESON TO LIMESTONE COUNTY. VERY COLD
MERGER AT FREESTON/ANDERSON COUNTY LINE HAS ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO 1-1.5"
TOTALS IN THE LAST HOUR.
Impact to Harris county and points north are less of a concern now. If you live south of these counties, pay attention to the area forecasts for your county. Also, watch the radar for what looks looks like an area of storms moving out ahead of the main line, or what looks like a bow. See if your county is going to be under one of these. Very strings winds can be expected from this sort of thing.
So does that put Galveston County in the clear as well for severe storms?
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
