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Seeing some high radar totals south of Bastrop. Training setting up too.

Another 1.25" here today, bringing my storm total to 5.3".

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 34.1W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 34.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).
This general motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of
days, and the system is expected to remain over the open waters
of the tropical Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is predicted, and the depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Flash Flood Watch continues for one more day across SE TX as isolated heavy rains will again be possible with the deep tropical moisture. Invest 98L has become TD 6 in E Atlantic and become our next TS but is no threat to land over the next 5 days.

A couple of days ago NWS discussions made reference to a similar system next week. This morning the NWS made a reference to a shear axis affecting northern areas this weekend but that was it. Just wondering if the system for next week is still on or if things have changed.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1019 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

.UPDATE...
A few tweaks were made to the PoP forecast to reflect some of the
short term guidance. Showers and thunderstorms are currently
moving inland across the coastal zones this morning. Thinking this
trend should continue into this afternoon, eventually ending up
with the greatest coverage over the northern zones later this
afternoon and this evening. Coverage should shift to more of an
offshore/coastal pattern overnight tonight. A Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect for most of SE TX until 7 PM this evening. No
other significant changes were made. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A Flash Flood Watch will remain in place across most of SE TX
today. The airmass over the area remains very moist/unstable and
with daytime heating, widespread development of showers/thunder-
storms will be likely. Given the (still) high PWs (2.2-2.5") the
stronger storms will be capable of producing rainfall rates from
2-3" per hour. However, on the plus side, storms will be moving,
thereby reducing the possibility of training rains.

If models are to be believed...we should see slightly lower POPS
starting tomorrow into Friday. The mid/upper level ridge just to
our east will continue to build in this direction...which should
push this swath of deeper moisture to the NE. But in its wake, a
weak shear axis is progged to linger over our northern counties,
just on the periphery of the ridge, through the weekend and into
the start of next week. This feature will likely be the focus of
mainly afternoon convection during this time frame. With the de-
crease of POPS...we should see a corresponding increase of temps
over the weekend (especially highs). 41

MARINE...
Pronounced easterly LL flow inland with speed convergence noted
in the surface wind field nearshore. Showers developing over the
coastal waters this morning and should continue to do so through
the morning hours then taper off this afternoon. Winds near 15
knots early this morning will gradually relax this morning and by
early afternoon should be closer to 10 knots. Overall winds across
the Upper Texas Coast should be in the 10-15 knot range throughout
the weekend. Slight increase may occur in response to the passage
of the upper trough through the Great Plains Fri/Sat with peak
winds occuring each of those nights...might get to SCEC. Tides of
0.5-1.0 foot above normal should be the norm through the weekend.
45

AVIATION...
IFR cigs 400-900ft from DWH northward with VFR scattered 1500-8000ft
to the south of DWH including IAH/HOU as of 09z. As showers move
inland this morning expect to see at least patch MVFR cigs/vis with
showers as they move through this morning transitioning to TSRA by
14-15z if not sooner. Active weather for most TAF sites through 21-
22z then should see a quick drop in coverage again for IAH southward
and then for CLL-UTS a few hours later.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 75 85 75 89 / 70 40 50 30 40
Houston (IAH) 86 74 87 75 87 / 60 30 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 84 81 85 / 60 30 40 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...Jackson...
Liberty...Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

4.3 in of rain IMBY while away. Death Ridge slain.

T&P to those around Baton Rouge and surrounding south Louisiana.

Getting a good downpour here in Richmond.

Maybe I have been entranced by all of these rain cooled days that we have had, but - - are we going to see anymore 100F temperatures for the rest of this summer, or are we going to wind down to a lovely fall? Does anyone wish to speculate?

The upper 90's return next week!
Please, I am not ready for everything PUMPKIN SPICED quite yet....

The Flash Flood Watch has expired for SE TX this evening as we head toward a more typical late Summer pattern with scattered afternoon showers.

33 year's ago this evening, CAT 3 Hurricane Alicia was approaching the Upper TX Coast.

Hi everybody.

Well, the slow-moving tropical low that caused all the trouble in Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana and SE Texas seems (that's with a big "S") to have moved on. Can I safely assume my services will no longer be needed on this forum?

This was the night before Alicia, with plywood we didn't use.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

.MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...

Radar is starting to get active with showers forming mainly along
the coast. More scattered activity is expected today with still
quite a bit of moisture over the region. Precipitable water values
at 12z for CRP/LCH around 2.2-2.3 inches. Upper level analysis at
500mb shows some ridging developing along the coast but it is
rather flat and elongated. Day time heating should be enough for
storms to develop and re-develop this afternoon. Wind profiles are
rather weak so storm motions will be driven by mesoscale processes
and outflow/cold pool interactions. Rain rates will be a solid 1-2
inches of rain an hour but thinking storm motions like yesterday
may just be enough to not cause flooding problems other than
typical street flooding.

Not much else to update in the forecast other than conditions for
today. Rain chances look to continue through the weekend.

Pouring rain, lots of lightning/thunder in downtown Houston right now... More thunder than we have had with the last few days of showers...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1253 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. STREET FLOODING
IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATER COVERED ROADS!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH WEST...SPRING...ELDRIDGE /
WEST OAKS...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...ADDICKS PARK TEN...GREATER
GREENSPOINT...CYPRESS...SPLASHTOWN...WILLOWBROOK...CARVERDALE...
WESTBRANCH...HOOKS AIRPORT...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING...BRIAR
FOREST...GREATER INWOOD...ADDICKS AND MEMORIAL.

some wicked rainfall rates at a few gages in the last 1/2 & 1 hr http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

intense lightning also http://www.lightningmaps.org

Rip76 wrote:This was the night before Alicia, with plywood we didn't use.

May I use this pic on the air tonight please!!!? This is exactly what I and the rest of Houston Galveston was doing the evening before Alicia hit... nothing.

Cheers!

David Paul

I'll be watching!

Looks like TD #12 in the EPac may create some trouble this weekend for those of us in soaked parts of south central and southeast Texas. I believe the word "mischief" is appropriate ... one of srainhoutx's faves.