Rapid moving storms across the area as the upper level disturbance drifts WSW. NE quadrant beginning to descend on CLL. There will be a wide heterogeneity in local rainfall amounts, but prices is scattered across the region, Nice swirl around Houston, but the east side should move through the area.
388
FXUS64 KHGX 282052
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Rain chances remain above normal for the eastern half of the CWA
this evening. Rotation about the low continues to stream in showers
and thunderstorms, as the center of the low shifts west.
Precipitable waters remain over 2.00 inches as well for much of
region, and show as high as 2.32 inches over Galveston Bay. The GFS
keeps relative humidity high as well, dragging a bullseye of 95%
beginning at Galveston Bay NW, and then weakening it as it moves
over the CWA. 850mb isodrosotherms range from 14- 15.5 degrees,
keeping things saturated aloft. These dewpoints, along with the
assistance of wind speed sheer will continue to advect in more
moisture from the east, into our eastern counties. A slight
enhancement in instability will also influence our chances for
precip as advection of positive vorticity moves over the eastern
coastal waters, helping to drive some lift for the cells moving
onshore into Chambers and Galveston counties this evening. Showers
and thunderstorms should shift westward Monday afternoon, increasing
POPs across the western half the of region.
Surface temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 80s until
Monday, when we start to warm back up slightly. Precip regime falls
back into more of a summer like pattern on Tuesday, as daytime
heating begins to drive the forecast. Coastal areas will see most of
the precip in the morning into the early afternoon, and the inland
areas, more the afternoon and into the evening. This will keep a
chance of rain in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday, as an area
of high pressure also begins to nudge its way into the region
Wednesday night. Chances of rain should again lower moving into
Friday. The heat will creep back into the forecast towards the end
of next week on Friday and the weekend.
08
&&
.MARINE...
Weakening low over the Upper TX coast will keep the unsettled
showery weather going through Tuesday. Winds will vary from
northeast to east and possibly even back to the southeast as the
upper trough drifts toward the Coastal Bend. This in turn keeps that
rich moisture plume oriented over the coastal waters and should help
to fuel the showers. With TD9 northeast of Cuba moving into the
Gulf with a more favorable environment for development expect
that an intensification could lead to increases in seas with some
possibly propagating into the SETX waters on Tuesday/Wednesday of
course that definitely hinges on both the rate and timing of
development of the system. Guidance still keeps it well east of
the area with the only minimal impacts being to the seas and
perhaps turning winds more northerly if it intensifies
dramatically. 45
