August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[srainhoutx]

Water Spout confirmed by tug boat operators in Galveston Bay between Bayport and Eagle Point.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Day Outlook suggests more wet weather may be ahead for our Region and somewhat cooler temperatures due to increased cloud cover. It is interesting to note that the Subtropical Ridge is expected to extend into the SE United States and that may play an important role in the future track of INVEST 99L or potential TC Hermine, if it develops. The Day 8+ Analogs are posted as well.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 22 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2016

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND OFF THE WEST COAST. A BROAD, WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN. THE HIGHER WEIGHTS IN TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND WERE GIVEN TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT AREA. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION INCREASES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE WEST GULF
COAST REGION CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICIPATED TROUGH. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR SOUTH ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH PREDICTED RIDGING.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR GREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

[worrybug]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Day Outlook suggests more wet weather may be ahead for our Region and somewhat cooler temperatures due to increased cloud cover. It is interesting to note that the Subtropical Ridge is expected to extend into the SE United States and that may play an important role in the future track of INVEST 99L or potential TC Hermine, if it develops. The Day 8+ Analogs are posted as well.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON AUGUST 22 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2016

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND OFF THE WEST COAST. A BROAD, WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN. THE HIGHER WEIGHTS IN TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND WERE GIVEN TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL.

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT AREA. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION INCREASES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE WEST GULF
COAST REGION CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICIPATED TROUGH. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR SOUTH ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH PREDICTED RIDGING.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR GREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

Why?

[Katdaddy]

Low rain chance for today and Wednesday followed increasing rain chance from several disturbances rotating under the ridge as well as returning tropical moisture Thursday.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 231125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have developed over the northern TAF sites with cigs
below 500 feet. A patch of thick cirrus has developed and the
Houston terminals have remained VFR for now but there is a short
window of opportunity to get an hour or so of LIFR/MVFR cigs.
Although moisture levels are slightly drier than yesterday, feel
daytime heating will be sufficient to generate scattered shra/tsra
between 16-22z. A sct/bkn MVFR cig possible early Wednesday
morning between 09-12z 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Southeast Texas remains on the western edge of an expansive upper
level ridge spread across the Gulf Coast states this morning.
Infrared satellite imagery shows low stratus gradually spreading
east out of Central Texas towards the region and expect another
morning of low stratus and fog for areas generally north of
Interstate 10. 3 AM surface observations show visibilities
remaining above 5 miles so far, likely aided by light winds from a
weak surface pressure gradient. Expect these winds to help
mitigate against a more widespread dense fog threat, but sheltered
or low-lying areas may still see localized visibilities below 2
miles through sunrise (Lufkin fluctuating between 1/2 mile and 3
mile visibilities). Will continue to monitor for any possible
advisories.

Area radars show a few showers across the coastal waters early
this morning on the nose of a plume of 2 inch precipitable water
values stretching from the Upper Texas Coast into the central Gulf
per CIRA layer precipitable water satellite estimates. Expect to
see a few spotty showers continue across the waters through the
remainder of the morning as this plume nudges farther inland. This
increasing moisture and convective temperatures in the upper 80s
will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
from late morning through early evening. Lower thunderstorm
coverage is expected today than yesterday, however, as the upper
ridge along the Gulf Coast builds farther west. Otherwise, expect
high temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s this
afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to dissipate tonight
with loss of heating, leaving dry conditions for the region
overnight. Another round of patchy fog and low clouds will be
possible for areas outside of the Houston metro early Tuesday
morning with overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Another warm day is expected Wednesday with highs again in the
upper 80s to low 90s and even lower thunderstorm coverage than
today as the upper ridge maintains its influence over the region.
Rain chances begin to increase in earnest Thursday as a series of
shortwave troughs lifting northeast out of the Four Corners region
push the upper ridge east. A series of disturbances rotating
underneath this ridge and returning tropical moisture will allow
for scattered (mainly daytime) showers and thunderstorms Thursday
into the beginning of next week with rain and cloud cover keeping
high temperatures a few degrees cooler in the mid 80s to near 90
through the weekend.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over the northern Gulf and lower pressures over the
central plains will maintain a light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow. The high elongates E-W and retreats to the east
during the second half of the week and surface winds will become
more easterly. An east wind will prevail through the weekend but
speeds will generally remain between 10 and 15 knots. The
prolonged easterly fetch should produce slightly elevated tides
over the weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 75 92 74 91 / 20 10 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 93 76 91 / 30 10 30 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 81 88 / 10 10 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[TexasBreeze]

Streak of rain days ended at 9 days at my house today. It sure got hot and humid again really quick!

[djjordan]

No rain here today at my house either.... which is fine by me.... still have standing water in the back yard that needs time to soak in.

[DoctorMu]

No rain for the first time in over a week. 9.9 in IMBY for the duration. Wow in August.


An eye out for 99L/Hermoine. A week away, but potentially a Gulf storm.



.CLIMATE...
College Station`s August rainfall total (through the 23rd) stands at
8.12 inches which is 6.28 inches above normal. The 8.12 inches is
currently the 5th wettest August on record.

Houston Intercontinental Airport`s August rainfall total (through the
23rd) stands at 9.14 inches which is 6.53 inches above normal. The
9.14 inches currently stands as the 8th warmest August on record.
42
&&


DISCUSSION...

Overall, keeping the forecast trend about the same as previous
forecast, with some minor adjustments which is typical for this
time of year.

IR satellite imagery is showing drier air moving in from the east
toward SE Texas. Thus, am expecting a lull in the activity for
Wednesday and probably into Thursday (however did not go too much
lower on rain chance just yet, as ECMWF is showing a better
moisture increase on Thursday than the GFS). After that question
however, moisture increases once again and rain chances increase
as well, as a TUTT approaches from the east. Best chance for
showers/storms appears to be Thursday night and Friday. After
that, looks like chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms
continue over the area through at least Sunday (and possibly into
early next week) as precipitable waters are over 2 inches and
ECMWF mean RH fields remain high. After the weekend, looks like
moisture remains sufficient for isolated to scattered convection
Monday and Tuesday. The good thing about the rain chance is that
it will continue to keep daytime temperatures from getting too
warm. Concerning temperatures, generally went with a blend of
previous forecast and National Guidance, which resulted in not too
many big changes anyway. Overall, forecast is not untypical for
late August in SE TX.

[Katdaddy]

Another mostly dry day across SE TX with isolated scatters showers. Rain chances increase for Thursday and remain through the weekend as disturbances move W under the ridge. The ridge will play an important role next week.

Invest 99L over the Leeward Islands SE of Puerto Rico is code red at 70% chance of tropical development. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L this afternoon. Long range models are widespread from TX to FLA with different intensities. All models should be taken taken lightly at this point and will change over the upcoming days. The Houston-Galveston NWS state it well in this morning's AFD:

The bottom line is that late August through early October is the
climatological peak of the hurricane season and Southeast Texans
should make sure they keep up with the forecast and hurricane
preparedness regardless of whether or not a system is in or
approaching the Gulf of Mexico.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Increasing rain chances Thursday-weekend

Tropical cyclone threat to the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Morning upper air analysis shows a strong upper ridge of high pressure in place from the SE US into SE TX with heights of around 597dm at LCH yesterday evening. This upper ridging help to limit rain chances yesterday and will do so again today, but will begin to break down over TX starting Thursday…and how very important this high pressure feature will be in the coming week with respect to the track of 99L.

Tropical moisture will make a return to the region starting Thursday and expect to see afternoon showers and thunderstorms both days with rain chances of 40-50%. Heating and seabreeze will make for the most activity. Storm motions not looking all that fast so a few areas could see some heavy rainfall rates. Will keep rain chances going into the weekend as disturbances slide west under the ridge of high pressure over the SE US and moisture remains high.

99L:

Concern is growing that a tropical cyclone will move into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend

99L this morning is over the northern Leeward Islands and while the system looks impressive on satellite images, surface observations show an ill defined surface low pressure system associated with the feature. The Barbados sounding yesterday evening showed two layers of dry air that are likely impacting the wave and helping to mitigate development in the near term. 99L is moving toward the WNW at 15-20mph and this motion is expected to continue bringing the wave across Puerto Rico Thursday and into the SE Bahamas Friday.

Track:
Much of the future track of this system will hinge on the large scale high pressure ridge over the SE US including how strong this feature is, how expansive, and where it is centered. Once in the south/central Bahamas, 99L will begin to feel the large scale high pressure centered near the Carolinas this weekend and will be forced to turn toward the west or even WSW approaching S FL or the keys. Effectively it appears that the door is closed on chances for the system to turn northward and recurve east of the US coast…this suggests a landfalling tropical system is increasingly likely on the US Gulf coast next week.

The next big question, once in the Gulf of Mexico which seems likely at this point, how far west does the system move before turning toward the NW and N and rounding the western edge of the Carolinas high pressure ridge. Global model ensemble support from the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF have all trended westward in the last 36 hours now showing a clustering well into the central Gulf of Mexico and potentially the central US Gulf coast. Operational model runs of these models have been all over the place with widely varied solutions of both track and intensity…but there is starting to be some growing consensus that the US Gulf coast is at threat.

The biggest aspect of the model guidance at this time is the westward trend and general overall placement and intensity of the large scale ridging over the SE US this weekend into early next week. One should not focus on the individual runs of each model, but their 500mb ridge pattern and their respective ensemble plots. Additionally models will continue to struggle until a define low level center develops and the development of this center could be many miles off of where current guidance is suggesting it will form due to the current poor organization of the wave.

Intensity:
Conditions will gradually become increasingly favorable for development as 99L moves toward the Bahamas this weekend. While there are a few factors in/near the Bahamas that could restrict development, the overall pattern appears favorable including generally light wind shear, high moisture levels within where the vortex should be located and very warm waters. This is where model support increases for development. As the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico conditions look ideal for development of a potentially significant tropical cyclone. An upper level 200mb high pressure cell (anti-cyclone) appears to encompass much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico with a westward moving upper level trough over MX/SW TX which could help with the upper level outflow and venting of a developing system. Sea surface temperatures are very warm…running in the mid 80’s and moisture looks plentiful. There appears to be little to stop intensification once in the Gulf of Mexico and the last 3 operational runs of the ECMWF have all shown significant growth over the Gulf.

Residents along the entire US Gulf coast and FL should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Review hurricane preparedness plans and be fully ready to enact these plans by late this weekend.

[jasons2k]

Outflow skipped over me, big storm now up towards Lake Conroe now but I missed out.

[BlueJay]

No rain for us either. I am thinking about running our sprinklers tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Potential for heavy rainfall increases Friday into the weekend

Tropical system expected to reach the E/SE Gulf of Mexico late Sunday/Monday

Local:
Very interesting pattern developing for SE TX and coastal TX over the next 72-96 hours which will greatly increase rain chances…especially south of I-10. A strong westward moving disturbance which was located over FL yesterday will arrive into the western Gulf of Mexico Friday into the weekend and stall near the coast or offshore. Forecast models show this mainly upper level feature attempting to form a mid level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend and even some models show a weak surface low developing offshore of the upper and middle TX coasts. The mid level low will be sitting in a pocket of extremely moist tropical air with PWS of 2.2-2.4 inches along the TX coast from Friday evening through the weekend and into early next week. We have seen this pattern before where an upper level low located over S TX/NE MX produces sustained convection over the NW Gulf and can gradually develop a surface trough or actual low pressure center.

For now will keep it weak and just go with significantly higher rain chances starting Friday and into Monday of next week. 25-30kt low level convergent winds are seen in some of the models off the upper TX coast this weekend suggesting strong low level forcing for the development of excessive rainfall. Think the best rain chances and highest QPF will be along the coast and offshore, but this is heavily tied to where any surface trough develops. Overall motion is very slow of this entire feature and will likely only drift westward into early next week.

Significant changes to the forecast would be required if the trough closes off into a surface low especially with winds, seas, and tides.

99L:
Strong tropical wave continues to move WNW toward the SE Bahamas this morning. USAF mission has been in the system since around 300am and they still cannot close off west winds to officially declare this a named storm or depression. Overall the system looks less organized on IR images this morning with only modest deep convection and any broad low level center likely exposed to the north of what little deep convection there is. The wave continues to move rapidly toward the WNW and will approach the SE Bahamas today and move into the central Bahamas on Friday.

Track:
Global and hurricane forecast models continue to struggle with the upper air steering pattern over the SE US this weekend into early next week which continues to result in large swings between the models and the individual runs. Overall the track forecast is fairly straightforward through the next 48 hours with the system moving WNW into and through the Bahamas and then turning toward the W has it encounters stronger ridging to the NW over the mid-Atlantic and SE US. Recent model runs have shown the ridging being displaced slightly more to the NNE over the mid-Atlantic region compared to yesterday which is allowing the system to turn more toward the NW and N quicker once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However ensemble members still show a large number that indicate more ridging over the SE US and a track deeper into the Gulf of Mexico before turning toward the NW and N.

The overall track confidence is fairly high for the next 48 hours as the system moves WNW through the Bahamas and then begins to turn westward toward S FL or the FL Keys. Confidence greatly decreases once in the Gulf of Mexico as to if the system moves more WNW or begins to quickly turn NW and N toward the eastern Gulf coast states.

Intensity:
The intensity guidance is all over the place with very little consensus between the models or their respective runs. The HWRF and ECMWF are certainly on the stronger side while the GFS still does not want to develop the system. Given the satellite presentation this morning and the poor organization reported by the aircraft, not looking for any development over the next 24-36 hours. Once in the Bahamas conditions begin to improve and this is where development chances will increase. It is certainly possible that the system could develop fairly quickly as it nears S FL/Keys late this weekend with this process continuing into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Monday of next week.

Residents in FL and along the US Gulf coast should remain updated daily on the progress of this system especially over the weekend and be prepared to enact their hurricane plans.

[Katdaddy]

I just noticed the graphic regarding this weekend on the Houston-Galveston NWS website which I did not see earlier.

[Rip76]

Interesting little feature about hour 40.

[don]

Yeah the UKMET shows this feature also...

[Rip76]

What a super tropical atmosphere in the area right now.

[Skyguy]

sorry to be off-topic but:

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Dense fog has been limited to a narrow corridor from
Alice to Beeville early this morning while low stratus was located
over parts of the Brush Country. Fog will continue to be a problem
at ALI until around 14Z with LIFR vsbys/ceilings possible.
Conditions will quickly improve by mid morning to VFR for most of
the area. Higher moisture over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will
move inland across the northern Coastal Bend to the Victoria
Crossroads today. Isolated showers with MVFR ceilings will be
possible during the late morning hours for the coastal plains with
isolated thunderstorms possible in the VCT area this afternoon.
VFR conditions will occur over the area through this evening and
early overnight period. Expect fog will again be a problem for
inland coastal plains late tonight affecting ALI with MVFR vsbys
with IFR vsbys possible. Showers forming over the Gulf again late
tonight will move inland and affect the VCT and CRP areas after
08Z Friday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...With the upper level ridge
shifting slightly to the north, higher moisture over the western
Gulf of Mexico will move into the area over the next couple of
days. Isolated showers have persisted during the night over the
coastal waters and have moved inland into the Victoria Crossroads.
Models depict axis of steeper low level lapse rates over the
coastal waters in region where CIRA layered precipitable water
image shows values around 1.9 inches. Will continue slight chance
PoPs over the coastal plains this morning with a narrow region of
chance PoPs over the Victoria area this afternoon. Steep low level
lapse rates will remain over the coastal waters again tonight and
expect scattered convection to develop overnight. Moisture will
increase from the northeast on Friday with precipitable water
values up to 2.2 inches. Will increase PoPs to 40 percent over
Victoria Crossroads and show slight chance over the eastern Brush
Country on Friday. Low level flow will be more easterly each day
and should lead to slightly cooler maximum temperatures for
coastal areas.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Complicated forecast pattern through much of the long term period.
Upper level high pressure ridge weakens and shifts north and
northeastward late in the week allowing moisture to feed back into
South Texas. Several elements will play a role into the eventual
forecast through the area however...including the tropical
disturbance (99L), a potential mid level disturbance and a TUTT low.
While models will not fully be able to resolve the details of the
tropical disturbance until it gets better organized, most of the
guidance suggests it will remain well east of the forecast area, so
for now will focus more on the expected TUTT low development. Models
have converged to some degree with the TUTT low developing in the
western Gulf of Mexico and moving up the Texas coast. At the same
time, most models also develop a mid-level low in the northwest
Gulf of Mexico with very high moisture. The positions of these two
systems will rule the rain chances across South Texas. The TUTT
low immediately along the coast is not in the most favorable
position, but if moisture from the north can get under it would
still have good rain chances. Will continue a blended approach at
PoPs with mainly slight chance to low end chance across the area,
with the highest PoPs east associated with the deepest moisture.
By the middle of the week, the mid/upper level disturbances should
weaken and begin to lower rain chances. As a result of deep
moisture and cloud cover will expect temperatures to remain
slightly cooler than normal through the period.


I hope they mean east of Texas.

[Texaspirate11]

"Skyguy" You need to take a deep breathe. You cant fall into EVERY little tidbit and run
willy nilly with it. You wont make it through Hurricane season. This aint your first rodeo.
You need to calm down, sir.
NO where does it say it will ramp to be a Cat 4 or 5 and that Houston is in its path.
IF you can prove this scientifically and with the utmost weather knowledge that surpasses our
NWS or NHC, hats off to you - because its truly the million dollar question and NO ONE has
the answers today.
My 8 ball died in Ike so I'm outta luck, myself, sir.
WORRYING and wringing your hands is not the answer.
Do, like everyone else, prepare, watch, LISTEN - yes you may pray if that calms you down.
No where to go? I've told you and others to please register with 211.
Someone will get you out.

I want you to please calm down and trust the process and those on the board who will guide us.I know this is Hurricane Season and the hype alone can send us into the stratosphere.
Sometimes I watch TWC and I feel they are calling a football game with 99L
"Gee the offense looks a little weak over here...need to step it up if they want to move this thing."

Step back and Breathe.
Thank you.

[Skyguy]

"Skyguy" You need to take a deep breathe. You cant fall into EVERY little tidbit and run
willy nilly with it. You wont make it through Hurricane season. This aint your first rodeo.
You need to calm down, sir.
NO where does it say it will ramp to be a Cat 4 or 5 and that Houston is in its path.
IF you can prove this scientifically and with the utmost weather knowledge that surpasses our
NWS or NHC, hats off to you - because its truly the million dollar question and NO ONE has
the answers today.
My 8 ball died in Ike so I'm outta luck, myself, sir.
WORRYING and wringing your hands is not the answer.
Do, like everyone else, prepare, watch, LISTEN - yes you may pray if that calms you down.
No where to go? I've told you and others to please register with 211.
Someone will get you out.

I want you to please calm down and trust the process and those on the board who will guide us.I know this is Hurricane Season and the hype alone can send us into the stratosphere.
Sometimes I watch TWC and I feel they are calling a football game with 99L
"Gee the offense looks a little weak over here...need to step it up if they want to move this thing."

Step back and Breathe.
Thank you.

0.) I am calm, but am not stout of heart for wx extremes, despite my hobby.
1.) No, I said IF it becomes a cat4 or 5 and I meant it hypothetically.
2.) I'm not trying to doomcasting, that distinction is Worrybug's. But, I have been speaking with some of my web buddies (CaneCatcher08 being one of them), and we know that the worst Houston's had has been cat 3. Cat 5, yes, that would be uncharted territory for Houstonians, as there hasn't been any recent record of it---none known to my fellow hobby mets, anyway.
2.5) The Gulf waters are unusually warm, even for this time of year, as the forum knows.
3.) The reason for the model spread is because, simply, there's nothing for the models to lock on to.