Vigorous Tropical Waves/Watching The Tropics

[srainhoutx]

Looking across Africa yesterday and this morning, we are beginning to see the influence of the vigorous vorticity associated with the MJO pulse that is moving across that Region. Some of the Global ensembles are beginning to 'sniff out' the possibility of these vigorous tropical waves attempting to organize as the enter the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, potentially as early as later this week. As we begin to near the month of August, there are some indications that tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin will increase as the Eastern Pacific enters a quiet phase. While the Azores/Bermuda Ridge is expected to keep activity in the Main Development Region somewhat in check this season, all eyes will need to monitor the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic near the Bahamas for Tropical Cyclone genesis as we head toward mid August and toward Peak Hurricane Season around mid September.

Meteosat Yesterday:

Meteosat Today:

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning Tropical update across the Atlantic Basin indicates a couple of tropical waves crossing the Atlantic in the MDR, but some left over African Dust shroud the waves and no development is expected at this time. The morning MIMIC does indicate the Saharan Arid Layer is beginning to weaken as we typically see as August nears and vigorous areas of Convection across the African Continent. There is a rather impressive wave about midway over Africa that some of the models are indicating may attempt to organize as they enter the Eastern Atlantic. It is important to remember that the various tropical waves indicated on the surface charts carry a lot of energy with them as the cross the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean Sea even if they lack convection on their trip across the Atlantic Ocean. I suspect in about 2 weeks we will begin to see tropical disturbances begin to organize and possibly develop as the enter the Western Atlantic Basin, particularly the waters near the Bahamas, Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It's time to focus more attention toward the Tropics as we steadily head toward Peak Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin.

[srainhoutx]

Link to Topic in our Hurricane Central Section for newly designated INVEST 96L existing the African Coast this morning.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2109

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical Atlantic has heated up with activity and a vigorous Tropical Wave near 35W out ahead of 96L will likely be our next INVEST candidate. CARCAH has scheduled a Reconnaissance Mission for Saturday afternoon to investigate this disturbance as it could pose a threat to the Antilles early next week.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-063

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       AT 30/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 57.5W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
       IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

Another vigorous wave is exiting the African Coast and the Global Models suggest this tropical wave may cruise through the Caribbean Sea and end up in the W/NW Gulf in about 10 days or so. Time to focus back to the Eastern Atlantic as we march toward peak Hurricane Season 2016.

The attachment 08012016 18Z avn-l.jpg is no longer available

[unome]

the wave-tracking days of summer

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... vwind.html

[srainhoutx]

The Atmospheric pattern continues to look somewhat favorable for tropical development as a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave enhances thunderstorm development across the Atlantic. There is a vigorous tropical a couple of days from the Lesser Antilles and the ECMWF is suggesting an area of low pressure may attempt to organize early next week as it crosses Southern Florida and potentially nears the Southern Louisiana Coast.

[Katdaddy]

Another decent tropical wave has moved off the Africa Coast and into the E Atlantic.