Models Sniffing-Out future, "Danielle"?
- brooksgarner
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Anyone noticing the GFS, GEM, NAVGEM trying to sniff out a tropical system in the Gulf next week? You know how these go: probably won't happen, but then again ... The ensembles show a weakness in the Bay of Campeche, so it's not DefCon 4.
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Interesting.
I will say these last couple of years, when models have sniffed "something," there's usually been "something."
I will say these last couple of years, when models have sniffed "something," there's usually been "something."
- wxman57
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The GFS (American model) has indicted development in the western Caribbean around June 30th (next Thursday) for the past 3 days. However, it moves the storm anywhere from NE Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Latest run (this morning) takes it to Beaumont/Port Arthur on July 6th, notably later than the July 3 landfall in Florida it predicted most of the time. This could be a sign it's starting to lose the feature. Euro indicates no low in the western Caribbean next Thursday.
The origin of this development appears to be a convectionless tropical wave now located along 33W, about 1800 miles east of the Caribbean. While it's an interesting forecast beyond 10 days, I wouldn't get too excited about development until the development is within 4-5 days and the Euro is aboard. Forget the Canadian & NAVGEM, two of the worst models for predicting genesis.
It's possible that "something" turns out to be only an increase in shower activity across the region.
The origin of this development appears to be a convectionless tropical wave now located along 33W, about 1800 miles east of the Caribbean. While it's an interesting forecast beyond 10 days, I wouldn't get too excited about development until the development is within 4-5 days and the Euro is aboard. Forget the Canadian & NAVGEM, two of the worst models for predicting genesis.
It's possible that "something" turns out to be only an increase in shower activity across the region.