Page 1 of 1
Models Sniffing-Out future, "Danielle"?
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:00 pm
by brooksgarner
Anyone noticing the GFS, GEM, NAVGEM trying to sniff out a tropical system in the Gulf next week? You know how these go: probably won't happen, but then again ... The ensembles show a weakness in the Bay of Campeche, so it's not DefCon 4.
navgem_z500_mslp_us_27.png
gfs_namer_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif
gem_z500_mslp_us_23.png
Re: Models Sniffing-Out future, "Danielle"?
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:36 pm
by Rip76
Interesting.
I will say these last couple of years, when models have sniffed "something," there's usually been "something."
Re: Models Sniffing-Out future, "Danielle"?
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:58 pm
by wxman57
The GFS (American model) has indicted development in the western Caribbean around June 30th (next Thursday) for the past 3 days. However, it moves the storm anywhere from NE Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Latest run (this morning) takes it to Beaumont/Port Arthur on July 6th, notably later than the July 3 landfall in Florida it predicted most of the time. This could be a sign it's starting to lose the feature. Euro indicates no low in the western Caribbean next Thursday.
The origin of this development appears to be a convectionless tropical wave now located along 33W, about 1800 miles east of the Caribbean. While it's an interesting forecast beyond 10 days, I wouldn't get too excited about development until the development is within 4-5 days and the Euro is aboard. Forget the Canadian & NAVGEM, two of the worst models for predicting genesis.
It's possible that "something" turns out to be only an increase in shower activity across the region.