Tropical Storm Colin/Florida Bound

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Beven

[unome]

AL, 93, 2016060218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 792W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 93, 2016060300, , BEST, 0, 162N, 803W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 93, 2016060306, , BEST, 0, 163N, 813W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 93, 2016060312, , BEST, 0, 164N, 824W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS004, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
AL, 93, 2016060318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 835W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004, SPAWNINVEST, al742016 to al932016,

[srainhoutx]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[srainhoutx]

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[srainhoutx]

WTNT63 KNHC 052135
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Colin briefing from Jeff:

3rd tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the western coast of FL from Indian Pass to Englewood FL

Tropical Storm Watch is issued for the east coast of FL from Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

Discussion:
USAF mission late this afternoon found a well defined low level center well west of a linear band of S to N convection, but also several tropical storm force wind samples. On this TD 3 was upgraded to TS Colin over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Center fixes and satellite data show Colin moving northward over the S/SE Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan. Over the organization of the system is fairly poor with most of the deep convection location to the east and most recently the south of the low level center. This is in part due to the upper level trough along the TX coastline which is helping to bring SW shear across the system.

Track:
Colin is embedded in a fairly well defined track steering pattern with a mid level high pressure system over the SW ATL and an upper level trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico offshore the TX coast. This will result in Colin lifting northward and then NNE to NE toward the state of FL north of Tampa over the next 24-36 hours. Colin will begin to accelerate NE across the state on Monday night and then across the Atlantic waters SE of the US coast on Tuesday as the system becomes involved in the upper level westerlies. Global models forecast are in tight agreement on the track of Colin, but due to the shape of the FL west coast N of Tampa and the direction of approach from the SSW/SW it is difficult to accurately determine where exactly the center will cross the coast.

It should be noted that any deviation of the forecast track to the left (west) beyond Monday night could bring TS conditions to the coastal areas of GA, SC, and NC on Tuesday.

It should also be noted that Colin is a large tropical system and impacts will be felt well away from the center…especially to the south and east across much of central and southern FL.

Intensity:
Shear is expected to impact the storm up to landfall on the FL coast which should help prevent any sort of great intensification. A concerning trend this afternoon and evening has been the increasing intensity forecast of the GFS model and to some degree the ECMWF. The GFS brings Colin toward a much stronger tropical storm as it approaches the coast. This appears to be due to a slight relaxation of the upper level shear as Colin passes over the warm eastern Gulf waters. For now NHC caps the intensity at 60mph, but it is possible Colin could be stronger.

As Colin crosses FL and moves over the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the SE US coast, conditions may become favorable for a period of intensification before the system transitions into an extra-tropical storm.

Impacts:
Main impacts will be excessive rainfall across much of the state of FL to the right or where the center crosses the coast. The areas north of Tampa are very vulnerable to storm surge flooding from a tropical system approaching from the SSW/SW. This could aim storm surge flooding of 4-6 ft toward the area N of Tampa depending on the exact track of the center

Note: Colin is the 3rd tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season and it is only June 5th. The typical date of formation of the 3rd tropical storm is August 13th. This is the earliest data the 3rd TS has ever formed in the Atlantic basin…the previous record was June 12…in 1887!

Note: 15 years ago today TS Allison formed off the upper TX coast and made landfall near Galveston. This system would go on to produce one of the most devastating urban flood events ever experienced across Harris County