Bonnie Weakens To Depression Near South Carolina Coast

[TexasBreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front. While development is not expected for the next couple of days, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Blake

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Blake

[srainhoutx]

The area of disturbed weather East of the Bahamas has been designated INVEST 91L

[Andrew]

Now TD 02

[Katdaddy]

...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

5:00 PM EDT Fri May 27
Location: 28.5°N 74.7°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#TWO

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone is just below tropical storm strength. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulfstream.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in
the northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep
convection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance
mission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and
persisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5
hours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston
and Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between
15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind
vectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level
center near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud
canopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has
essentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC
model guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning
toward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a
deep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and
Beaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a
mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the
Mississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the
ridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie
is forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South
Carolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast
by 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models.

Bonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream
sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler
shelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do
not appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on
rather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of
South Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at
least 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant
intensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction
and the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening,
although there could be some convective rain bands over water
producing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and follows the Decay-SHIPS model.

The primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 31.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.5N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 35.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 35.7N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[unome]

now a depression http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#BONNIE