Wx Infinity Forums

from HGX - ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2016/

chamber of commerce weather on tap today through tuesday. gradual warming trend with upper shear axis overhead departing and upper ridging building from west to east across the state. pacific moisture will sweep overhead tuesday as subtropical jet strengthens and buckles off the coast of baja creating a tropical tap that should keep cirrus in the forecast tuesday afternoon through at least friday. low level moisture gradually increases early this week with light onshore flow which may give a few sites some early morning fog...patchy fog possible for areas around wharton monday morning and probably larger area tuesday morning in the sw and other fog prone areas. upper trough moving through the northern plains will push the tail end of a pacific cold front into the region wednesday afternoon and could bring some showers beneath a fairly stout cap and hence will keep pops low at 20 percent for now. although the front does bring some weak caa temperatures drop back to near climo +/- 3 degrees or so wednesday night through friday night. rain free weather thursday morning through saturday morning as high pressure slides overhead thursday then a reinforcing canadian airmass glances through netx friday. easterly ll flow develops saturday with increasing ll moisture which will likely lead to more abundant cloud cover saturday and sunday with dewpoints surging from the 40s friday thanks to the reinforcing dry continental airmass departing and tropical mid 60s dewpoints surging into the region by sunday morning. extended gfs/ecmwf indicating that rain chances will be on the increase again next sunday through tuesday.

Warm Spring weather to continue across SE TX. Only slightly cooler temps behind the next cool front tomorrow. The cap looks to hold tight so only very low chance of an isolated shower with the front. More sun and warming temps Thursday through Saturday before increasing moisture and clouds arrive Sunday into early next week. Another day with extremely critical fire weather across the TX and OK Panhandles.

Weak cold front progressing toward SE Texas suggests more pleasant Springtime temperatures and low humidity will be on tap into the weekend. Mid/upper level moisture from the Eastern Pacific should keep high cirrus clouds overhead as we near the end of the work week. There is a possibility of some deeper moisture originating in the Western Caribbean spreading N toward the Texas Coast by late Sunday with an increase of showers and possibly a few storms next Monday into Tuesday. The most active and unusually chilly early April weather looks to be to our N and E where Winter is not giving up easily. Some of the longer range guidance does indicate the possibility of increasing rain chances across the West next week spread slowly East which may lend to a bit of a more active weather pattern across our Region in the mid April timeframe.

As the weak cool front pushes through that very slight chance of a shower has come to fruition in my neighborhood. Albeit very light shower nonetheless it's still precipitation LOL.

The overnight medium range ensemble guidance suggests a split flow pattern possibly developing with increasing impulses originating in the Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern Pacific bringing increasing moisture inland across the West Coast. A somewhat vigorous upper trough appears to organize over the Great Basin with increasing onshore flow off the Gulf with deep tropical moisture with its origins in the Western Caribbean increasing and moving N toward Texas as we begin next week. An impressive Davis Blocking pattern along the NE United States this weekend that will bring very chilly temperatures across the Eastern 1/3 of the Nation once again for early/mid April suggests the somewhat blocky pattern upstream may bring increasing rainfall chances across the West, Desert SW into the Central and Southern Plains next week. While it is too soon to know with any certainty the exact impacts on our sensible weather, it would appear that an unsettled pattern may develop next week with the possibility of showers and storms organizing across Texas giving us a chance of some much needed rainfall. We will need to monitor the trends over the weekend to see if the QPF suggested by the guidance is correct.

GFS has some light accumulation rain around Monday night. Complicated forecast with Arctic air slipping east. There could be putt-putt on the Masters greens on Saturday in August, GA. Still concerned about the persistent drought tendency here at home, and ran the sprinkler system for a first full run.

At least Lake Travis is full in Austin.

Models are beginning to show a change in the synoptic weather patterns starting next week. Instead of such a zonal flow/ridging pattern over central and southern US, the pattern looks to take a progressive shift with a possible split flow. Multiple shortwaves look to cross the central part of the country over the next couple weeks and we could see some dig pretty far south. This will result in higher rain chances and even the possibility for severe weather over certain parts of the country. Overall though things look more active than they have been (which isn't hard to come by )

Sunday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level flow has become increasingly SW over the last 24 hours and will be maintained through the week…this will bring several upper level disturbances across the region with each providing a shot at showers and thunderstorms.

Main upper level trough will remain anchored over the Pacific west coast into the SW US over the next several days with the upper level flow remaining out of the SW over our region. Hard to time and at times hard to find disturbances will ripple through this flow. One such un-defined disturbance is progressing across SC TX currently with an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some of this activity may make it into our SW/W counties over the next few hours.

Next disturbance over N MX will approach the Rio Grande late this afternoon and look for an increase in thunderstorms over NE MX into SW TX early this evening as lift overspreads moisture surging NW up the Rio Grande plains. This disturbance looks to take aim at areas S of I-10 tonight with showers and thunderstorms possible into early Monday. May need to up both rain chances and QPF tonight if TX TECH model appears to be on the right track and it has done good over the last day or so. Not expecting any severe weather…but a few strong storms will be possible. Current thinking is .25-.50 of an inch of rainfall, but may need to push this higher into the .50-1.0 inch range should we see more development like the TX TECH model is showing.

Weak subsidence behind the departing disturbance Monday AM should help to clear out skies, but another approaching disturbance by mid to late afternoon looks to result in another round of showers and thunderstorms….this time mainly north of I-10. This activity will likely occur near/during peak heating with much more instability to work with. Capping looks to be an issue south of I-10 unless that area is able to heat into the mid 80’s which will strongly depend on the amount of morning showers and cloud cover. SPC has the NE counties of SE TX within a slight risk outline and this seems reasonable given the expected favorable jet dynamics aloft and surface instability. Main question is how far SW the activity may extend and this will be a direct function of the capping aloft. Main threats will be large hail and gusty winds with any of the stronger storms.

Area should see of break for most of Tuesday as a surface front crosses the area and moves offshore allowing a brief period of ridging aloft. However this break will end quickly Tuesday night and Wednesday as a strong upper air trough moves across the region. Lift looks impressive with this system and with the surface boundary attempting to return northward across the region during the same time coupled with moisture levels surging to near 2.0 inches of PW all point toward a short fused heavy rainfall event early Wednesday. Track of the best dynamics coupled with the position of the warm front favor areas along the coast up to I-10 for the best rain chances. Not looking at any severe weather, but would not rule out some strong storms. Main threat appears to be heavy rainfall with totals of 2-3 inches looking possible along and SE of US 59. Will need to keep an eye on this period as stronger dynamics and better defined lift along with any prolonged nature of the event could result in a higher heavy rainfall and flood threat.

Another break Thursday and Friday, but another strong trough will be moving into the SW US late in the week with models showing this system moving out into the plains next weekend additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Overall after a very calm start to April…this week will feature a much more active weather regime.

it's shown "light rain" from 1-6pm http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDWH.html with "0" precip in that time

that blob just sort of evaporated http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/h ... op-rb.html

April is the cruelest month.
-T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land

April has had many well known disasters and tragic events.
Binghampton Massacre-April 3, 2009 13 Killed
Super Outbreak-April 3-4, 1974 319 Killed
USS Akron Crash-April 4, 1933 73 Killed
Tan Son Nhut C-5 Accident-April 4, 1975 153 Killed
Upper Big Branch Mine Disaster-April 5, 2010 29 Killed
Tupelo–Gainesville Tornado Outbreak-April 5-6, 1936 +436 Killed
Start Of Rwanadan Genocide-April 7, 1994 500,000-1,000,000 Killed
Civil War Ends-April 9, 1865 620,000 Killed
1965 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak-April 11–12, 1965 271 Killed
First Shot Fired In American Civil War-April 12, 1861 620,000 Killed
Titanic Disaster-April 14-15,1912 1,500 Killed
Boston Marathon Bombing-April 15, 2013 3 Killed
Texas City Explosion-April 16, 1947 600 Killed
Virginia Tech Massacre-April 16, 2007 32 Killed
West Fertilizer Company Explosion-April 17, 2013 15 Killed
San Francisco Earthquake-April 18, 1906 3,000-6,000 Killed
Waco Inferno-April 19, 1993 78 Killed
Oklahoma City Bombing-April 19, 1995 169 Killed
Ludlow Massacre-April 20, 1914 19-25 Killed
South African Airways Flight 228-April 20, 1968 123 Killed
Columbine Massacre-April 20, 1999 13 Killed
Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Disaster-April 20, 2010 11 Killed
Guadalajara Explosions-April 22, 1992 252 Killed
Rhythm Club Fire-April 23, 1940 209 Killed
Dan-Air Flight 1008-April 25, 1980 146 Killed
2011 Super Outbreak-April 25–28, 2011 358 Killed
Uireyong Massacre-April 26-27, 1982 57 Killed
China Airlines Flight 140-April 26, 1994 264 Killed
SS Sultana Explodes-April 27, 1865 1,800 Killed
Port Arthur Massacre-April 28-29, 1996 35 Killed
Tropical Cyclone 02B Makes Landfall On Bangladesh-April 29, 1991 140,000 Killed
Los Angeles Riot-April 29-May 4, 1992 53 Killed

Some of the worst disasters in American and world history occurred in April. Bold denotes weather and natural disaster.

waking up to the sound of rain = happy dance

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

The SPC has an enhanced risk area across SE OK, SW AR, NE TX, and ETX today. A large portion of SE TX has been placed in a slight risk area. If storms can fire later today; the primary hazards will be hail and damaging winds. Stay weather aware this afternoon.

Morning briefing from Jeff:

A slight chance for severe thunderstorms across the northern ½ of SE TX this afternoon.

Large scale upper level flow remains out of the SW across TX with several upper level impulses riding these high level winds across the state. Each of these disturbances is producing a round of showers and thunderstorms. One such disturbance is currently crossing the area with scattered showers ongoing north of I-10 this morning and offshore across the coastal waters.

Big question this morning is what will transpire this afternoon as parameters will be in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, but a strong capping inversion must be overcome for those storms to be realized. Low level stratus deck in place this morning will make it hard to get much heating although some weak subsidence behind the departing disturbance later this morning may help in scattering out the low level clouds…time will tell. Next incoming disturbance will yield some additional lift over areas N of I-10 this afternoon during peak heating and this may be enough to overcome the cap in place a couple thousand feet off the ground. Anything able to get through the cap will have plenty of instability to work with along with decent shear. Will favor the areas north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Liberty for the greatest severe threat…even though SPC has the slight risk area further SW including metro Houston. Think the cap will be too strong to overcome south of I-10 and do not expect any strong to severe thunderstorms in this region this afternoon. Critical surface temperature to watch for this afternoon is between 81-83 degrees for the cap to break.

Main threats in any severe storms will be large hail and damaging winds with the tornado threat a distant second.

Front will cross the area on Tuesday morning allowing a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region, but this will be short lived as the front stalls just off the coast and the next upper level disturbance quickly approaches from the west. Meso models are wanting to bring showers back toward the coast as early as late Tuesday afternoon with much more significant development overnight into Wednesday as strong lift arrives from the SW over the top of the frontal boundary which will attempt to move northward as a warm front. Instability looks slight so still not expecting much severe weather, but high moisture levels do support a heavy rainfall threat especially along the coast north to about US 59.

Thursday and Friday continue to feature the area between weather systems and overall decent weather. Moisture advection returns in earnest over the weekend with showers and thunderstorms likely back in the forecast by late Saturday.

A day of watching satellite loops. Already some clearing noted to the SW. With the April sun, the stratus deck may get burned off. We'll see...

It's up to 80F in Angleton and 77F at Hobby with breaks in the clouds.

Everyone seems to be saying that the cap is very strong and will hold, especially south of Houston. Time to get the sprinklers out anyways...

Cap is holding all over current SE Texas area - will have to water garden tonight.

Both Wednesday and this weekend offer increased rain chances so I wouldn't give up yet. This weekend could be very interesting if the EURO is correct. A cutoff low over northwestern Texas could sit there for much of the weekend and produce multiple rounds of rain. This is a rather complex situation but models have been rather consistent that somewhere over the southern plains could see a heavy rain potential.

One can only hope...

59 hail reports across NTX yesterday with largest hail being reported in Wylie, TX with softball size 4.25" hail.

A slight risk area exists this evening across STX along the Rio Grande with a marginal risk across S Central and portions of SE TX. In addition a heavy rain threat exists for SE TX from late tonight through early afternoon Wednesday.

Additional rains possible through the weekend beginning late Friday night through next Monday.