March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Widespread significant rainfall of 4-8 inches over the last 48 hours resulting in major responses on area rivers.

Sabine:
All-time record flooding is likely below Toledo Bend. Massive releases continue from Toledo Bend.

Trinity:
Minor to major flooding likely along the entire basin from above Livingston to Galveston Bay. Releases from Livingston will determine max flood level at Liberty. Currently expecting major flooding at Liberty

Navasota:
Major flooding the entire basin. Record releases yesterday over the Lake Mexia spillway is moving downstream toward Lake Limestone. Releases will be increase from Limestone with major flooding likely at Normangee and Easterly.

San Jacinto:
Minor to moderate flooding of the West and East Forks is expected including Peach and Caney Creeks in Montgomery County.

Brazos:
Major rise in the river, but expect to remain below flood stage at all points from Bryan to Richmond. May go over FS at Rosharon

San Bernard:
River is rising over flood stage at east Bernard and will rise to flood stage at Boling.

Guadalupe:
Minor to moderate flooding is likely at Victoria.

Statewide River Levels and Forecasts:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[djmike]

Morning guys. I see radar has quieted down quite a bit this morning. Will this be the case for the remainder of the day or will storms begin to fire up once again once heating gets established or are there any more complexes down south headed in our vicinity? I know rivers, creeks and bayous are the main focus now, but curious if we can expect any more heavy rains or has the main thorough finally shifted eastward? Thanks in advance.

Judging by what I am seeing, the main threat has shifted E toward the Central and SE Louisiana area near New Orleans. That said as long as the upper low is to our SW, don't be surprised if some additional showers and storms blossom ahead of the upper low as it moves toward SE Texas tomorrow and finally shears out Saturday.

Thanks Srainhoutx! Good to hear. Stay safe!

[Texaspirate11]

Evacuations on going near the Sabine River.
I hope everyone gets out safely.
They are calling it "life threatening"

[unome]

just a note to anyone thinking that driving through high water is "Brave" because that's how a media headline reads - it's not brave... you are not only risking your life (& auto) but possibly the lives of your passengers and the first-responders who then have to risk theirs, to rescue people swept away or stranded in floods - not to mention making the job of educating people NOT to do so more difficult

be smart and responsible

[DoctorMu]

Evacuations on going near the Sabine River.
I hope everyone gets out safely.
They are calling it "life threatening"

Remarkable flooding event near the TX, LA border. Bossier City next to Shreveport with major flood.


Only 3.5 in IMBY last night and 4.1 in for the event. Much worse south and east of College Station.

[jasons2k]

This AfternoonShowers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Umm...no. Stiff NE winds today.

[snowman65]

I am about 1.5 miles from the Sabine River. We have never had any issues with river flooding in my neighborhood, and I'de rather not start now. I have seen some videos on FB of the dam letting out water. 9 gates open at 22'.....that's alot of water.

[djmike]

Storms are firing off near Brownsville. I'm guessing this will be our overnight chance.

[BlueJay]

I am astounded that we only received 2.81 inches throughout this rain event. It certainly seemed like much more. The grass is looking greener, I must say.

[jasons2k]

There is more on the way -- it ain't over yet.

Lots of widespread 5-7" rains and much, much more over the Sabine Basin into Louisiana. Widespread creek and river flooding.

While this system didn't start as fast as projected, keep in mind the models - and the forecasters consistently pointed this out too - many times -- there was always a steep rainfall gradient between the places that got dumped on and the places that didn't. In other words, this was not a bust as some were prematurely calling it yesterday morning...

[mckinne63]

I am not sure how much rain we received here in Stafford, but when I got home from work today I noticed our pool was overflowing. Must have been alot of rain last night and early this morning.

My prayers to those who live near the rivers that are overflowing their banks.

[Katdaddy]

The large upper level low is now located over N MX this evening and drifting slowly toward STX with some additional rain and thunderstorm development. I can't remember the last time a powerful upper level low dived into Central MX. Thankfully the Houston-Galveston areas did not receive the heaviest rains as well as any severe weather the last few days but still picked up 3-7" rains. A different story not far to the NE with record flooding forecast along the Sabine River. Only 3.17" here in W League City.

[djjordan]

More rain on the way overnight tonight as the Low moves northweastward. Starting to rain at my house.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST

* AT 1133 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ALONG A LINE FROM 20 NM SOUTH OF FREEPORT TO 35 NM SOUTH OF HIGH
ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 60 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUOY 42035...GALVESTON 256...GALVESTON 317...HIGH ISLAND A23...HIGH
ISLAND A61...HEALD BANK...HIGH ISLAND 63...TABS BUOY B...GALVESTON 150...
HIGH ISLAND 157...GALVESTON 221...NORTH JETTY...HIGH ISLAND A179...HIGH
ISLAND 208...GALVESTON 282 AND GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE.

LAT...LON 2858 9509 2902 9520 2933 9473 2934 9475
2932 9476 2936 9477 2937 9473 2942 9468
2955 9439 2898 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 175DEG 62KT 2897 9420 2861 9507

[Katdaddy]

The upper level low continues to spin across TX this morning. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible across SE TX today and Saturday before sunny skies return Sunday and Monday.

[texoz]

This ULL may be unprecedented for this part of the world.

"As shown in Figure 7 below, this upper low featured a large 558-decameter contour (the 558 dm, which is 5580 meters, refers to the height at which the atmospheric pressure is 500 mb, or about half of the typical surface pressure). Such a large, strong upper low appears to be an unprecedented event in modern weather observations for Mexico; upper-air analyses dating back to 1948 from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project suggest that no previous upper low in this region has been strong enough to generate a 558-dm contour. "

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... s-thunders

[jasons2k]

Might hit 90 tomorrow.

[ticka1]

the dollars signs will start spinning on the electric meter. Not ready for the 90's this early.

[Texaspirate11]

Might hit 90 tomorrow.

I am doing the *HAPPY DANCE*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ugh... not ready for disgusting 90s this early. Hell, I'm not ready for 80s.

[jasons2k]

Great weather yesterday for the drive down from Dallas. I have Spring Fever and can't wait for pool season. I think I might celebrate and grill streaks tonight while I soak-in the extra daylight and lovely weather in my shorts. To each his own.