March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[ticka1]

Look down towards the Brownsville Coastal waters. That's another impulse rotating around the pesky upper low. Looks like another round may develop overnight into Thursday. Frankly I am glad that Houston has been spared so far during the work day. We certainly don't need to see folks attempting to drive home in a flood.

I have been on pins and needles - hoping the deluge doesn't happen until I get home this evening. No desire to try to ride a Metro bus to my park and ride location. Continue to watch the radar and see how things transpire.

[sau27]

I like many others here am bewildered by the course of events, or rather, non-events over the past 24 hours or so. However we are told time and time again that models are just that, and they cant be counted on to verify 100%. Especially given the fact that the driving mechanism behind this is highly unusual. I think this situation provides yet another example of why it is so important to have atmospheric soundings in this area, since something somewhat unexpected has been going on.
Now should things fall back in line with the forecast I think we could be looking at an even more dangerous situation than last night. Not just because of the amount of rain, but because so many people are thinking this event has passed. Should something happen many will be caught off guard and we will hear almost certainly here the all to common "I didnt know this was supposed to happen today".

[djmike]

Rain shield that began off the coast of Brownsville in the gulf has finally made it all the way up to us here in Beaumont. Just started raining, but according to radar, it looks to be losing it's steam. It has though combined with storms to the west of us an now looks to be filling in over southeast Texas. If it continues, we shall see. So far glad nothing extreme has happened and if it must, please let me get home first and I don't feel like staying at work longer than need be. Stay safe everyone.

[sau27]

The past few frames of the radar as well as a look at personal weather stations on weatherunderground definitely look to show a boundary moving into the western part of Houston. Can see storms firing off this boundary right at I-10.

[srainhoutx]

Breaks in the clouds in NW Harris County and a peak or two of sunshine as the temperature nears 80F.

[BlueJay]

I have seen some sun peeking out of the clouds. Temperature is now 61F in the Woods.

[jasons2k]

Front/Boundary has moved off to the SE again and advancing...

Seems the blob in the Gulf has temporarily cut us off.

[Houstonkid]

I left 290/Tidwell about 115 headed to town on 290. Temp was 68, hit the change at 290/610. Windows fogged up instantly and temp jumped to 77.

[Ounce]

Weatherbug site at Memorial & Chimney Rock shows a NNE wind at 7 mph, pressure is 29.73 and rising, humidity 100%.

Popcorn showers blooming in the Gulf and headed north. Must be convection time.

[wxman57]

There's a big thunderstorm complex just offshore SE of Matagorda Bay heading NNE toward Houston. May be here in a couple hours.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I was just about to post on that. All the stuff that had formed around Corpus has missed us to the west. This complex is a little further east and appears to be headed in this direction.

[tireman4]

Question for the mets. Will this front just meander around here until something finally pushes it off?

[Texaspirate11]

This is a great explanation of the system and the complexity of forecasting it.

[wxman57]

Question for the mets. Will this front just meander around here until something finally pushes it off?

No, as the upper low lifts out of Mexico tomorrow the front will move east into Louisiana. It should be located over central Louisiana (north-south) by Friday morning and over New Orleans/SE LA (north-south) by Saturday morning. It'll gradually fade out over MS on Sunday/Monday.

[DoctorMu]

The impulse identified by rain a couple of hours ago is now entering Bryan/College Station and means business. Could be inch an hour totals of study rain for the next few hours.

Another impulse headed N to Bay City and Katy in the next few hours.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
329 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...
FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

* THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS BY THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE MAXIMIZED WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA REPEATEDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0062
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 PM EST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WESTERN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 092117Z - 100217Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA...WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES ARE FOCUSING ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...PROBABLY
FOCUSED AROUND 925 MB. STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS CONVERGING AT
THIS LOCATION RESULTING IN CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF CONVECTION.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY A LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY
IS RESULTING IN LOWER RAINFALL RATES...ALTHOUGH THE STEADY
RAINFALL FALLING ON INCREASING SATURATED GROUND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS NORTHEAST TX AND NORTHWEST LA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 1.75"-1.85" RANGE
ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH 2"+ PWATS
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THIS
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT MUCH
HAS CHANGED YET SINCE OUR EARLIER MPD ISSUANCE FOR THIS AREA. THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE...AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST...UPEPR DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...LIKELY
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM INLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE/FORCING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF.
ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION INCREASE ON RADAR IMAGERY OFF THE
TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY OFFSHORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TX TONIGHT...SUCH AS SHOWN BY ALL
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. IN FACT RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO SLOW BRINGING THIS HEAVIER CONVECTION
SHORE INTO COASTAL TX.

SO REALLY TWO AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. ONE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN LA...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR THE 925 MB BOUNDARY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 3-5" OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH HOURLY TOTALS
UP TO AROUND 1.5" AN HOUR. A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
SEEMS TO BE A DECENT STARTING POINT FOR THE HANDLING OF THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA.

THE SECOND AREA IS ACROSS COASTAL TX...WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
DESPITE ISSUES EARLIER...CURRENTLY THINK THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE MAY
ACTUALLY BE HANDLING THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WELL...BRINGING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO COASTAL TEXAS. AGAIN THOUGH OUR
MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THIS MAY HAPPEN A BIT EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED
BY THE GUIDANCE. SO AREAS OF COASTAL TX THAT HAVE ESCAPED MUCH OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASING FLOOD
THREAT INTO TONIGHT.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...
SHV...

[jasons2k]

Looks like the stuff offshore may just skim by to the east of the metro area, barely, more towards Galveston & Baytown. It will be close....

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on yet another impulse moving out of Cameron County/S Padre Island and another batch S of Mc Allen

[Snowman]

Based on the radar, it looks like the storms heading for southeast Texas are moving quickly which should mean that flooding won't be as much of an issue with this batch. Also, it looks like only east of 45 will get the heavy stuff. There is another batch brewing in far south Texas, so will see if that will bring in some more wide spread action.