latest day 1 convective outlook - hatched for tornado
(Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
SPC AC 081256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX ENE TO THE UPR
TX GULF CST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM DEEP S TX N AND NNE INTO
CNTRL OK AND THE ARKLATEX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE S
CNTRL U.S....
...SUMMARY...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAIN.
...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR
48 THIS PERIOD...WITH NW MEXICO UPR LOW BECOMING FURTHER REMOVED
FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA. THE MEXICAN
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SE ACROSS SONORA TODAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING ESE
INTO CHIHUAHUA TNGT/EARLY WED. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AND
SLIGHTLY BACK DEEP SSW FLOW ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN
PLNS/LWR MS VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...INCREASINGLY MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM CNTRL
AND ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...E OF ILL-DEFINED S CNTRL TX SFC
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SLOWLY E/SE TOWARD THE
S TX GULF CST BY 12Z WED.
...SRN PLNS TO SABINE RVR VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT SVR STORMS IN W CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS NOW OVER CNTRL TX. THIS CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO N CNTRL/NE TX BY MIDDAY. GIVEN 50+
KT SLY LLJ AND PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES...EXPECTED A
CONTINUED RISK FOR EMBEDDED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN END OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD WACO
AND...LATER...POSSIBLY COLLEGE STATION. THE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN...HOWEVER...UPON ENCOUNTERING SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LVL AIR A
BIT LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE ARKLATEX. OTHER STORMS NOW FORMING
ALONG SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WARM FRONT OVER NW TX AND SW OK MAY POSE A
MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND RISK AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NE INTO CNTRL
AND ERN OK LATER THIS MORNING.
SFC HEATING AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED ESE
WOBBLE OF MEXICAN UPR LOW SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TSTMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. BY EARLY
EVE...THE SAME HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED WITH LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MRNG MCS...SHOULD ALSO FOSTER
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER S CNTRL TX NWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
ESCARPMENT.
WITH AMPLE /50+ KT/ SSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND BUOYANCY /MUCAPE AOA 2000 J
PER KG/ FOR SUPERCELLS...BOTH AREAS OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL LARGE MCSS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP
GENERALLY NNE THROUGH THE NGT IN RESPONSE TO
BROADENING/STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR LOW. 50-70
KT DEEP/DIFFLUENT SSWLY MID/UPR-LVL FLOW ATOP RICHLY-MOIST /PW
AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ 30-40 KT SSELY NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE
MAINTENANCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL. THIS
POTENTIAL MAY MAXIMIZE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CSTL
PLN...INCLUDING THE CRP TO HOU CORRIDOR...LATE TNGT THROUGH 12Z WED.
..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 03/08/2016
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