March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[djjordan]

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BASTROP...CALDWELL...EAST CENTRAL COMAL...TRAVIS...
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND HAYS COUNTIES...

AT 201 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR AUSTIN TO NEAR NIEDERWALD TO NEAR STAPLES...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...LAKEWAY...BUDA...LAGO VISTA...
CANYON LAKE...MANOR...BEE CAVE...WEST LAKE HILLS...THE HILLS...WOODCREEK...
ROLLINGWOOD...MARTINDALE AND UHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

[djjordan]

Line of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing Large Hail, Continuous Lightning, Gusty Winds, are approaching from the west. EWX issues new Severe T-storm Warning ....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC021-055-149-177-287-453-240800-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0047.160324T0716Z-160324T0800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT

* AT 215 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANOR TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LULING...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...LOCKHART...ELGIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...
SCHULENBURG...FLATONIA...LEXINGTON...MANOR...WAELDER...MUSTANG RIDGE...
FEDOR...ROSANKY...PAIGE...CEDAR CREEK...MULDOON...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE AND
WYLDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9688 2974 9768 3038 9761 3042 9736
3040 9733 3043 9726 3048 9691 3046 9690
3046 9688 3043 9687 3043 9685 3039 9679
3034 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 262DEG 39KT 3030 9752 2979 9759

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

CP

[djjordan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ163-164-176-195>199-210-211-240900-
MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-BURLESON TX-COLORADO TX-
HOUSTON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOUSTON...BURLESON...
COLORADO...WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN WALKER...NORTHERN GRIMES...
BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...MADISON...NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 254 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN TO 9 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON TO NEAR SMITHVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GONZALES.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...BELLVILLE...
COLUMBUS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BEDIAS...KURTEN...
INDUSTRY...BURTON...WIXON VALLEY...MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD...LAKE SOMERVILLE
DAM AND IOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[djjordan]

Not in our immediate County Warning Area but worth putting out there due to the severity of this particular storm.....


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 254 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEARSALL...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...JOURDANTON...POTEET...CHARLOTTE...CHRISTINE...
MOORE...GOLDFINCH...NORTH PEARSALL...WEST PEARSALL...SCHATTEL...LEMING...
DOBROWOLSKI...DAVIS...AMPHION...THREE OAKS AND COUGHRAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN
INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

[djjordan]

These storms are just now about to enter our Western County Warning Area and do have a history of being Severe .... Not severe at the moment but we will monitor it for any intensification.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ193-194-205-207>209-220>225-240900-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-DE WITT TX-KARNES TX-ATASCOSA TX-FAYETTE TX-
BASTROP TX-GONZALES TX-CALDWELL TX-BEXAR TX-LAVACA TX-LEE TX-
301 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR...
KARNES...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DEWITT...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...LEE...
WILSON...LAVACA AND EASTERN ATASCOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 301 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO NEAR
MULDOON TO MCQUEENEY TO 8 MILES NORTH OF STOCKDALE TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF ELMENDORF...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...GONZALES...BASTROP...CUERO...
FLORESVILLE...YOAKUM...LULING...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...KENEDY...
KARNES CITY...SCHULENBURG...HALLETTSVILLE...YORKTOWN...SHINER...POTH AND
STOCKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 310 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SEGUIN TO 8 MILES NORTH OF NIXON TO NEAR
PANDORA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEGUIN...GONZALES...LULING...NIXON...WAELDER...SMILEY...CHEAPSIDE...
HOCHHEIM...KINGSBURY...PANDORA...PALMETO...GERONIMO...BROWNSBORO...
WRIGHTSBORO...BELMONT...DREYER...THOMPSONVILLE...MONTHALIA...OTTINE AND
TILMON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

[unome]

should be a lightning show per HGX https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/with_replies

from http://lightning.nmt.edu/hstnlma/rt.php ... &density=1


Southern Region Twitter list https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/lists/n ... ern-region



(velocity not updating after 318 AM, so I removed image) http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0S/HGX_loop.gif



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[djjordan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ197>199-211>213-227-241030-
GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
FORT BEND TX-
429 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
WALLER...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS...EASTERN AUSTIN AND NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 530
AM CDT...

AT 429 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PINE ISLAND...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF HEMPSTEAD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...KATY...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...SEALY...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER
FIFTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH WEST...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK
TEN...GREATER HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[djjordan]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ210-211-226-227-241000-
AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-FORT BEND TX-
432 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHARTON...SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 432 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES EAST OF SUBLIME...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...KENDLETON...EGYPT...GARWOOD...
HUNGERFORD AND NADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

[unome]

and it is... http://en.blitzortung.org/live_dynamic_maps.php?map=31

should be a lightning show per HGX https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/with_replies

from http://lightning.nmt.edu/hstnlma/rt.php ... &density=1


Southern Region Twitter list https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/lists/n ... ern-region



(velocity not updating after 318 AM, so I removed image) http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0S/HGX_loop.gif



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/7 ... 8029910016

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 1m1 minute ago

Storms rolling through Houston this hour. 40 mph wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning. #houwx


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeTjxUKWQAAJ44L.jpg

[unome]

picked up a quick inch of rain - in approx. 1/2 hr

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[Katdaddy]

Strong thunderstorms ahead of the cool front moving across SE TX and Houston metro currently with heavy rains and gusty winds. This will make for a messy morning commute. So far the storms have remained below severe levels. Beautiful weather Friday and Saturday before the next front to arrives Easter Sunday with moderate rain chances.

[srainhoutx]

Measured just under .80 inches of rain at the house. Clearly there was a lot of gusty winds with the storms. Oak streamers are everywhere, but fortunately the pollen received far more of a wash down than was expected under a highly capped atmosphere. The hail pictures out of N Texas and the blizzard in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska shows how dynamic this Spring storm was.

[Ounce]

Boy, we just got a big clap of thunder around Memorial and Chimney Rock. The weatherbug site down the street has recorded 0.81 since midnight.

[Katdaddy]

Clearing skies progressing across SE TX on the Easter afternoon. Enjoying the warm Spring temps.

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully everyone had a great Easter Holiday Weekend. Attention in the weather department focusing on the mid week timeframe as a strong shortwave associated with a Western upper trough begins to transition toward the Central Plains. The sub tropical jet looks to be overhead of the Lone Star State Wednesday into next weekend with the possibility of several embedded disturbances riding across Texas. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe appear likely Wednesday if the capping inversion breaks. A Pacific front meanders nearby which could keep things a bit unsettled through Friday. We will need to monitor the trends for Wednesday for the potential of an active weather day, particularly for some strong to severe storms attempting to develop across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Periods of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday-Thursday.

Cool front which pushed through the region yesterday afternoon will return northward as a warm front early Tuesday allowing moisture to return to the region. An upper level low pressure system currently off the west coast will move SE into the SW US over the next 36 hours resulting in an increasing SW flow aloft over SE TX. Within this flow aloft both mid and high level moisture and weak disturbances will cross the region starting as early as Tuesday afternoon, but more likely on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday a weak cool front will progress into the area and possibly pass off the coast late Thursday.

Increasing moisture on Tuesday will allow cloud cover to expand across the region. Moisture may be deep enough by late afternoon and early evening to result in a few showers. Capping inversion above the surface will likely keep thunderstorms from forming, but will have to watch NE of a line from College Station to Liberty late Tuesday night for an isolated thunderstorm.

A decent short wave will cross the area Wednesday afternoon with SE TX firmly within the warm sector. Capping still appears to be an issue along the coast and possibly as far north as I-10, but northward the cap looks weak and breakable on Wednesday afternoon. Air mass will have a fair amount of low level instability on Wednesday afternoon, but there is really not surface trigger for thunderstorm development, except the incoming short wave lift. Think thunderstorms and some severe will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but there are a couple of big negatives to overcome…the cap being one and the trigger being the other. Should the activity get going however, severe threats including large hail and strong winds would be possible.

On Thursday a weak cool front will move into the region and add a surface focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development. May see another upper air disturbance cross the region with the front adding additional lift. This period may end up being the best time for thunderstorms, but shear values and instability appears weaker on Thursday so while a few strong storms will be possible, severe weather is not as likely as on Wednesday afternoon.

Upper level trough remains anchored to the west into the weekend with weak disturbances and impulses moving NE out of the main trough and across TX. Drier air mass should filter into the area behind the cool front late Thursday and help to reduce rain chances even with the continued favorable upper level flow and weak disturbances aloft. Should the front be too weak to push offshore, then rain chances would need to be increased Friday and Saturday with better moisture over the area.

Heaviest rains over the next 3-4 days appear aimed at areas east of TX across the deep south and lower MS river valley. Will focus the best rainfall amounts over the eastern sections of SE TX of 1-2 inches with lower amounts to the SW where it is much more in question on if thunderstorms will be able to develop due to the capping aloft. The higher rainfall amounts will likely focus on the more critical river systems still in flood from the early March flood event…the Sabine and Trinity basins. Rainfall this week will likely slow ongoing recessions on these basins and potentially lead to new rises.

[unome]

SPC updated day-2 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 9272616176

SPC AC 291711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS/AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT MID-MO VALLEY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. INITIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL TRANSPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE VALLEY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY
REGION. A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEB WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

...EASTERN OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY --
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE
ONGOING 12Z/WED ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX INTO SW MO. WEAK TO MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP RESIDUAL EML...AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEMI ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE SPORADIC
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS -- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...

THE BREADTH OF MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK/TX...AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADEQUATE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO WESTERN AR/LA IS EXPECTED. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TO ROUGHLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS
THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AND AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER KS AND THE MID-MO
VALLEY...WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND STRONGER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR
MORE SUBTLE FORCING. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN NEB/KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO.

THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MIN IN ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS/NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
AR/LA. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL HAZARD
TYPES BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GIVEN DISPARITY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...IN ADDITION TO
ADDED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION...NO UPGRADES WILL BE
MADE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...ARKLAMISS REGION -- OVERNIGHT...

STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AS THEY TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION. STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..LEITMAN.. 03/29/2016

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[Andrew]

Largest lift still remains off to the north and northeast for tomorrows storm event. I suspect the added cloud cover that has been so present today will only help to limit things tomorrow. One thing that is interesting though is how much moisture is present out there, been a pretty steady stream of mist/ light rain for much of the day.