February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

[wxman57]

Possibly a couple of light freezes across Houston next week, according to this morning's GFS run. Not much precip, though. Nice weekend ahead, particularly Saturday. Clouds return Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of day to day volatility even with the ECMWF-EPS. Mike Ventrice sent out this tweet early this afternoon.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
ECMWF EPS really struggling with the 11-15 day pattern. Yesterday's 12Z temperature changes compared to today's run.

Yesterday:

Today:

[harpman]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actually occurs in the days ahead with the AO, placement of the Western Ridge (PNA) as well as many other indicators that appear to be happening. Do I think we are going to see a major Arctic outbreak? Probably not. Do I believe that winter is done for our Region? It's way too soon to cancel winter on January 28th, in my humble opinion. We've seen time and time again that nature will do what it wants to do. Part of the challenge is to recognize various indications and explain them in a fashion that folks can understand. We live on a complex planet where 70% of the surface is water. From my standpoint, the fluid motion of the atmosphere is fascinating and keeps this crazy passion alive for this pushing 60 year old mind.

[harpman]

Can you let us know what this means? Thanks!

Basically we are seeing a lot of run to run volatility in the longer range guidance. Some of that volatility may be related to the various Hemispheric phenomena developing such as Polar Stratospheric Warming as well as other indices related to what actually occurs in the days ahead with the AO, placement of the Western Ridge (PNA) as well as many other indicators that appear to be happening. Do I think we are going to see a major Arctic outbreak? Probably not. Do I believe that winter is done for our Region? It's way too soon to cancel winter on January 28th, in my humble opinion. We've seen time and time again that nature will do what it wants to do. Part of the challenge is to recognize various indications and explain them in a fashion that folks can understand. We live on a complex planet where 70% of the surface is water. From my standpoint, the fluid motion of the atmosphere is fascinating and keeps this crazy passion alive for this pushing 60 year old mind.

Thank you very much.

[Katdaddy]

Beautiful mostly sunny and warm weather to end the last weekend of Jan 2016 across SE TX. Lots of sun and highs in the low to mid 70s through the weekend. The big weather story early next week with be a significant severe weather event across the Deep South. W TN, N MS, and N AL are in a 30% risk area for next Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a powerful Southern Rockies/Plains storm system early to mid next week. It's looking like a good possibility of much colder air filtering down from Canada arriving Tuesday with temperatures for morning lows in the upper 20's/low 30's likely Thursday and Friday mornings next week. The extended range ensembles are advertising some mighty chilly air settling across North America, East of the Continental Divide around the 9th/11th of February timeframe. There are increasing chances of a Polar Vortex split during that time period suggesting the ' coldest air' across the Northern Hemisphere may be on our side of the World. We will see.

gfs-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_48.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_48.png

[srainhoutx]

The Friday afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs have been issued. Looking like the 'coldest' air is situated over our Region and it looks dry.

[snowman65]

I see all of this talk about the extended cool/cold weather for our part of the country, until the April timeframe even.....my question is.....what IF the groundhog does not see his shadow??? That throws a wrench into the entire thing....weather followers will be in a quandry for sure....

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a powerful Southern Rockies/Plains storm system early to mid next week. It's looking like a good possibility of much colder air filtering down from Canada arriving Tuesday with temperatures for morning lows in the upper 20's/low 30's likely Thursday and Friday mornings next week. The extended range ensembles are advertising some mighty chilly air settling across North America, East of the Continental Divide around the 9th/11th of February timeframe. There are increasing chances of a Polar Vortex split during that time period suggesting the ' coldest air' across the Northern Hemisphere may be on our side of the World. We will see.

gfs-ens_z500a_sd_nhem_48.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_48.png

Bastardi's nearly beside himself.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5h5 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Major arctic outbreak will engulf much of nation between rockies and Appalachians Feb 5-20. Likely coldest 2 weeks of winter

[wxman57]

What all this means is that we could see a low in the upper 20s around the 11th-12th of February. The pattern doesn't look like it would support precipitation in the cold air.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ensembles and Teleconnection Indices are suggesting a colder regime may well become established near the mid February timeframe. The ECMWF Seasonal Ensembles continue to suggest the MJO may return to a more amplified orbit as the month of February begins. As wxman57 stated, we may not see much in the way of moisture when the coldest air arrives, but there are uncertainties in the extended range that we just cannot predict beyond 3 to 5 days when the Hemispheric Pattern is reshuffling. Some of the operational and ensemble guidance do indicate the potential of a Coastal wave developing as the coldest air pushes South out of the Plains, but that is way out in the future to accurately predict regarding our sensible weather for February 8th and beyond.

[srainhoutx]

Mike Ventrice just sent out a couple of tweets:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 25m25 minutes ago
Time to get PUMPED for Winter. BIG, sustainable cold wave coming in February. That 2nd week... CONUS wide cold

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 13m13 minutes ago
Ridge to build from California up to the N. Pole and into Greenland. This will open the arctic gates for brutal cold

[BiggieSmalls]

Are we talking teens in DFW, mid 20s in Houston if this pans out?

[srainhoutx]

Are we talking teens in DFW, mid 20s in Houston if this pans out?

The 00Z GFS was suggesting mid 20's for DFW, Mid/Upper 20's of Austin and Upper 20's for IAH. Still too far out to know exactly what our sensible weather will be though.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GEFS suggests cold air building across the Plains from Canada with a rather deep SW to NE cold upper trough overhead after the cold air arrives. The GFS ensemble members are suggesting a rather noisy sub tropical jet could be overhead during that timeframe with perhaps a bit of moisture. Too soon to know what the sensible weather with be more than 10 days out, but the Global Ensembles have been advertising this potential for several days, so it will be interesting to monitor as we move into the next week timeframe. Get out and enjoy the warm weather while we have it. I definitely looks like some chilly air is heading our way mid next week and possibly into mid February.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.

[harpman]

The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.

01302016 12Z Euro 240 sfcmslpna.png

01302016 12Z Euro 240 500hcfsranomna.png

01302016 12Z Euro 240 850tcfsranomna.png

Does this cold air move east into Louisiana? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF is looking very similar to the GEFS around the 240 hour timeframe. A deep cold upper Western trough with a potent storm digging into Northern Mexico with a good shot of cold air moving South out of the Plains into Texas.


Does this cold air move east into Louisiana? Thanks.

It appears that it will, IF the longer range guidance is correct.

[harpman]

Thank you for your response. I follow your forum all the time from SE La.