January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[Kevin Queen]

Bastardi still preaching cold getting colder...by mid month we will be much colder with an active sub-trop jet turning things nasty for the south. Seems to be a fairly wide felt opinion of our weather to come. He has drawn comparisons to 1997 as things make s move to get going in the last half of January through Febuary even extending well into March. Not real sure of the significance of 1997...I have not looked back at records for that year and I have slept since then. I'm sure their is somebody on this forum that can opine. This weather community is like a weather Google machine! Lol

January 12/13, 1997 brought a significant ice storm across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. The synoptic set up for the event started with a warm January 1st and 2nd followed by an Arctic Front around the 5th, if I recall correctly. A cold rain set in around the 8th and chilled the ground temperatures to around 40F. A robust upper air disturbance moved across Central Texas and wet bulbing brought sleet to College Station and Houston. Freezing rain developed from College Station to Houston on the 12th spreading E into Beaumont and Lake Charles. Light freezing rain continued into the 13th before drying out. I recall extensive power outages across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center does show January 12, 1997 as the second Analog date in the Day 11+ Analogs. I also see January 1985 and January 1994 in those analog synoptic upper air patterns.

A quick look at the Teleconnection Indices as well as the Sudden Stratospheric Warming guidance as well as the MJO Phase 7/8 progression suggest the pattern may well be conducive for cold and wet weather across the Region. The 12Z ECMWF seem to also suggest a split of the Polar Vortex occurring as we near the 8th/10th timeframe. We will see if the pattern does indeed deliver a Wintry Pattern for our Region.

12292015 CPC Day 11+ 814analog_off.gif

12292015 Tele Indices 4panel.png

12292015 AO ao_sprd2.gif

12292015 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

12292015 12Z Euro 240 ecmwf_z500a_sd_nhem_11.png

12292015 2030Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

You think we're going to get an ice storm this January, friend?

[Ptarmigan]

January 12/13, 1997 brought a significant ice storm across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. The synoptic set up for the event started with a warm January 1st and 2nd followed by an Arctic Front around the 5th, if I recall correctly. A cold rain set in around the 8th and chilled the ground temperatures to around 40F. A robust upper air disturbance moved across Central Texas and wet bulbing brought sleet to College Station and Houston. Freezing rain developed from College Station to Houston on the 12th spreading E into Beaumont and Lake Charles. Light freezing rain continued into the 13th before drying out. I recall extensive power outages across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center does show January 12, 1997 as the second Analog date in the Day 11+ Analogs. I also see January 1985 and January 1994 in those analog synoptic upper air patterns.

A quick look at the Teleconnection Indices as well as the Sudden Stratospheric Warming guidance as well as the MJO Phase 7/8 progression suggest the pattern may well be conducive for cold and wet weather across the Region. The 12Z ECMWF seem to also suggest a split of the Polar Vortex occurring as we near the 8th/10th timeframe. We will see if the pattern does indeed deliver a Wintry Pattern for our Region.

I remember hearing thunder during the January 1997 ice storm. That is really rare.

[Kevin Queen]

January 12/13, 1997 brought a significant ice storm across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. The synoptic set up for the event started with a warm January 1st and 2nd followed by an Arctic Front around the 5th, if I recall correctly. A cold rain set in around the 8th and chilled the ground temperatures to around 40F. A robust upper air disturbance moved across Central Texas and wet bulbing brought sleet to College Station and Houston. Freezing rain developed from College Station to Houston on the 12th spreading E into Beaumont and Lake Charles. Light freezing rain continued into the 13th before drying out. I recall extensive power outages across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center does show January 12, 1997 as the second Analog date in the Day 11+ Analogs. I also see January 1985 and January 1994 in those analog synoptic upper air patterns.

A quick look at the Teleconnection Indices as well as the Sudden Stratospheric Warming guidance as well as the MJO Phase 7/8 progression suggest the pattern may well be conducive for cold and wet weather across the Region. The 12Z ECMWF seem to also suggest a split of the Polar Vortex occurring as we near the 8th/10th timeframe. We will see if the pattern does indeed deliver a Wintry Pattern for our Region.

I remember hearing thunder during the January 1997 ice storm.

Yep. I heard it too. Been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

[DoctorMu]

1.5 in of rain IMBY from 7/1/15 - 10/21/15

27.15 in of rain from 10/22/15 - 12/29/15

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a chilly and wet start of the New Year with a rumble or two of thunder as a couple of upper air disturbances move out of Mexico. SE New Mexico and West Texas accumulate some light snow and perhaps a wintry mix of cold rain/sleet possibly mixed with a flake or two of snow across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country to just S of Dallas and possibly rain mixed with a sleet pellet or two near the College Station to Crockett line, but that probability seem rather low (less than 10%) as of this morning for the Northern portions of SE Texas. The sub tropical jet remains noisy overhead with little if any sunshine as the first week of January begins.

The attachment p168i (6).gif is no longer available

[unome]

NWS San Antonio mentions it in their long term forecast

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/statu ... 1128493056

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

.long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
isentropic lift strengthens new years eve (thursday night) into new years day (friday) as slightly more energetic shortwaves move over texas in the subtropical jet while surface ridging builds into south central texas. rain becomes more widespread. cold advection with the surface ridge will cause temperatures to dip to near or below freezing across the hill country into central texas friday and saturday nights... then only rise a bit above freezing saturday. forecast soundings for the edwards plateau across the hill country into central texas show precipitation developing as snow aloft... then melting in fairly deep layer above freezing... then refreezing into sleet as a deep enough subfreezing layer is indicated just above the surface. have continued sleet mention for friday night through saturday night for this area. only area to show any potential for snow is the edwards plateau where temperatures may remain below freezing... except at the surface. have kept snow out of the forecast... however... as there is much uncertainty. shortwaves move east of our area by sunday with brief mid level ridging bringing drier air ending rain with fair weather into monday. an upper level trough approaches leading to chances of showers along the rio grande monday night... then spreading to the remainder of south central texas on tuesday. temperatures will average below to well below normal.

their "weather story" & some others can be found easily here: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/

[wxman57]

Just FYI if you go to weatherbell.com you can look at Joe Bastardi's video and his explanation of connection in the coming days...this is a set up of types because I really need one of you guys to watch it and explain. I understand some but he gets pretty scientific...in specific I just wanted to know the difference between what he is discussing and cross polar flow???? Maybe one of you guys will have few minutes later on. Thanks a million!

Hi Big Thicket,

I'm not sure which Bastardi video you're referring to. I'm currently watching his rather lengthy video recorded last Saturday. When I mention "cross-Polar flow", I'm alluding to the source region of the air in northern and western Canada. This is where the cold fronts that eventually reach Texas come from. When northern Canada is fed by flow coming from northern Sibera (cross-Polar flow), the temperatures in Canada can get extremely cold. This cold air eventually makes its way south to Texas.

However, lacking the cross-Polar flow, the air in Canada comes more from the Pacific Ocean, meaning temperatures in Canada are often warmer than normal. That's what Joe is saying in his video - that temperatures in Canada may be a little above normal but temperatures across the U.S. will be below normal due primarily to increased storminess and precipitation. This is typical of strong El Nino winters.

I see Joe is talking about long-range signs of an Arctic air outbreak, but the pattern he's discussing would shunt the Arctic air across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley and East U.S. Coast rather than south to the Gulf Coast. We'll get some of that colder air at times, which could lead to one or more ice events in the Houston area.

[BigThicket]

10-4...I understand, thanks for taking the time to explain. Trying to learn more and more about weather and atmospheric science but sometimes it seems to all run together. I actually took a course in college about the atmosphere and though some things stuck a lot of others did not...I wish now I would have paid closer attention and not just crammed for the test! Lol...oh well as they say hind sight is 29/20.

[wxman57]

They say something like that about hindsight...

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs and discussion:
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 13 2016

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT OF 6-10 DAY PERIOD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTING IN THE TROUGHS SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT TO THE WEST COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE
EAST, BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST
GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. CONVERSELY, BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

[wxman57]

Looks cold and wet over the next 5 days. Highs in the 40s around New Year's. Gradual warming trend after this weekend. No sign of a first freeze through at least the 15th of January.

[BigThicket]

The Natural Gas markets rallied after the lastest Euro ensembles run showing the...warmth leading to blocking and cold heads south. The Canadian looks cold as well but the Euro was center much more south...now that being said, I'm obviously just repeating what I have read as I am no professional. But a 35% rally on Natural Gas after these ensemble runs is very interesting indeed!

[BlueJay]

I know some of you may disagree, but I think it is cold enough already. I'm not looking forward to the possible bunch of freezing/ice days ahead. Spring will be here soon...

[srainhoutx]

Not sure what got into the 18Z GFS, but it suddenly increases the wintry mix over the Hill Country. And the very long range is a complete flip to very cold Arctic front racing out of Western Canada into the Plains.

[Kevin Queen]

Just FYI if you go to weatherbell.com you can look at Joe Bastardi's video and his explanation of connection in the coming days...this is a set up of types because I really need one of you guys to watch it and explain. I understand some but he gets pretty scientific...in specific I just wanted to know the difference between what he is discussing and cross polar flow???? Maybe one of you guys will have few minutes later on. Thanks a million!

Hi Big Thicket,

I'm not sure which Bastardi video you're referring to. I'm currently watching his rather lengthy video recorded last Saturday. When I mention "cross-Polar flow", I'm alluding to the source region of the air in northern and western Canada. This is where the cold fronts that eventually reach Texas come from. When northern Canada is fed by flow coming from northern Sibera (cross-Polar flow), the temperatures in Canada can get extremely cold. This cold air eventually makes its way south to Texas.

However, lacking the cross-Polar flow, the air in Canada comes more from the Pacific Ocean, meaning temperatures in Canada are often warmer than normal. That's what Joe is saying in his video - that temperatures in Canada may be a little above normal but temperatures across the U.S. will be below normal due primarily to increased storminess and precipitation. This is typical of strong El Nino winters.

I see Joe is talking about long-range signs of an Arctic air outbreak, but the pattern he's discussing would shunt the Arctic air across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley and East U.S. Coast rather than south to the Gulf Coast. We'll get some of that colder air at times, which could lead to one or more ice events in the Houston area.

Hope you're not talking about anything like that '97 ice storm like we were discussing yesterday. Hey, when d'ye think we'll see our first ice on the roads, huh?

[BigThicket]

Not sure what got into the 18Z GFS, but it suddenly increases the wintry mix over the Hill Country. And the very long range is a complete flip to very cold Arctic front racing out of Western Canada into the Plains.

I have not actually seen the Euro: is it in line with the GFS?

[Kevin Queen]

Chew toy for your mind, y'all.


Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 05 - 09, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 07 - 13, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 30, 2015




PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 30 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 09 2016

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS
COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, AND GFS DUE
TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW
CLOSELY THE PREDICTED PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEAN
RIDGE PREDICTED NEAR WESTERN CANADA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PREDICTED THE MEAN RIDGE NEAR WESTERN CANADA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 13 2016

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT OF 6-10 DAY PERIOD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTING IN THE TROUGHS SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT TO THE WEST COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE
EAST, BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST
GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. CONVERSELY, BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19821226 - 19731225 - 19841231 - 19971223 - 20010113


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19821226 - 19841231 - 19731224 - 19971222 - 20010112


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 09 2016

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 13 2016

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N

LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.


Strange how there's no mention of any Arctic air masses or ice storms on tap for Texas. Ciao, y'all.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks cold and wet over the next 5 days. Highs in the 40s around New Year's. Gradual warming trend after this weekend. No sign of a first freeze through at least the 15th of January.

Not going to put much stock in long term forecasts.

Having no freezes in Houston is rare, but not unheard of. The Winter of 1930-1931, Houston Weather Bureau did not record any freezing temperature that time! It came close. 1930-1931 was an El Nino.

Sometimes, first freezing temperature is not seen as late as January or even in March like in 1931-1932 Winter. It snowed in March 10-11, 1932.

[Ptarmigan]

Chew toy for your mind, y'all.


Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 05 - 09, 2016 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 07 - 13, 2016 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 30, 2015




PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED DECEMBER 30 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 09 2016

TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS
COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, AND GFS DUE
TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW
CLOSELY THE PREDICTED PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEAN
RIDGE PREDICTED NEAR WESTERN CANADA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PREDICTED THE MEAN RIDGE NEAR WESTERN CANADA.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 13 2016

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
FORECAST DOMAIN IS SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THAT OF 6-10 DAY PERIOD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTING IN THE TROUGHS SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT TO THE WEST COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. FARTHER TO THE
EAST, BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND GEFS REFORECAST
GUIDANCE FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. CONVERSELY, BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN CONUS TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREDICTED MEAN STORM TRACK. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED RIDGING.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19821226 - 19731225 - 19841231 - 19971223 - 20010113


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19821226 - 19841231 - 19731224 - 19971222 - 20010112


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 09 2016

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 13 2016

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B B NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N

LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.


Strange how there's no mention of any Arctic air masses or ice storms on tap for Texas. Ciao, y'all.

The 1984 analog date had a freeze in January 1985. It was an epic freeze. Another freeze came in February 1985.

[Kevin Queen]

[/quote] The 1984 analog date had a freeze in January 1985. It was an epic freeze. Another freeze came in February 1985.[/quote]

They also have 1982 & 2001 as analogs. What can you tell me about those?