January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[BigThicket]

Yep...it works

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ary-2-2016

[DoctorMu]

I disagree...I think the industries best can have a pretty good handle on things 10 days out...not perfect by any means but certainly not wish casting, no disrespect JMO. Another run...Euro and Canadian look alike for mid Jan and the US model is lost.

Quantitatively, 5 day forecasts are pretty good. 10 day...not so much.





Having said that since multiple models are pointing toward a colder than average last half of January, it could happen. Could hazard a guess on frosted based upon averages, predicted deviations from mean average, projected diurnal variation, etc.

Time of the year makes a difference - forecasts this time of year are far more challenging than in summer, when Arnold the pig or a blind chimp with darts could get close to the daily high for CLL in mid-July.

[BigThicket]

That's funny right there...I don't care who you are! Lmbo

[Ounce]

I disagree...I think the industries best can have a pretty good handle on things 10 days out...not perfect by any means but certainly not wish casting, no disrespect JMO. Another run...Euro and Canadian look alike for mid Jan and the US model is lost.

Time of the year makes a difference - forecasts this time of year are far more challenging than in summer, when Arnold the pig or a blind chimp with darts could get close to the daily high for CLL in mid-July.

Have to start slow with the new A&M summer freshman, don't you know.

[BigThicket]

Now GFS comes in cold mid month...cold on cold...big flip taking place. I think the wheels are in motion to move to major cold. Everything seems to be lining up. At least it seems that way...Did anyone watch the video Bastardi put out; if so what's the thoughts on his position?

[BigThicket]

GFS ensemble now cold day 14 coast to coast...US model now cold and getting deeper still behind the Euro and Canadian but now picking up the cold sent. Heck this pattern shift is big and such a challenge to understand but very interesting to say the least. Maybe some of the Pro Mets can put it all together and help clarify all this massive amount of info.

[redneckweather]

Ok, a bit confused here. I saw the Bastardi video, read what everyone is saying about the cold coming but every post I see by wxman says the same ol same ol is in the extended?? Just regular cool gloomy weather. So which one is it?

[srainhoutx]

The next 7 days appear to bring a series of 4 very progressive fast moving shortwave troughs across our Region. The shortwave next weekend appears to be the most Southern tracking storm system with much colder air building into the Plains. Temperatures may near 70 late this week before this southern tracking storm passes. Mid week could offer some elevated storms as that storm tracks NE across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes and New England. Rounds of much needed moisture look to impact California with the active split flow over the NE Pacific.

Changes are lurking just beyond next weekend as a Western Ridge builds and a significant trough sets up along and East of the Continental Divide.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EST SUN JAN 03 2016

VALID 12Z WED JAN 06 2016 - 12Z SUN JAN 10 2016

...OVERVIEW...

HEMISPHERIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE LARGE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR BANKS ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH
A WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES FROM THE PACIFIC
THROUGH THE CONUS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND EUROPE. THE FORECAST
SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL MULTIPLE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST
COAST IN CA AND THEN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, A MORE FULL-LATITUDE MID-UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALONG 130W. THIS
COULD SET UP A DECENT COLD SHOT INTO THE CENTRAL AND PERHAPS
EASTERN STATES AFTER SUN JAN 10.

...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/WPC PREFERENCES...

PATTERN IS PROBABLY TOO CHAOTIC AT THE MESOSCALE-ALPHA WAVELENGTH
TO BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, SO A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE
BLEND CONTINUES TO BE A PATH OF LEAST REGRET. LATEST GFS/GEFS AND
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN RUNS WERE AGAIN 'GOOD/CLOSE ENOUGH' THROUGH NEXT
SUN/D7. TREND OVER THE PAST 36HRS OR SO HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW TO HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. AGAIN, DETAILS ARE A BIT BLURRY GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONTINUITY BUT THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS ARE TELLING.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO VALUES OUTSIDE
THE WEST, WHICH WILL HAVE COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS BUT MINS
CLOSER TO AVERAGE THANKS TO OODLES OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ALONG THE STORM TRACK FROM CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ALONG/EAST OF 90W BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SNOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD PER THE LATEST TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE -- MAINLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES.


FRACASSO

[srainhoutx]

A quick update regarding the Teleconnection Indices and the Polar Vortex split. As you will recall during our warm December the Polar Vortex was situated over the North Pole. As of yesterday the split of the Polar Vortex across the North Pole was completed. The longer range guidance suggest that one Vortex will develop on our side of the Globe near Hudson Bay, with a secondary Vortex over Siberia.

The attachment 01032016 00Z Euro ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png is no longer available

The attachment 01032016 06Z GFS 216 gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_37.png is no longer available

The Arctic Oscillation has dipped well into the negative territory as of today and the ensembles suggest this negative AO will continue and could be rather strong. The Pacific North Atlantic (PNA) remains in a robust positive phase suggesting a big West Coast Ridge builds well into the Arctic Circle. The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is also in the negative territory and looks to remain there for the foreseeable future. There are also indications the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) will remain neutral to negative. The North Atlantic Oscillation is trending toward a neutral to slightly negative state as well. Typically when we see all these Indices align in this fashion, it suggests the possibility of a Blocking Regime which favors colder than normal temperatures for our part of the World. With the Madden/Julian Oscillation steadily headed toward Phase 8 which brings a wet pattern to the Eastern Pacific into the Gulf and Caribbean Sea, all of the indicators are moving toward a rather chilly and unsettled pattern particularly across the Gulf Coast and possibly up the Eastern Sea Board. While I do not see a bitter cold Arctic Outbreak at this time for Texas and our surrounding Region, there certainly are a lot of signals suggesting the possibility of wintry weather potential as we get deeper into January. That said I will not forecast or 'predict' any winter weather. I leave that to the Professionals. Personally, I am not a big fan of cold weather unless it is in the Mountains where it belongs! But the kid in me and I know wxman57 feels the same...if we are going to get cold weather...let it snow! None of this cold, dreary, drizzly rain with gloomy days that seem to never end...

[Portastorm]

Wonderfully informative post above srain ... thank you! You did a superb job of taking complex information and boiling it down to a level we all can understand. It does appear that many of the atmospheric indices are pointing towards a cold and stormy period for Texas from mid month on.

I'm with you ... I tire of the cold fairly quickly. If it's going to be that cold, it might as well snow or sleet on us!

[BigThicket]

Yes...nice piece Mr. Srain...make sense of a great deal that I have been looking at over the past 24 hours. #myheadhurts! LOL

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Antonio/Austin providing some 'hints' in their longer range discussion of what may be ahead around the mid January timeframe...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER AIR AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
CLOUDCOVER OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA CLEAR BY MID-EVENING.
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THUS EXPECT LOW TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE MID 30S SOUTH. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW
HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE THIS YEAR...SO NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING.
MONDAY WILL HAVE SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...AS
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...INITIALLY RESULTING IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...RESULTING
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. NONE OF THESE
ARE DEEP...AND THEY ARE MOVING SO FAST THAT NEITHER EXTENSIVE
WARM OR COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING
WILL BRING MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. WHILE SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BEGINS TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE DEEPEST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SMALL
AREAS OF CAPE...SO WE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING DRY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...LONGER RANGE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATORS SUCH AS CROSS-POLAR FLOW ARE ALIGNING FOR
AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK IN THE JANUARY 12-16TH PERIOD. AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE...THE BEST ADVICE IS TO TAKE CARE OF OUTDOOR WORK
THIS COMING WEEK AND EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

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ECMWF Ensemble:

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GEFS:

[BigThicket]

Looks like the Dominos are lining up for a big slap down!

[wxman57]

Looks like the Dominos are lining up for a big slap down!

Not a big one, but perhaps the first freeze of the winter.

[Katdaddy]

It was very nice to see the sunny skies this afternoon with the low 60s.

[unome]

It was very nice to see the sunny skies this afternoon with the low 60s.

it was very nice to see & feel the sun

[Ptarmigan]

NWS San Antonio/Austin providing some 'hints' in their longer range discussion of what may be ahead around the mid January timeframe...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER AIR AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
CLOUDCOVER OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA CLEAR BY MID-EVENING.
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THUS EXPECT LOW TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE MID 30S SOUTH. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING OR BELOW
HAVE ALREADY HAD A FREEZE THIS YEAR...SO NO NEED FOR A FREEZE WARNING.
MONDAY WILL HAVE SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY DESPITE CLEAR SKIES...AS
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE SIMILAR
TEMPS TO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...INITIALLY RESULTING IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...RESULTING
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. NONE OF THESE
ARE DEEP...AND THEY ARE MOVING SO FAST THAT NEITHER EXTENSIVE
WARM OR COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING AND MOISTENING
WILL BRING MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. WHILE SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BEGINS TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE DEEPEST TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SMALL
AREAS OF CAPE...SO WE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND FRIDAY REMAINING DRY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BRING LOW POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...LONGER RANGE MODELS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATORS SUCH AS CROSS-POLAR FLOW ARE ALIGNING FOR
AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK IN THE JANUARY 12-16TH PERIOD. AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE...THE BEST ADVICE IS TO TAKE CARE OF OUTDOOR WORK
THIS COMING WEEK AND EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

Some of the analog dates really stand out like 1966, 1977, 1978, 1985, 1997, and 2001.

1966-Freeze in 1/28-29.
1977-Second coldest January. Lows of 18°F on 1/10 and 1/19. Freezing rain on 1/2.
1978-Coldest January on record. No teens, but 20 days of 32°F or lower for that month. Snow fell on 1/19-20. Freezing rain on 1/21-22.
1985-Multiple freezes from Polar Vortex. Low of 16°F on 1/21. Snow fell on 1/2 and 2/1. Freezing rain on 1/3, 1/12-13, and 1/31-2/1.
1995-Trace of snow falls on 1/2.
1997-Freeze and Ice storm on 1/12-13.
2001-Freeze hits on 1/2-4/2002. Low of 23°F on 1/4.

[Karen]

Katdaddy I love jogging on that path. I am hopping for the 17th cold but dry not precip during the marathon. Icing could be interesting.

[BigThicket]

I can't help to think that when it gets cold and builds cold on cold that we are gonna be colder than just a light freeze. I am no pro and not even an amateur weather guy...but I do look and read through several opinions and the net formulation is it is gonna turn significantly colder and stay that way thru March. Yes I'm sure we will see slight warm ups and sun but overall much colder and continued above normal precipitation. Of course the focus in Winter is always the Northeast due to mass population, but I think we will see an event or two and I hope it's not ice like 97

[Katdaddy]

Its chilly morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s under fair skies. Sunny to partly sunny skies today and tomorrow before rain chances arrive ahead of the next few upper level troughs Tuesday night through Thursday. Still awaiting significant cold weather. Perhaps later this month.