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December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record
Posted: Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:41 pm
by ticka1
Will winter arrive on schedule? Or will we continue the "Stepping Down" pattern? Bringing another year to close for us here at KHOU weather forum.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:45 am
by srainhoutx
The Updated Experimental Climate Prediction Center Week 3 to Week 4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlook that carries us into Mid December suggests cold and wet will be the theme across our Region.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2015 1:25 pm
by srainhoutx
We are beginning to see some solutions in the Long Range guidance suggesting a much further South tracking storm system with a vigorous cold core upper low transitioning across Mexico and the Southern half of Texas. This feature appears to possibly have some impressive dynamics and could bring a real threat of Wintry Weather across portions of Texas and possibly into Louisiana.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2015 6:05 pm
by srainhoutx
The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8+ Outlook suggests our Region will be cold wet.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:57 am
by srainhoutx
The Friday Update from the Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 and Week 4 Outlook continues to advertise a typical El Nino Pattern across our Region with a chilly and unsettled weather regime. The ensembles suggest that a progressive split flow pattern with frequent upper troughs moving across the Region tapping into Eastern Pacific moisture.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 1:06 pm
by wxman57
If you've liked today's weather you'll really love tomorrow's - low to mid 50s and steady light rain.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 1:15 pm
by cperk
wxman57 wrote:If you've liked today's weather you'll really love tomorrow's - low to mid 50s and steady light rain.
I like.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 1:46 pm
by Katdaddy
Can we bring back Summer?! However if it must be cold then it better snow or back to the 90s.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:09 pm
by srainhoutx
Not sure we will actually see much sunshine the first few days of December. Looks like more chilly, raw and wet weather may be ahead as yet another upper air disturbance traverses across the Desert SW into Texas mid to late week.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:39 pm
by ticka1
bring on the COLD...enough of this heat!!!
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:35 pm
by Katdaddy
A messy SW flow aloft continues while cold air at the surface filters S to the NW GOM. Light rains moving across SE TX this evening with temps in the 40s and 50s feeling like it should for this time of year even though I love the 90s.
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:38 am
by srainhoutx
Briefing from Jeff regarding Trinity and Brazos River Flooding:
Heavy rainfall over N TX over the last 3 days of 6-9 inches has led to major flooding on the East and West Forks of the Trinity River and a significant flood wave on the upper Brazos River.
At 912am this morning a levee on the Trinity River at Rosser breached in Kaufman County. The river at Rosser is 1 ft below record flood levels and widespread significant flooding is in progress over portions of Ellis and Kaufman Counties due to the levee breach and flooding of the mainstem river.
Trinity River:
Significant flood wave will move downstream over the next week reaching SE TX near Crockett late this week and Lake Livingston shortly after. Rises of the river to above flood stage are likely with moderate and possibly major flooding. Gate operations are ongoing at Lake Livingston with a current release of 15,000cfs and additional releases will be required.
Brazos River:
Flood wave is passing Glen Rose and moving downstream. Lake Granbury is currently releasing 42,000cfs. Downstream flood control lakes Whitney and Aquilla are just slightly into their flood pools and will be able to absorb the downstream moving flood wave. Releases on the Navasota River and from Lake Somerville along with upstream releases on the mainstem of the Brazos will lead to a significant rise in the lower Brazos River from Bryan to Richmond this week. At this time no locations below Waco are forecast to reach flood stage.
River Levels and Forecasts:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/
Re: December 2015 - Weather Outlook
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 5:30 am
by Katdaddy
Messy SW flow aloft continues with the next disturbance expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with additional rain chances. The sun finally returns Thursday through Saturday followed by increasing clouds ahead of the next storm system.
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:32 am
by srainhoutx
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:45 am
by Katdaddy
Deep WSW flow aloft will continue to bring disturbances across SE TX through tonight before decreasing clouds on Wednesday followed by sunny days Thursday through Saturday morning before increasing clouds begin to return followed low rain chances on Sunday.
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 3:24 pm
by GBinGrimes
This El Nino pattern is proving to be boring and miserable. I love living in the country but the county roads of gravel and caliche are a muckity-muck mess. At least we have several consecutive days of sunshine in the forecast (including Saturday...YAY!) and that will be VERY welcome.
Ready for something to buckle the Polar Vortex and send some "not sensible in the least" multiple blasts of arctic-ness down this direction.
The words learned from a family member long ago are so true, "what you want and what you get are two different things".
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:05 pm
by djjordan
Well this might give you some hope as we near Christmas.........
By the way this is just a discussion starter... Still too far away to predict this IMO
From our friend Eric Berger:
I'm going to get crucified for this because some people will look at this and say OMG HE PREDICTED A WHITE CHRISTMAS AND THEN IT DIDN'T HAPPEN. But here goes, anyway.
We're a long way out, but some of the seasonal modeling is suggesting temperatures will be quite a bit colder than normal during the Dec. 19-29th period. As in 8 to 10 degrees F colder than normal (see map). If we continue this wet fall/winter pattern at the time it's possible parts of Texas would see a white Christmas. Does that include Houston? Probably not. However it's certainly the region's best chance since that magical Christmas Eve in 2004.
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:18 pm
by BlueJay
I am ready for some SUNSHINE!
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:22 pm
by GBinGrimes
A glimmer of hope! Thanks for sharing DJ!
Re: December 2015 -Split Flow/Cool Progressive Patttern
Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:30 pm
by harpman
What's fun to see is that it spills over into Louisiana!