December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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mckinne63
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Just had some brief rain here in Stafford. Sun is out now. Very windy! I think this may do in the leaves on our bradford pear tree.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

HARRIS TX-
1215 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1214 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WESTBRANCH...OR OVER JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...EASTERN ADDICKS PARK
TEN...SPRING BRANCH WEST...SPLASHTOWN...WILLOWBROOK...CARVERDALE...
WESTBRANCH...HOOKS AIRPORT...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING AND
GREATER INWOOD.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Radar shows bands of strong thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the western half of SE TX.

Lead short wave combined with increasing moisture has certainly led to a rapid increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Low level jet continues to increase and latest radar profiler data from HGX shows fairly strong south winds just a couple thousand feet off the ground. Surface wind gusts have been running 30-40mph this afternoon outside of the showers and 40-55mph in the showers. Recent storms over NW Harris and central Montgomery Counties have shown some weak rotation.

Storms have also been good rainfall producers with rapid accumulations in training bands over our western counties of 1-2 inches especially in the Wharton to College Station corridor. Meso scale models have handled the developments well this afternoon and the latest HRRR keeps things going through the evening hours while a squall line develops out to the west and heads into the region early Sunday morning. Biggest threat will continue to be training of cells in SSW to NNE bands which will lead to rapid 1-2 inches of rainfall in an hour or less. A second more isolated threat is damaging winds and tornadoes with all the wind energy in place. Think the wind threat may increase some early this evening and again with the squall line overnight, but marginal instability will result in a very low threat.

See no reason to change rainfall totals at this point…could probably push them up a little bit over the western areas which have already picked up a solid 1-2 inches today and have several more hours of training rains to go. Will likely see a 6-7 inch amount somewhere in that Victoria to College Station corridor by the end over the event as this thus far has been the favored training area today and radar images SW of Victoria show some pretty good enhancements heading for that same general area.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Starting to see rotation with the cells developing across Western Harris and Montgomery Counties. Be aware of quick spin up tornadoes.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

GRIMES TX-WALKER TX-WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
422 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WALKER...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER...WESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CST...

AT 421 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MAGNOLIA...OR NEAR PINEHURST...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA...MONTGOMERY...STAGECOACH...TODD MISSION...
RICHARDS...DOBBIN...DACUS AND PLANTERSVILLE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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Wind Advisories in effect for the Upper TX Coast:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

.EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TXZ213-214-226-227-235>238-131200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0016.151213T0000Z-151213T1200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...
WHARTON...WINNIE
302 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY.

* EVENT...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* IMPACT...SOME OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD LIFT ANY OUTDOOR
SMALL LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS. SECURE THEM TO PREVENT ANY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING
ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
431 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

WALKER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
431 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CST...

AT 430 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKE CONROE DAM...OR 7 MILES WEST OF WILLIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...NEW
WAVERLY...MONTGOMERY...LAKE CONROE DAM...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK AND
CRABBS PRAIRIE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 437 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STAGECOACH...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PINEHURST...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEHURST...MAGNOLIA...MONTGOMERY...STAGECOACH...TODD MISSION...
LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN AND DACUS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
449 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 449 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CYPRESS...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF KATY...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CYPRESS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 500 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK...OR 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE AND CRABBS PRAIRIE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
505 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

MONTGOMERY TX-
505 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CST...

AT 504 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MONTGOMERY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTGOMERY AND DOBBIN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

MONTGOMERY TX-
518 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CST...

AT 517 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
PINEHURST...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN CONROE...WILLIS...THE WOODLANDS...PANORAMA VILLAGE AND LAKE
CONROE DAM.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

MADISON TX-WALKER TX-HOUSTON TX-
530 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALKER...SOUTHWESTERN
HOUSTON AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 529 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN HUNTSVILLE...AUSTONIO...LOVELADY AND CRABBS PRAIRIE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-
536 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BURLESON AND BRAZOS
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

AT 535 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SNOOK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLEGE STATION...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...SNOOK...KURTEN...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD
AND WELLBORN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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we lost power for a very brief time earlier this evening here in Cypress (maybe 2 minutes) but other than that there has been no warning on any of our cell phones (Verizon & AT&T) & also no warning on our cable tv (Comcast), though we had a show on via On Demand & not a network - I guess I'm glad nothing hit our direct area, but it sort of makes me worried about the overnight hours... especially that there was nothing on on cell phones. If I hadn't been making dinner I would have caught the warning on this forum at least !
srainhoutx wrote:BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
449 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 449 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CYPRESS...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF KATY...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CYPRESS.
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srainhoutx
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12122015 mcd2008.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST TX/EAST OK/WEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130009Z - 130145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EMBEDDED STRONG/MORE ROBUST CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF EAST TX INTO EASTERN OK AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF AR.
GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN RISKS...THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE MAY TEND TO
REMAIN LOW.

DISCUSSION...AT 2350Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ONGOING
100-MILE WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW DEEPER EMBEDDED CELLS
EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST TX
AND EASTERN OK. SOME OF THE DEEPER CELLS HAVE RESULTED IN BUOYANCY
EXTENDING TO LEVELS COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TX INTO OK/WRN AR
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE INTO MO BY LATE EVENING /TOWARD
06Z/. DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND
THERE MAY BE SOME SHORT-LIVED SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TO EAST TX
IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS
MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING...AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS HAVE HAD RECENT WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION IN SOUTHEAST OK. THE SUSTAINED DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH
ROTATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST OK AND FAR
WEST AR...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE NNE MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HEIGHT FALLS
INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING INTO EAST TX COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL MORE ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

..PETERS/HART.. 12/13/2015


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Tornado near Willis. Be aware of foul language...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tNr_ox7F0E
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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12122015 mcd0676.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0676
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 130010Z - 130500Z

SUMMARY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
TAPS INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX/FAR SOUTHEAST OK THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. FLASH FLOOD IS LIKELY IN THIS SETUP.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OK. THE TPW PRODUCT SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) STREAMING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF
AND NEARBY EASTERN PACIFIC ON A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW (PER
RECENT VWP). INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED IN THE FLOW IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS (AS SEEN ON THE KCRP 20Z RAOB)...WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 J/KG IN THE INFLOW ACROSS SOUTH TX.

LOCAL RADARS (SUCH AS KGRK AND KFWS) AND THE MOST RECENT MRMS
PASSES SUGGEST HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.50
INCHES...THOUGH GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX. ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT THE ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD ALLOW THESE VALUES TO DROP INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS GOOD HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL AGREEMENT THAT BANDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (BASED
ON THE KCRP SHOWING AND MLCAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS)...AND THIS COULD BECOME IMPORTANT WHEN ASSESSING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS THROUGH 13/05Z.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 22Z HRRR SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN TX IN A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND.
HOWEVER...THE 23Z HRRR (AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR) WERE NOT AS BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

AS THE HEAVY RAIN IS PLACE MOISTENS THE SOIL...THE MORE
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF THE CELLS IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS IS POSSIBLE AS THE ENTIRE AREA DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY INTO LATE EVENING...DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE AIR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cromagnum
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El Nunyo continues.

No cold weather.
No rain.
ticka1
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Cromagnum wrote:El Nunyo continues.

No cold weather.
No rain.
same for me on east side.
houstonia
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Wonderful crazy weather in Southwest Houston right now!! Wind, rain and cooling off... I love it!!
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