December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

[tireman4]

Humm.....Interesting set up. Could be interesting days ahead. Stay tuned folks..

[ticka1]

Humm.....Interesting set up. Could be interesting days ahead. Stay tuned folks..

explain for us novices

[wxman57]

Humm.....Interesting set up. Could be interesting days ahead. Stay tuned folks..

explain for us novices

He must be talking about the highs near 80 later this week.

The only other item of interest I see is that we may see our first freeze across Houston before Christmas. It's already overdue. I'm still thinking that we may see some issues with snow/ice down here come Jan/Feb (though I don't like it).

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance is slowly coming into agreement regarding the potent shortwave emerging out of the Southern Rockies on Saturday with leeside cyclone/frontogenesis developing across the Texas Panhandle Friday night into Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center as introduced an outlined area for portions of East Central, SE, E and NE Texas extending into to portions of Eastern Oklahoma and Western Louisiana for Saturday. More later on this developing potential severe weather episode as we get a bit closer.

DAY 5/SAT/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EAST/NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL AGREES WITH THE
TIMING OF A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. CAPE/SHEAR
PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES SUGGESTING BOTH A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR
PROBABILITIES FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z GEFS.

[Katdaddy]

Dense Fog Advisories for the SW portions of SE TX this morning. Expect some patchy fog across the Houston-Galveston Areas as well this morning. Continued warming temps and increasing moisture ahead of the next cold front this weekend. The SPC 5 day outlook has a 15% hatch area across the eastern half of TX. This morning's Hou-Gal AFD indicates the severe threat will be to the NE of SE TX. Several days of model runs to watch as we get closer to the weekend. Speaking of model runs, there has been talk of snow for Christmas across SE TX. 120 hours or 5 days is difficult enough to pin down details of an upcoming weather event and at 192 hours or 8 days you begin to enter the model "La-La Land" for any specifics. 3 days out with models indicating snow with the right pattern in place; then I might get excited. So don't get your hopes up just yet.

[srainhoutx]

Our weekend storm system looks to be the first in a series of potent storm systems crossing the Pacific and digging into the Desert SW/Intermountain West and moving out of the Southern/Central Rockies into the Plains. It appears we are indeed entering a very active weather pattern after almost a week of quiet weather and abundant sunshine across our Region. It appears that this active pattern may well continue as we head into the pre Christmas Holiday period.

[houstonia]

It's very smoky-smelling and hazy in downtown Houston this morning. I literally drove down into it when I exited 59. I know we have some fog in the air, but it smells particularly smoky as well. Are there still fires going on around SE Texas?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF continues to advertise a powerful storm system developing to our West late this week into the weekend. The Euro is suggesting a neutral tilted trough axis with impressive veering wind profiles at multiple levels as well as a very chilly cold core adding to the dynamics of the storm system as it moves ENE over the Red River Saturday night into early Sunday. The longer range European also advertises a rather strong shot of much colder air arriving around the 18th of December.

[jasons2k]

I hope it moves out by Sunday Morning - I am moving this Sunday!

[nuby3]

I hope it moves out by Sunday Morning - I am moving this Sunday!

I have a 50 mile trail race on Saturday. Likely going to get interesting there

[srainhoutx]

A weak shortwave continues to move East across the Plains allowing foggy conditions across the Region this morning. Clouds and fog should burn off later this morning as sunshine returns this afternoon. Changes are lurking to our NW as a strong storm system begins to drop SE into the Great Basin and temperatures rise to near record levels and a return flow off the Western Gulf as a well defined sub tropical shortwave organizes over Northern Mexico and New Mexico Friday.

As this shortwave and upper level trough digs further South, the low level jet increases off the Gulf as well as veering winds out of the SW with tropical moisture increasing from the Eastern Pacific spreading over Texas setting the stage for a severe weather episode Saturday extending into Sunday across the Eastern half of Texas and on East into Louisiana Sunday afternoon into early next Monday. It appears the main threat will be from a squall line with damaging straight line winds being the primary concern, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two if super cells develop ahead of the squall line. This severe weather episode could occur during the overnight hours of early Sunday across our Region, so we will need to monitor the future guidance, particularly the short range meso guidance as we get closer to the weekend.

DAY 4/SAT/...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE D3 /FOUR CORNERS/NORTHWEST MEXICO/
TROUGH AS IT UNDERGOES FURTHER DEEPENING ON SATURDAY...AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EACH MODEL CONTINUES TO
AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO EAST TX AND THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS A MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. SOME BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BENEATH INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL PROVE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL QLCS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST BOTH A TORNADO THREAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DAY 5/SUN/...DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...KINEMATICS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH AND
STRONG DPVA SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES IS A CONCERN FOR AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE VERTICALLY VEERING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...A
TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE QLCS.

[snowman65]

This is way long range forecasts are mostly for fun. This is for Dec 19. Done on Dec 5. If you look at it today for Dec 19 it's 35 deg warmer....

[srainhoutx]

This is way long range forecasts are mostly for fun. This is for Dec 19. Done on Dec 5. If you look at it today for Dec 19 it's 35 deg warmer....

Keep an eye on a bombing low near the Aleutian Islands around hour 90. Many will remember last year as Typhoon Nuri transitioned to extra tropical and bombed out near the Bering Sea setting the stage for a big pattern change to a much colder regime about a week after that big wound up cyclone headed toward the Arctic Circle.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

After several days of mainly clear conditions and mild temperatures…a strong system will approach the area this weekend.

Southerly flow has returned to the area which will lead to gradually warming dewpoints and overnight lows starting tonight and peaking Saturday. Normal low for this time of year is in the mid 40’s and by Saturday mornings lows will average 65-70 over the region. After highs both Thursday and Friday will also be very warm for early December standards running in the 78-82 degree range. Record highs may be reached or exceeded especially on Friday. Not expecting any rainfall tonight through Friday afternoon.

Upper level storm system drops into the SW US early this weekend and moves across TX Saturday into Sunday. Low level jet begins to crank up Friday night with speeds of 40-50kts by Saturday which will help draw moisture northward off the Gulf of Mexico. Large scale general lift increasing Saturday from both warm air advection pattern and upper level position of the trough and jet stream. Expect to see a gradual increase in showers across SE TX on Saturday…with maybe a few thunderstorms by Saturday evening. While low level shear profiles look favorable for severe weather, instability appears to be lacking at this time.

Cold front should cross the region between midnight and noon on Sunday with a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Still looking at lacking instability for severe storms, but favorable wind profiles could make up for a lack of energy. Main threat would be wind damage and a brief tornado if stronger storms do in fact develop.

Forecast models do show a good dump of high PW air into the region ahead of the front which will likely result in heavy rainfall especially with the stronger storms. Average amounts of 1-2 inches are most likely with higher amounts of 3-4 inches possible especially east of I-45. The area has had some time to dry out over the last 5-7 days which should allow some of this rainfall to be absorbed, however area rivers especially the Trinity and Brazos are still flow very high from the N TX rainfall over Thanksgiving and this additional rainfall will affect those basins. In fact flood control releases have begun on both the Brazos and Trinity basins to help build some buffer into the pool levels ahead of the upcoming rainfall event.

Post frontal air mass will return the area to near normal for this time of year of lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s by next Monday.

[BlueJay]

i am enjoying these lovely warm, sunny days ... while we have them.

[DoctorMu]

This is way long range forecasts are mostly for fun. This is for Dec 19. Done on Dec 5. If you look at it today for Dec 19 it's 35 deg warmer....

Keep an eye on a bombing low near the Aleutian Islands around hour 90. Many will remember last year as Typhoon Nuri transitioned to extra tropical and bombed out near the Bering Sea setting the stage for a big pattern change to a much colder regime about a week after that big wound up cyclone headed toward the Arctic Circle.

Hoping for some excitement. As of now, this strong El Nino is delivering more like El None-yo

[srainhoutx]

The Storm Prediction Center issues a Slight Risk for severe storms for Houston, Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth and Tulsa with their Day 3 Convective Outlook.(Saturday).

[Katdaddy]

Safe travels this morning. Another round of patchy dense fog this morning across S and SE TX.

[snowman65]

Keep an eye on a bombing low near the Aleutian Islands around hour 90. Many will remember last year as Typhoon Nuri transitioned to extra tropical and bombed out near the Bering Sea setting the stage for a big pattern change to a much colder regime about a week after that big wound up cyclone headed toward the Arctic Circle.[/quote]

Sorry but I have no idea how to read that chart

[Ounce]

I'll take a stab at trying to answer, snow. That Low pressure near the Aleutians has a very low barometric pressure (938 millibars), which is a pressure of a stout hurricane, if it was in tropical waters. The afternoon before Ike made landfall, it was 105 mph winds and an estimated pressure of 957 millibars. So the Low in the Aleutians is wound up pretty tight and can cause some headaches, as it moves. That's the best explanation I can give and I hope it's close to being decent.