November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[Andrew]

GFS is suggesting one hell of a system coming through the southern plains. A strong trough with multiple shortwaves rotating through looks to present a very wet beginning to next week. The GFS is even showing a possible severe event with EHI's in the 4-5 range. Of course this is all 5-6 days away, but we could see our first cold event of the year.

[Baseballdude2915]

Very thin but organized squall line headed towards metro in the next hour or two.
Surprising how well its held together for it being so thin. 10 degree drop with fropa.

[Ptarmigan]

GFS is suggesting one hell of a system coming through the southern plains. A strong trough with multiple shortwaves rotating through looks to present a very wet beginning to next week. The GFS is even showing a possible severe event with EHI's in the 4-5 range. Of course this is all 5-6 days away, but we could see our first cold event of the year.

Another flood event possible? November has had nasty weather, especially with El Nino.

[Ptarmigan]

DARK BLUE = I like!

Lower pressure means stormy weather.

[Andrew]

GFS is suggesting one hell of a system coming through the southern plains. A strong trough with multiple shortwaves rotating through looks to present a very wet beginning to next week. The GFS is even showing a possible severe event with EHI's in the 4-5 range. Of course this is all 5-6 days away, but we could see our first cold event of the year.

Another flood event possible? November has had nasty weather, especially with El Nino.

The possibility exists but there still remains a lot of questions as to how progressive the system will be and where everything sets up.

[Katdaddy]

Temps are cooling and light rains moving offshore as the front moves across the Upper TX Coast. Partly cloudy skies through Saturday afternoon before rain chances begin to increase Saturday night. Models continue to show a powerful upper level low moving across TX Monday and Tuesday with the potential of a severe weather event as well as a heavy rain event. The SPC has SE TX in the 15% hatch area for severe weather Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will follow the storm system next week.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a powerful negative tilted trough moving out of the Southern Rockies Sunday into Monday and marching across Texas and Louisiana into Tuesday. If these trends continue, except to see all modes of severe weather possible including a threat for super cells and a possible tornado risk across portions of Central, East, SE Texas extending into Louisiana next Monday into Tuesday.

In the wake of this powerful late Fall/early Winter storm, expect the coldest air of the Season to spread South all the way to the Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Stay tuned folks. This storm system has the potential to be a Major Weather event across the Region.

00Z Euro:

The attachment 11122015 00Z Euro f120.gif is no longer available

00Z GFS

[cperk]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a powerful negative tilted trough moving out of the Southern Rockies Sunday into Monday and marching across Texas and Louisiana into Tuesday. If these trends continue, except to see all modes of severe weather possible including a threat for super cells and a possible tornado risk across portions of Central, East, SE Texas extending into Louisiana next Monday into Tuesday.

In the wake of this powerful late Fall/early Winter storm, expect the coldest air of the Season to spread South all the way to the Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Stay tuned folks. This storm system has the potential to be a Major Weather event across the Region.

Sounds like some exciting days ahead.This may be a precursor of what's ahead for our winter weather.

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 15 2015 - 12Z THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NEXT TUE-WED...

...OVERVIEW...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE EAST COAST FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD --- PRODUCING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THAT
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL A DRY AND
RATHER MILD PATTERN BY MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS. THE WEATHER IN THE
WEST WILL HAVE AN UNUSUAL 'ALASKA' FEEL TO IT ... AND THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT ... MORE LIKE 'SPRING' WITH COOL
NIGHTS...MILD DAYS AND THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
'PACIFIC' FRONTS MIGRATING DOWNWIND OF THE ROCKIES.

A DEEP CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA (IN THE SHORT
TERM) WILL BE A MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURE OF THE LOWER 48'S
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DEPTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR --- WITH ORIGINS
IN NORTHEAST SIBERIA --- WILL BE TEMPORARILY LINKED WITH THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND NORTH AMERICA'S WEST CENTRAL COAST ---VIA A RATHER
PERSISTENT AND ACTIVE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 250MB JET AXIS. THIS
POLAR JET BEGINS TO CARVE OUT A DEEP 250MB TROUGH ON DAY 3 ALONG
THE WEST COAST --- AND MIGRATES THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH DAY 5
AND 6. IT'S EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN JET AXIS WITH
ORIGINS NEAR HAWAI'I --- SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR LARGE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS (DAYS 3-4) AND
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (DAY 5).

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
HAVING THE LUXURY OF WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PARTICULAR
SUB-968MB ALASKA CYCLONE LAST WEEK --- AND SEEING ITS RATHER DEEP
CENTER MIGRATING THIS MORNING --- TO A LOCATION VERY NEAR WHERE
THE ECMWF/GFS HAD IT 5-6 DAYS AGO... IT GIVES ME SOME CONFIDENCE
TO CONCLUDE WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. IN A WEAKENED
STATE --- OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY... IT'S
WHAT TRANSPIRES BEHIND IT AND WHERE THE TRAJECTORIES OF THE ARCTIC
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-AUTUMN SYSTEM ARE HEADING ... THAT
POINTS TO USING A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 11/12Z-12/00Z
GFS/ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. IN ADDITION... THESE PIECES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD BALANCE ---AND A SPLIT-FLOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST --- WITH A 100+ KT SUBTROPICAL SOUTHERN
JET AXIS EMERGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF HAWAI'I--- WITH AN ENTRY
POINT NEAR 30N 115W.

THIS 'SPLIT-FLOW' WILL NOT LAST LONG --- AND BY DAY 3 --- THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG THE WASHINGTON
AND OREGON COAST... AND WILL BLEND BOTH THE 12/00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THEIR MEANS FOR THE DAY 4-5 QPFS. BEYOND
18/00Z ... THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BECOME VERY
APPARENT --- AND VERY QUICKLY DO THE TWO JET STREAM DEVELOP A VERY
COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN NEAR THE OZARKS (AROUND 18/06Z).
AND THIS IS THE BEST DETAIL I CAN GIVE AT THIS POINT. USED A
11/12Z 70/30 ECENS/NAEFS BLEND FOR DAYS 6-7 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RATHER SHARP AMPLITUDE AND CHANGING CHARACTER OF THIS PARTICULAR
MIGRATORY 250MB PACIFIC TROUGH SEQUENCE.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS --- HOW FAR SOUTH AND
FOR HOW LONG --- THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
PACIFIC JET ("BACKSIDE") WILL DRIFT ONCE IT ENTERS THE WEST COAST
(ON/AROUND 16/12Z). THIS PORTION OF THE JET WILL CARRY A LARGE
PORTION OF THE ALEUTIAN/GULF OF ALASKA MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS WITH
IT SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MAINLAND. THE JET-DRIVEN HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DIRECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF
WASHINGTON...THE WINDWARD OREGON CASCADES AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS A SCENARIO THAT HAS ABOUT A 48-HOUR LIFE CYCLE BETWEEN DAY 4
AND DAY 6 (PER THE 11/12Z-12/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF). AND
BEHIND THE EXITING JET --- THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YOUNG 'WET
SEASON' SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

HEADING INTO THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIKES
THE IDEA OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BEGINNING TO NOSE EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS
JET-LEVEL ENERGY CAN PHASE WITH THE PREVAILING PACIFIC STREAM
PUNCHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND GREAT BASIN WILL BE THE
CHALLENGE.

MOVING FORWARD FROM 17/12Z (TUESDAY MORNING)... THERE ARE THREE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 'PACIFIC'
FRONT---THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS
SOUTHERN JET AXIS AND HOW THE TWO 250MB JET AXES INTERACT AT/AND
BEYOND 18/06Z. FOR NOW --- THE 11/12Z GFS AND CANADIAN MAINTAIN A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO WEDNESDAY --- THE 11/12Z ECMWF PUSHES THE
HEAVY RAINFALL DOWNWIND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. NO DOUBT --- THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PARTIALLY-OPEN AND ALLOW A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM TO WORK NORTHWARD...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE ABILITY OF THE SOUTHERN JET TO GENERATE THE LIFT
AND PHASE WITH THE UPSTREAM SURFACE FRONT AND 250MB NORTHERN
STREAM JET MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS THE PRIMARY
REASON BEHIND USING A 11/12Z ECENS/NAEFS BLEND WITH NO
DETERMINISTIC SUPPORT FOR DAY 6-7 SURFACE GRAPHICS AND QPFS.
SHOULD THESE TWO JET STREAMS PHASE --- THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
MORE RAIN AND COLD-SECTOR SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WEST
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
MIGRATES EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF TWO JET DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT 250MB JET
AXES --- A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
PARTIALLY-OPEN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS... OKLAHOMA... THE
OZARKS... AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

VOJTESAK

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see very good agreement among the 12Z suite of operational guidance concerning the next in a series of powerful Southern Storms...

[srainhoutx]

Lengthy and detailed evening briefing from Jeff:

Potential for high impact storm system next Monday and Tuesday.

Yet another El Nino enhanced storm system will move into the SW US and then eastward across TX early next week. Forecast models continue to show an impressive upper level storm system and very strong surface low to affect the state early next week. Sub-tropical jet will remain in place over TX this weekend with a disturbance currently over MX likely to move across the area on Friday…it should be too dry at the surface for any rainfall.

Upper level system will drop down the US west coast and into the SW US on Sunday and really begin to intensify. This intense deep longwave trough will force strong surface pressure falls over NW TX Sunday night into Monday with an impressive mid-November cyclone developing over the central and southern plains. Strong low level jet of 40-60kts develops over coastal TX Monday transporting significant deep layer moisture northward. Upper jet stream is overhead and expect thunderstorms to erupt Monday afternoon in a very highly sheared air mass. Low level jet will be crossed with a powerful 90-120kt mid level jet stream over the area resulting in strong veering of the wind field with height and strong vertical shear. Forecasted low level shear parameters for late Monday into next Tuesday are impressive. Main question is the amount of instability in the warm sector over the region. Dewpoints likely to surge into the lower 70’s and with strong mid level cooling likely as the strong upper level trough tilts negative allowing the mid level cold pool to eject across the warm sector resulting in good instability. Parameters are certainly pointing toward a potentially significant severe weather episode…including tornadoes given all the wind energy…this is something that needs to be watched very closely over the coming days. Some of our worst tornado outbreaks in SE TX have been in the month of November and the worst was in November 1992 when multiple strong tornadoes including a F4 moved across Harris County. Parameters become even more favorable early Tuesday morning with a strong cold front slicing into a highly sheared and moderately unstable air mass. Upper jet goes into a strong split structure over SE TX allowing good lift of the pre-frontal air mass. A squall line with wind damage will be possible along with discrete supercells ahead of the line. If these supercells root near the surface they will likely become tornadic given the strongly sheared air mass.

Moisture advection and low level inflow will be very impressive on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the cold front. Concern for discrete supercell formation in the warm sector with both a severe and flash flood threat. While system looks overall progressive, potential for supercell training could allow rapid build up of rainfall totals as well as multiple rounds of severe weather. Similar event setup on 11-17-2003 which resulted in multiple tornadoes and flash flooding from several training HP supercells over Fort Bend and Harris Counties. Moisture levels peak around 1.8-2.0 inches which is near maximum levels for mid November. Storms will certainly be capable of some intense rainfall rates.

This system deserves attention over the next 72 hours as impacts across much of east TX Monday and Tuesday could be significant.

Very cold air mass surges down the backside of this system with blizzard conditions likely from Colorado into the TX panhandle and eastward into the plains. Cold air mass will plow southward over TX behind the storm system on Wednesday. Secondary potential stronger surge of modified arctic air appears poised to blast southward toward the end of next week with very cold temperatures possible by the weekend before Thanksgiving. ECMWF 850mb temperatures running some significant cold anomalies for that time period…so something to watch.

[Ptarmigan]

Next week could be interesting. 1992, 2003, and 2004 had severe weather. 1992 and 2004 were El Nino. 2003 was Neutral.

[Katdaddy]

A few sprinkles, patches of very light rain, and virga this morning across portions of SE TX will move into LA this evening. Expect more clouds than sun this weekend with some slight rain chances Saturday night and Sunday as a very powerful upper trough approaches TX from the W. Severe weather including tornadoes and flooding continue to look possible for SE TX Monday through Wednesday. The SPC has a large 15% hatch area for portions of TX during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

From this morning's Houston-Galveston AFD:

FOCUS FOR NEXT EVENT WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS
THAT SETX WILL HAVE A THREAT OF SEVERE/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (WINDS/TORNADIC) IN A HIGH TO VERY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO HIGH EFFICIENCY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH CONTINUED SEVERE TORNADIC TUESDAY MORNING. WIND PROFILES ARE LOADED WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND LLJ OF 30-55 KNOTS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY GETS VERY PROBLEMATIC WITH THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
MAY BE SLOWER THAN CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH KEEPS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE/AGREEMENT IN SOLUTIONS IS MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW AT BEST.

[srainhoutx]

The late morning Updated Extended Range Discussion still advertise a big late Fall/early Winter Storm wrapping up across the Southern Plains early next week. As the week progresses, attention turns to the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska as well as the Pacific where a long stream of moisture extends Hawaii and ripples of disturbed weather march toward yet another developing Western Trough. Cold air that has been building across Siberia may be dislodged sending a piece of that Arctic Cold South into Western Canada and modifying as it settles into the Great Basin and Plains.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

VALID 12Z MON NOV 16 2015 - 12Z FRI NOV 20 2015

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY NEXT TUE/WED...

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
PERHAPS WESTERN KS/NE TUESDAY...


...OVERVIEW...

PATTERN WILL FEATURE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHOULD ONLY
SLOWLY RETREAT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH PUTS A HALT ON THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE PACIFIC... THE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES STILL STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW BUT
DO POINT TO INCREASED RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK... WHICH SUPPORTS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE GFS REMAINS SLOWEST AND MOST CLOSED OFF
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND FALLS ON THE SW SIDE OF
THE SPREAD. THE OVERALL TREND... ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES... HAS BEEN A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM COMPARED TO 24HRS
AGO... BUT THIS FALLS BACK IN LINE WITH THE AGREEMENT SEEN 48 HRS
AGO. HOWEVER... STILL FEEL THAT THE SLOW GFS IS TOO SLOW TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM ENERGY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A KICKER TO PUSH THINGS ALONG. HOWEVER... THIS
IS CONTINGENT UPON THE MODELS GETTING THE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC CORRECT NEXT MON-TUE WHICH IS NOT A GUARANTEE.
WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET FORMING A GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL
CONSENSUS ON A FASTER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION... FELT COMFORTABLE
SIDING NEAR THEIR SOLUTIONS WHICH ALSO ALIGNS WITH A 00Z
GEFS/ECENS COMPROMISE SOLUTION ESPECIALLY NEXT WED. THEREAFTER...
USED THAT ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST AS THE
SPECIFICS ARE PRETTY MUDDIED.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THREATS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE INCLUDE...

HEAVY RAIN - SURFACE LOW AND COLD/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SE CO ON MON THROUGH KS/OK AND INTO NE/IA
TUE-WED. COMBINATION OF SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO... SOUTHERLY
FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO -- ABOUT 55KTS AT 850MB... AND PW
VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 INCHES -- ABOUT 2-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE... SUPPORTS AN EXPANSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FROM E TX INTO LA NORTHWARD THROUGH AR/MO AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME WETTER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NEAR/OVER 10 INCHES OVER 48-60
HOURS.

SNOWFALL - COLD ENOUGH AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR AN AREA OF HEAVY
SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. EASTERN COLORADO STANDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND THIS MAY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY. EXACT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
AND OTHER FACTORS WILL INFLUENCE TO WHERE THE SNOWFALL THREAT WILL
SPREAD.

SEVERE WEATHER - THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HIGHLIGHTS
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA FOR SEVERE WEATHER MON INTO TUE. PLEASE
CONSULT THEIR DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE PAC NW LATER NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
TYPICAL ENOUGH TO BE OF MINOR CONCERN... DEPENDING ON HOW THE
RIVERS RESPOND TO AND REBOUND FROM THE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FRACASSO

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Global guidance remains in good agreement through next Tuesday morning developing a powerful Southern Storm. There are some differences that will need to be monitored beyond Tuesday as to how this storm meanders in the Plains. If the system moves out to the NE quicker, the frontal boundary will likely push East of our Region lessening the threat for a significant heavy rainfall event. Should the storm system linger, a slower frontal boundary could setup training very heavy thunderstorms somewhere over portions of the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana.

[snowman65]

What kind of temps are we looking at behind the system? My Bday is the 18th and would like to see some colder temps that day please

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram from the 12Z GFS, snowman. I think you'll be seeing cooler temps behind Tuesday's cold front. Not nearly as cold as last Nov. 18th (freezing), but cool-ish.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Updated 5 Day QPF has been issued.

[snowman65]

Good enough for me! Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

For those wondering about the Thanksgiving Week Holiday Period, The Climate Prediction Center is suggesting cooler and wetter weather across our Region.