November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[Cromagnum]

So where is all the fall weather this year? I was working outside today and it was very hot from 9AM up till about 1. I'm ready for a few months of the cold stuff.

[Katdaddy]

Invest 93L and slow moving cool front beginning to merge along coastal areas of S and SE TX this morning. I would not be surprised to see some heavy rains along the Middle and Upper TX Coast today. The front and rains will slowly push E across TX.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0643
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1034 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 071530Z - 071930Z

SUMMARY...INTENSE AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2
INCHES/HR...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH A SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING...AND THIS ENERGY IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX AND WELL NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SUBTLE COOLING NOTED IN THE CLOUD TOPS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST TX WHICH APPEARS TO BE
REFLECTIVE OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...AND FOCUSED GENERALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
OFFSHORE...THE UPTICK IN DEEPER LAYER FORCING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT IS FOCUSING SOME AREAS OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE RAINS. THIS
HAS PARTICULARLY BEEN NOTED THAT LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO GALVESTON AND UP
THE COAST TO THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. HEAVY RAINS ALSO
EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LA...AND ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED RIGHT ALONG A WELL-DEFINED 850 MB
FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS MOVING VERY LITTLE FOR THE TIME BEING.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST AND INLAND ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LA. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. GIVEN VERY SLOW-CELL MOTION AND
POTENTIAL FOR CELL TRAINING...THESE AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
REALISTIC. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS-DERIVED
PWATS ARE RUNNING FROM ABOUT 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES...WHICH WILL DRIVE
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/HR. THEREFORE...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

So where is all the fall weather this year? I was working outside today and it was very hot from 9AM up till about 1. I'm ready for a few months of the cold stuff.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian suggest that first real shot of cold air may only be a about 8-10 days away.

[mckinne63]

We had some drizzle this morning in Stafford, but that has been it. Cloudy, overcast and breezy. I do have the windows open in the house, enjoying that cool breeze.

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS...

.STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY NEAR THE COAST
AND BAY SHORELINES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TXZ214-235>238-081200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0013.151107T1800Z-151108T1200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
EDNA...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...
WINNIE
941 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* EVENT...NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

* TIMING...NOON SATURDAY THOUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

* IMPACT...LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS AS
WELL AS CANOPIES WILL BE BLOWN AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING ALONG EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS. OUTDOOR
CANOPIES SHOULD BE SECURED. LOOSE ITEMS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

[srainhoutx]

As Andrew mention yesterday, there is a strong signal converging via the guidance of a potential severe weather event mid next week and possibly again around day 10. These two severe weather episodes likely will play a role in our sensible weather as we head deeper into November. Temperatures in Western Alaska are beginning to show signs of really getting cold. The MJO is suggesting an active sub tropical jet streaming over our Region, so look for the unsettled weather to continue as we march toward the Thanksgiving Holiday period.

[srainhoutx]

Cool and early morning drizzle should give way to some breaks in the clouds by late afternoon today. The next weather maker begins to drop South into the Desert SW developing into a powerful Fall storm across the Central Plains moving NE to the Great Lakes Region by Thursday. Very severe weather is possible anywhere from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley Region Wednesday night into Thursday. Strong gusty winds in the wake of this powerful storm system may be expected late week across Texas with temperatures dropping into the upper 40"s to low 50"s Thursday morning into next weekend.

A secondary storm system begins to organize to our West next weekend and may travel a bit further South across the Texas Panhandle ushering in the first bout of wintry weather across NW Texas and portions of the Southern Plains in the cold sector as the storm system ejects NE. Even colder air in its wake may filter into Central and SE Texas around 18th bringing the possibility of some 30"s for early morning lows by around the 20th or so. Changes are indeed brewing in the weather department as we move further into November.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday evening briefing from Jeff:

Highly active southern stream weather pattern will result in the next two storms systems affecting the state this week and yet again next weekend (making that 4 weekends in a row).

Dry and cool air mass in place tonight will result in overnight lows falling into the 40’s and 50’s over the region, but southerly flow returns on Monday and the moisture comes roaring back by Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong dynamic upper air system will move into the plains on Tuesday/Wednesday with a strong cold front moving across TX on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are starting to looks a little more favorable over SE TX for a line of strong thunderstorms with this front Wednesday evening. Main question is where capping inversions noted on forecast soundings can be overcome either by surface lift or cooling aloft. Jet energy is certainly strong…but mainly just north of SE TX and if the cap is broken severe thunderstorms will be possibly especially north of I-10. Forecast moisture levels surge to 1.7-2.0 inches again which will result in a heavy rainfall threat…however system looks very progressive and should clear the area by Thursday morning.

Two day break on Thursday and Friday with cool high pressure in place resulting in weather similar to today…but it does not last.

Next storm system rapidly drops into the SW US and begins to eject into TX on Saturday. Strong sub-tropical jet core develops over TX early Saturday while moisture begins to return to the area. Expect showers to develop on Saturday and then as moisture deepens more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and into Monday. This system is looking fairly wet at this point and given the saturated grounds in place could result in a flood threat. Certainly plenty of time to watch and fine tune the impacts for next weekend and the mid week system for that matter.

Highly active pattern looks to remain in place through the end of the month with storm systems about every 3-5 days.

[Katdaddy]

The SPC has an enhanced risk area surrounded by a large slight risk across the Southern and Central Plains E into the MS Valley, OH Valley and TN Valley for Wednesday. Damaging winds will likely be the highest threat however tornadoes will also be possible. The slight risk area covers NE TX with a marginal risk extending in to Central and portions of SE TX. With a strong CAP forecast to be in place, only a thin line of showers and storms will be possible with areas to NE having a greater chance of seeing some strong storms. Nice Fall weather returns Thursday and Friday ahead of the next storm system. Slight rain chances begin to enter the picture as early as Friday night into Saturday night ahead of the next storm system Sunday-Tuesday.

[Cromagnum]

Enough with the weekend rain already. I have been unable to mow my yard for 3 weeks as it is, and it looks like I still have two more weeks to wait. With the time change, it's already night by the time I get home so weekday yard work is not an option.

With all the recent 80 degree weather days, it's already a jungle.

[JamieP]

^^same for us, the weeds are knee high already! And not to mention the mosquitoes. Today would have been a good day to stay home and tidy up the lawn : D

[snowman65]

Is it too early to take a shot at Thanksgiving weather??

[srainhoutx]

Is it too early to take a shot at Thanksgiving weather??

Yes it is. With that said the Weather Prediction Center explains why beyond Day 6 is rather uncertain...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

VALID 12Z THU NOV 12 2015 - 12Z MON NOV 16 2015

THE FORECAST APPEARS STRAIGHT-FORWARD DAYS 3-5/THU-SAT...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH
CONTRIBUTES TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION...AND A CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONG FOR THESE SCENARIOS.

FROM DAY 6/SUN ONWARD HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS SHOW SOME
INTERACTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SPLITTING FLOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND
ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE SPLIT COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. SOME SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 06Z GFS AND 06Z GEFS MEMBERS
ARE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN. PRELIMINARILY...THE LARGER SOLUTION
ENVELOPE CAPTURED BUY THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS PREFERABLE OVER THE
SMALLER SOLUTION ENVELOPE. ANOTHER REASON FOR USING THE LARGER
SOLUTION ENVELOPE IS IN CONSIDERATION OF PATTERN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH EXTRATROPICAL EVOLUTION
OF TS KATE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CYCLOGENESIS TO
WEST OF KATE...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INFLUENCE THE
UPSTREAM FLOW. THUS...THE MODEL PREFERENCE IS FOR A MIXTURE OF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DAYS 3-5 5 BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z GEFS MEAN. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH DAYS 3/4...AVERAGE DAY 5...AND LOW DAYS 6/7.

JAMES

[Katdaddy]

The severe weather threat looks to remain well N of SE TX tomorrow afternoon as the front moves rapidly across TX. Expect some scattered storms ahead of the front. Low precip chances may return beginning late Saturday after some nice cooler weather to end the week Rain increase Sunday with the approach of the next trough. TS Kate is forecast to become a late season hurricane before encountering cooler waters in the Atlantic and remain a fish storm.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit more concerned regarding the weekend/early next week strong storm system. The 'wetter' Euro is slower ejecting a deep storm across N Texas and Oklahoma Sunday through Tuesday of next week and the 06Z GFS took a big step away from the previously progressive GFS therefore less wet solutions it had been suggesting. We are getting to that time of year when a bit of blocking between Greenland and the Davis Strait into NE Canada cuts a deepening trough across the West and Central United States as these deep low pressure systems wrap up and head toward the Great Lakes pulling down a lot of chilly air building up in Western Canada in their wake. The weekend storm is beginning to look very deep and further South and possibly a sub 996mb surface low over N Central Texas into Oklahoma with a organizing Coastal low/trough pumping copious moisture out of the Western Gulf as the Western trough tap very deep tropical moisture from the Eastern and Central Pacific. Could be mighty wet around the Eastern half of Texas late Saturday through next Tuesday with yet another storm approaching from the West later next week.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests the CAP will break tomorrow night as the cold front nears SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

[cperk]

The 12Z GFS suggests a very deep storm organizes over New Mexico with abundant deep tropical moisture streaming out of the Pacific and a very chilly 1040mb+ cold High Pressure Cell settling into Colorado. The second in a series of late Fall/early Winter storms is beginning to look very potent with a lot of dynamics both in the warm and cold sector. Tis that time of year folks.

srainhoutx this is music to my ears.

[srainhoutx]

I know some of you have and a lot of folks are wondering what the busy Thanksgiving Holiday period may bring weatherwise across the United States. It is looking like a very cold and stormy pattern will continue particularly out West and possibly into the Southern Plains. In the cold sector, there appears to be a lot of snow developing across the Intermountain West and Great Basin. In the warm sector, heavy rainfall with possibly severe weather episodes looks to continue.