Wx Infinity Forums

Will we continue to see more rain? and when we will have our first Cold Front

And what will the Thanksgiving day and weekend forecast look like...?

i just want that first blue norther through here! Tired of ths warm qnd humid weather!

ticka1 wrote:i just want that first blue norther through here! Tired of ths warm qnd humid weather!

Me, too!!

Looks like a repeating pattern of Western cutoff lows embedded within a Western trough and a SE Ridge persists into early November. That typically spells unsettled weather with the possibility of severe episodes with stalling frontal boundaries, abundant tropical moisture feeding off the Gulf and Eastern Pacific. Still no sign of that first true Fall 'Blue Norther' on the horizon.

The Updated Climate Prediction Center for Day 8+ suggest warm and unsettle weather will persist into early November.

srainhoutx wrote:The Updated Climate Prediction Center for Day 8+ suggest warm and unsettle weather will persist into early November.

Some of the analog dates are interesting like in 2003 and 2004. Both had severe weather that time. 2004 had flooding in which Wharton saw 19 inches of rain!

Got a feeling this winter is going to be hideously deplorable for those wanting cold weather.....and it's already starting...

Don't think so... this Winter is predicted to be colder than normal. It looks shockingly similary to the 1963 Winter which saw record warmth in October, followed by two large snow storms in SE Texas.

The Climate Prediction Center Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook suggests more of the same. Wet and unsettled weather could continue into Thanksgiving.

I,m going to take a stab at issuing some longer range thoughts as November begins. I suspect November will be a wet and active month with additional heavy rainfall potentials as well as several severe episodes particularly as we near Thanksgiving. Temperatures look to remain warm with an occasional cool down, but nothing significant. My biggest concern is an active sub tropical jet with abundant Eastern Pacific moisture being pulled across Mexico into Texas with a rather persistent Western trough allowing for a general unsettled pattern to continue.

One thing I am seeing is the same general pattern continuing into December, but slowly but surely turning colder. I am a bit concerned about a significant pattern change mid to late December with the main storm track dropping out of the Arctic into the front range of the Rockies with a very deep trough developing along and to the East of the lee side of the Rockies to about the Appalachian Mountains. We are already seeing signs of developing Coastal lows, and that tends to favor the pattern we see with El Nino. I will not be surprised to see increasing wintry mischief threats as we move deeper into December and transition into January. Overall I expect an active weather pattern for the next 3 months.

I have a question that has been bothering me for a long time. When I go to weather on the KHOU page, the today/tonight forecast never matches the longer range forecast. Example: the box today says a high of 73 low of 63, 90% chance of rain. But when you look at the extended outlook, it says a high of 78 today with a 10% chance of rain. Just curious....

Just dumped out 7 inches of rain from my gauge at the BAY and its still pouring.
Some forecast....

Getting a bit concerned we may be heading toward another potential heavy rainfall event next weekend. The !2Z guidance suggests another Western trough with a stalling frontal boundary across Central Texas. We probably will get a break in the weather tomorrow and Tuesday, then the Gulf opens back up as well as a SW flow aloft bringing Eastern Pacific moisture back overhead. Strong to possibly severe storms may enter the forecast late in the week possibly extending into next weekend. We will see.

sunday evening email from Jeff Lindner:

As we begin to recover from one flood, factors appear to be coming together to produce yet another round of heavy rainfall from late Thursday into next weekend. It is too early to talk specific totals, but a slow moving upper level storm system will combine with a stalling frontal boundary over SE TX to produce potentially an extended period of rainfall.

With grounds now fully saturated from between 10-20 inches of rainfall in the last week run-off will be likely with additional rainfall.

Still plenty of time to fine tune the details, timing, and rainfall amounts with this incoming system.

I'm liking some of the QPF totals I am seeing for parts of California. They need all they can get!!! Unfortunately in an El Nino year they may get way too much of a good thing.

Dense Fog Advisory in effect this morning for parts of the area. Use the low beams. Be cautious.

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-
HOUSTON-JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS
503 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG.

* TIMING...THROUGH 9 AM CST.

* IMPACT...VISIBILITIES WITHIN DENSE FOG WILL BE UNDER A MILE...
LOCALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF A MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

Already sick and tired of the rain...why cant the cycle at least fall during the work week, and not the weekend?

I feel you Biggie on having a weekend rained on. However, if this flood event happened on a weekday, more people would have been on the roads, hence a greater potiential for stranded vehicles and water rescues. Several schools in La Porte were damaged; fortunately, school was out for the weekend. I have a feeling as we get closer to winter, we will see the pattern into the weekday as well.

The November Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.