November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx,
How does this impact Liberty County. I have a friend there whose home was flooded last weekend. Trinity River was very high. Does it look like Trinity will be out of its banks with flooding this weekend? Thanks.

We will need to carefully monitor what happens upstream across the Dallas/Waco and E Texas Region for additional flood waves moving South for our Rivers.

[sambucol]

Thank you.

[srainhoutx]

Updated QPF for the next 3 days suggests the heaviest rainfall will be West, North and East of SE Texas. We will see.

Edit to add: Heavy snow falling at the base of Ski Taos in Northern New Mexico. Won't be long folks. Could be a great ski season across New Mexico and Colorado.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Significant River Flooding Outlook.

[Texaspirate11]

Updated QPF for the next 3 days suggests the heaviest rainfall will be West, North and East of SE Texas. We will see.

Edit to add: Heavy snow falling at the base of Ski Taos in Northern New Mexico. Won't be long folks. Could be a great ski season across New Mexico and Colorado.

I'm liking that map. We could use some gentle rain but not anymore flooding...
Hope the models are correct this time .....
thanks for the updates.

[srainhoutx]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Watches as well the SPC slight risk area remain across Central and NTX. SE TX weather today looks decent only a 20% chance of showers by afternoon and tonight. Rain chances increase tomorrow into Saturday morning.

[Rip76]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

That's an interesting feature to wake up to.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Active storm system approaching TX this morning.

Overnight forecast of excessive rainfall over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor has not transpired as suggested by several models. Appears their over intensity of the short wave moving out of MX has been the main reason for this. Weak cool front will be moving into the NW portions of SE TX early this evening with a highly moisture and unstable air mass in place. PWS will reach 2.0 inches by this afternoon which would certainly support heavy rainfall. While the front reaches the region, the main upper level storm system moves NE away from TX with weak upper level dynamics left in play along the boundary tonight into Friday. Expectation of a line of strong thunderstorms over C TX moving into SE TX tonight will gradually weaken over time. Still concerned about a short fuse flash flood threat tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville where storms may train well into the overnight hours.

Friday:
Weak and increasingly diffuse boundary will move into the area and stall. Upper level energy slides off to the NE, but local air mass remains extremely moist (PWS 1.9-2.1 inches). Not seeing anything in the sub-tropical flow aloft to help set things off on Friday, but there could be a weak disturbance that rides up from the WSW and works with the front to produce showers and thunderstorms. Meso models are not very aggressive with rainfall coverage nor amounts on Friday and think much of the area could remain on the drier side. One potential is that overnight convection becomes organized enough to our NW that a cold pool forms and helps to act as a more defined cold front on Friday which could help focus rainfall…but nothing suggests this at this time.

Saturday:
Much stronger Canadian cold front will sweep across the region with chances for rainfall continuing ahead of this feature. Winds will turn NNE behind the front and increase late Saturday with a colder air mass pouring into the region. Should see rainfall end from N to S late Saturday into Saturday night with temperatures falling into the 50’s. Lows on Sunday morning will fall into the 40’s with highs only in the mid 60’s with gusty N winds…it will certainly feel cold by Sunday. May have a hard time clearing the clouds out, especially on Sunday morning.

Rainfall:
Rainfall over the next 72 hours will likely averaged 1-1.5 inches over the area with isolated totals of 2-4 inches. Best chance for the 2-4 inch totals will be over our NW counties NW of a line from Columbus to Livingston and this is most likely tonight into early Friday. Rainfall Friday-Saturday will gradually focus southward over the region with amounts closer to 1 inch.

Next Week:
Highly active pattern will remain in place with next upper level storm system quickly advancing on the region by the middle of next week. Initial progs have a good chunk of cold air with this system which may arrive into the area around the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

While it is a long way off and the long range models are often very wrong, there are growing hints that the first 'Blue Norther' may arrive before Thanksgiving.

[srainhoutx]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

Looks like the NHC may have a bit of interest in the disturbed weather once it gets into the SW Gulf.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-163

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 7/1800Z.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0641
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL & NORTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 051950Z - 060150Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX, WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TX OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2.5", FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SEEN ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A VARIETY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES, BOTH SYNOPTIC IN
SCALE AND MESOSCALE, HAVE BEEN FORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TX, WITH AREAS OF CIN REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TX. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2-2.3"
EXIST WITHIN THIS AREA, OVER THREE SIGMAS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER. BROAD INFLOW AT 850 HPA OF 30-40 KNOTS IS SUBTLY
CONVERGING INTO THIS AREA, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN WIND.
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THE FLOW IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
HEIGHT, FAVORING CELL TRAINING.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX ALONG THE AXIS
OF HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT. INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 45 KTS, WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30-35 KTS ALONG THE LINES OF FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AND THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN. A SECOND BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
PROBLEMS AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GREATER MOISTURE,
AND COULD CAUSE CELL MERGERS WITH THE MORE EASTERN BAND THIS
EVENING. THE CAM GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-5", WHICH
COULD FALL QUICKLY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5"; WHERE CELLS MERGE, HOURLY RAIN RATES COULD REACH
3-4". URBAN AREAS HAVE ISSUES WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES AS LOW AS
1.5". FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN
URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...TSA...

[Andrew]

HRRR suggest some training could occur over northwestern parts of SE Texas tonight into central Texas.

[Andrew]

Also check out how much of a difference two weeks can make for a drought.

[davidiowx]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

Looks like the NHC may have a bit of interest in the disturbed weather once it gets into the SW Gulf.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-163

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 7/1800Z.

I am actually in Playa del Carmen as I speak. It's been raining heavily most of the day and the winds are a good 20-30mph sustained. The pool at the resort I am in has 1-2 ft waves in it.

[texoz]

It appears round #1 of the rains for central & southeast Texas did not materialize as predicted? Which is just fine given all the rain over the last few weeks.

[Ptarmigan]

HRRR suggest some training could occur over northwestern parts of SE Texas tonight into central Texas.

Some areas could see +10 inches of rain if that forecast holds up.

[Katdaddy]

A line of showers and a few thunderstorms continue to weaken as they slowly approach Houston this morning. Overrunning moisture is expected to lead to light to moderate rains tonight through Saturday. Some heavier rain could occur along the coastal areas and offshore if moisture from the GOM disturbance moves far enough N before the front moves offshore. The pressure gradient will also tighten possibly resulting in Wind Advisories along the coast Saturday night but currently no flooding or severe weather is expect today and tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Slow moving cold front along a line from north of Wharton to Spring to SE Polk County this morning and moving SE. Weak band of showers along the boundary continues with upstream radar showing better development over SW TX likely in association with a disturbance moving out of MX.

Even though copious moisture is in place over the region with PWs around 2.0 inches, weak lift is resulting in much of this going unrealized. Models have been generally overdone on the rainfall amounts thus far with this entire event. Not expecting a whole lot of development today with weak upper support over the region. Some modest surface heating could get a few thunderstorms going along the frontal boundary this afternoon.

Tonight into Saturday expect rainfall activity to increase as a much stronger Canadian front moves into the area along with an upper level disturbance out of MX. Looking at more of a widespread light to moderate rainfall with a few heavy thunderstorms, but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. Overall amounts of the next 24-36 hours will likely average .5 to 1.5 inches with isolated totals up to 2-3 inches.

Frontal boundary this morning is lowering temperatures into the 60’s behind the front with warm and muggy 70’s and 80’s ahead of the front this afternoon. Secondary stronger front on Saturday will really make a difference with temperatures falling into the 50’s behind the boundary late Saturday afternoon with strong N winds and light rain.

May see some clearing on Sunday, but it will likely be slow. The longer we hang on to the clouds the cooler the afternoon highs…current forecasted now in the mid 60’s.

Southerly flow returns by Monday with moisture starting o increase ahead of the next storm system due into the region Wednesday and Thursday.

[Andrew]

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but looking forward we could see another severe weather event next week (November 10-12) across parts of the Southern Plains. A strong trough will push through the region, issuing in a strong cold front. If timing can improve to maximize daytime heating, dewpoints rebound into the upper 60s by Tuesday-Wednesday with a nice vort max rotating through the region. Cyclogenesis (albeit weak) looks to occur over the Texas Panhandle/ Oklahoma and eject towards the northeast. A strong gradient will be present so as it stands right now straight line winds and hail look to be the biggest threats, but if enough heating can occur I wouldn't be surprised to see some discrete cells pop up ahead of the line. The biggest concern here is timing and junk convection ahead of the front. Both of those could greatly reduce the risk. Still almost a week out too.