November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hope the rain or the heavy rain stays away from College Station this Saturday for the Auburn game. I'd like a full day of 'cool' tailgating without it being wet.

[Andrew]

Most of the energy associated with this trough should lift north rather quickly and stay further to our northwest than the previous two flood events, but a general consensus is forming that the front will stall somewhere along southeast Texas. That could keep rain chances in the forecast for much of the weekend as a result.

[jeff]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but upper support does weaken with time. Since the models near excellent progs of the 24-25th event they have been less than stellar

[Ptarmigan]

298
FXUS64 KHGX 040242
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF SE TX AND SFC WINDS HAD
SWUNG AROUND TO THE E-SE. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTER THAN THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND NOT SURE WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. HRRR
NOT BULLISH WITH FOG AT ALL BUT THE SREF STILL HITTING AREAS W-NW
OF HOUSTON PRETTY HARD WITH FOG AFTER 06Z. LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW AN MVFR DECK TRYING TO DEVELOP. IF CLOUDS DEVELOP...
FOG POTENTIAL WILL REALLY DROP. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR 06-14Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. MIN TEMP FCST
LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOTS OF INTERESTING RAINFALL DATA TO TALK ABOUT. BAYTOWN IS
SHATTERING RAINFALL RECORDS. BAYTOWN HAS RECEIVED 94.26 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 2015. THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AT THIS SITE IS A WHOPPING
43.62 INCHES OF RAIN ABOVE NORMAL. 5 OF THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF
YEAR HAVE GONE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SITE WILL PROBABLY
EXCEED 100 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR. OTHER CO-OP SITES HAVE
REACHED 100 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE TX INCLUDING ANGLETON (100.21
INCHES IN 1973) AND FREEPORT (106.44 INCHES IN 1979).

LIBERTY HAS RECORDED 85.11 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR AND
THE NWS OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ALSO EXCEEDED 80 INCHES OF RAIN.
CALDWELL SHOWS HOW WEIRD THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN THIS
YEAR. CALDWELL HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST START TO A YEAR WITH 57.12
INCHES OF RAIN (NORMAL IS 33.16). DESPITE THE HIGH RAINFALL
VALUES...THIS LOCATION HAS RECORDED 4 MONTHS WITH RAINFALL AT OR
BELOW A HALF INCH AND TWO MONTHS ABOVE 10 INCHES (WITH MAY
RAINFALL ABOVE 20 INCHES). A CLIMATE PNS WILL BE ISSUED LATER
TONIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS COUPLED WITH A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. THE SREF FOG
PROBABILITIES FOR UNDER 1 MILE PLACES THE MOST LIKELY AREA MAINLY
OVER KCLL. OTHER MODELS FORECAST DOWN TO UNDER 3 MILES AT MOST OF
THE OTHER INLAND SITES AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
15Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
YET AGAIN MAKE SURE YOU GET OUTSIDE TO ENJOY THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TOMORROW AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S LOOK ON TRACK WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY SO THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE TX DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
ITS TIMING WITH IT MOVING FROM THE DESERT SW WEDNESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY REMAINS
W/SW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THUR NIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT AREAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DURING THIS TIME BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS RATHER SMALL.
ALL OF THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AND IF ANY SQUALL LINE CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF.

FRIDAY THE MODELS REALLY BACK OFF ON THE QPF WITH MAYBE JUST
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY.
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES
DURING THIS TIME AND CORFIDI VECTORS WILL BE DROPPING OFF TO
AROUND 10-20KTS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND GIVEN ALL THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THINK OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY BE NORTH OF HOUSTON AND
CONFINED TO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRING THE 850MB FRONT INTO NORTH TX DURING THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 300K LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS DOES NOT PRODUCE A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNAL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIP BUT CERTAINLY HIGHLIGHTS A THREAT. SO WITH
THE FORECAST MADE SURE TO HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY SO MUCH COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL.

39

MARINE...
NO MAJOR ISSUES WITH THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E/NE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN A
BIT DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT (GFS
STILL FASTER THAN ECMWF)...BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHCS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP WITH A BLENDED
MODEL FCST OF LIGHT ENELY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE FRI IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH A SECOND PUSH OF OFFSHORE WINDS LATE SAT. LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PART OF THE FCST. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 77 68 80 65 / 0 10 20 50 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 69 81 69 / 0 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 72 79 72 / 0 10 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Baytown could see over 100 inches of rain this year. The last time that happened was in 1973 and 1979.

1973 was La Nina to El Nino. Flooding happened in June 1973 (not to be confused with June 1976 flood). 1979 was Neutral. There was heavy rain in April, Claudette in July, Elena in August, and heavy rain from Tropical Depression 20 in September.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit concerned that portions of Central and NE Texas extending into SE Oklahoma could see a robust severe weather episode with all modes of severe weather possible including the risk of a tornado or two Thursday afternoon into early Friday. It appears a organized squall line could develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary slowly advancing toward SE Texas Friday. As the main energy pulls NE into the Plains, a secondary shortwave drops into the Desert SW stalling the frontal boundary somewhere over SE Texas Saturday. There is some indications that a Coastal low could develop along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast Saturday night as yet another shortwave drops into the Great Basin. Will need to monitor things the next couple of days for another heavy rainfall event with already saturated soils and swollen Rivers across Texas into Louisiana into the weekend.

There continues to be some indications that a very strong Fall season storm could develop next week ushering in some chilly weather around November 13th. Stay Tuned.

[djjordan]

Good Morning.... use the low beams in portions of the area this morning. NWS has issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM for parts of the area.


...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

.LOW VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-041500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0028.151104T1109Z-151104T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
509 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID MORNING.

* IMPACT...LOW VISIBILITY...SOMETIMES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT RAPID CHANGES IN
VISIBILITY ALONG YOUR ROUTE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[wxman57]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but upper support does weaken with time. Since the models near excellent progs of the 24-25th event they have been less than stellar

The GFS was definitely way too low last weekend. European had 3-5", and that was too low. This time, they have the heavier rain missing us to the north and east. That would be fine with me, but if the models don't have a perfect handle on things (likely) then we could get more heavy rain in Houston.

By the way, it looks like rain for the A&M game.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests a big surge of moisture from the Western Gulf heading North towards the Texas Coast Saturday into Sunday along the stalled frontal boundary overhead. With PW's of near or slightly above 2 inches and somewhat favorable wind dynamics at play, elevated heavy storms could be possible Saturday into Sunday. Not sure if the frontal will push too far South with additional upper level energy diving into the persistent Western trough and a good feed of Eastern Pacific moisture associated with a noisy sub tropic jet and a W to SW flow aloft.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall and flash flood event increasing likely tonight over the TX Hill Country.

Models keying in on incoming short wave over MX and rapidly advancing moisture into SC TX this afternoon with likely rapid onset of training bands of heavy rainfall from SW TX NE into the areas west of I-35 overnight. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches will be possible and this on top of the 6 inches last week in this area will likely result in rapid onset flash flooding over the Hill Country. Some concern this could affect the I-35 corridor again.

Frontal boundary will slowly slide into SE TX Thursday with ongoing thunderstorms along the front. Expect heavy rainfall to remain possible especially across the northern counties of SE TX into Thursday night as moisture increases to near 2.0 inch of PW…very high for this time of year.

Front stalls over the region Friday-Saturday, but best upper level support lifts off to the NE. Not sure how the rainfall will actually transpire on Friday and Saturday, but with a stalled boundary acting as a focus along with copious moisture levels, will have to keep an eye on any develop, potential cell training, and rainfall rates. Nothing is really pointing toward flooding rainfall at the moment, but then nothing suggested it last weekend either. Overall setup does favor heavy rainfall especially with any undefined disturbances which may move across in the sub-tropical flow aloft.

Secondary stronger front will finally clear the coast late Sunday evening the threat for rainfall and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.

Widespread rainfall amounts Thursday-Sunday will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-5 inches. Given saturated grounds and already high rivers rainfall of the magnitude may cause additional flooding.

A low end severe threat may evolve over our NW counties late Thursday afternoon with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. With the main dynamics shifting NE away from SE TX on Friday, not expecting much severe weather although a strong storm will be possible.

[sambucol]

Srainhoutx,
How does this impact Liberty County. I have a friend there whose home was flooded last weekend. Trinity River was very high. Does it look like Trinity will be out of its banks with flooding this weekend? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx,
How does this impact Liberty County. I have a friend there whose home was flooded last weekend. Trinity River was very high. Does it look like Trinity will be out of its banks with flooding this weekend? Thanks.

We will need to carefully monitor what happens upstream across the Dallas/Waco and E Texas Region for additional flood waves moving South for our Rivers.

[sambucol]

Thank you.

[srainhoutx]

Updated QPF for the next 3 days suggests the heaviest rainfall will be West, North and East of SE Texas. We will see.

Edit to add: Heavy snow falling at the base of Ski Taos in Northern New Mexico. Won't be long folks. Could be a great ski season across New Mexico and Colorado.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Significant River Flooding Outlook.

[Texaspirate11]

Updated QPF for the next 3 days suggests the heaviest rainfall will be West, North and East of SE Texas. We will see.

Edit to add: Heavy snow falling at the base of Ski Taos in Northern New Mexico. Won't be long folks. Could be a great ski season across New Mexico and Colorado.

I'm liking that map. We could use some gentle rain but not anymore flooding...
Hope the models are correct this time .....
thanks for the updates.

[srainhoutx]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

[Katdaddy]

Flash Flood Watches as well the SPC slight risk area remain across Central and NTX. SE TX weather today looks decent only a 20% chance of showers by afternoon and tonight. Rain chances increase tomorrow into Saturday morning.

[Rip76]

A bit worrisome to see deep tropical moisture down in the NW Caribbean with a pesky upper trough to our West. Additional mid/upper moisture continues to stream ENE out of the Pacific. Tropical moisture associated with that Pacific sub tropical jet extends to Hawaii. We will see if the short term guidance 'sniffs' out the various features in the days ahead.

That's an interesting feature to wake up to.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Active storm system approaching TX this morning.

Overnight forecast of excessive rainfall over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor has not transpired as suggested by several models. Appears their over intensity of the short wave moving out of MX has been the main reason for this. Weak cool front will be moving into the NW portions of SE TX early this evening with a highly moisture and unstable air mass in place. PWS will reach 2.0 inches by this afternoon which would certainly support heavy rainfall. While the front reaches the region, the main upper level storm system moves NE away from TX with weak upper level dynamics left in play along the boundary tonight into Friday. Expectation of a line of strong thunderstorms over C TX moving into SE TX tonight will gradually weaken over time. Still concerned about a short fuse flash flood threat tonight NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville where storms may train well into the overnight hours.

Friday:
Weak and increasingly diffuse boundary will move into the area and stall. Upper level energy slides off to the NE, but local air mass remains extremely moist (PWS 1.9-2.1 inches). Not seeing anything in the sub-tropical flow aloft to help set things off on Friday, but there could be a weak disturbance that rides up from the WSW and works with the front to produce showers and thunderstorms. Meso models are not very aggressive with rainfall coverage nor amounts on Friday and think much of the area could remain on the drier side. One potential is that overnight convection becomes organized enough to our NW that a cold pool forms and helps to act as a more defined cold front on Friday which could help focus rainfall…but nothing suggests this at this time.

Saturday:
Much stronger Canadian cold front will sweep across the region with chances for rainfall continuing ahead of this feature. Winds will turn NNE behind the front and increase late Saturday with a colder air mass pouring into the region. Should see rainfall end from N to S late Saturday into Saturday night with temperatures falling into the 50’s. Lows on Sunday morning will fall into the 40’s with highs only in the mid 60’s with gusty N winds…it will certainly feel cold by Sunday. May have a hard time clearing the clouds out, especially on Sunday morning.

Rainfall:
Rainfall over the next 72 hours will likely averaged 1-1.5 inches over the area with isolated totals of 2-4 inches. Best chance for the 2-4 inch totals will be over our NW counties NW of a line from Columbus to Livingston and this is most likely tonight into early Friday. Rainfall Friday-Saturday will gradually focus southward over the region with amounts closer to 1 inch.

Next Week:
Highly active pattern will remain in place with next upper level storm system quickly advancing on the region by the middle of next week. Initial progs have a good chunk of cold air with this system which may arrive into the area around the middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

While it is a long way off and the long range models are often very wrong, there are growing hints that the first 'Blue Norther' may arrive before Thanksgiving.