November 2015: Ending Cold & Rainy

[snowman65]

I really wonder about this, given the warm weather we have had so far.

[srainhoutx]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Another upper level storm system will approach TX late this week with another round of rainfall.

Fairly quite conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another upper level low develops over the SW US and helps to increase onshore flow and Gulf moisture by Thursday. A cold front will surge down the plains ahead of this storm system and arrive into SE TX Friday afternoon and night and likely stall across the region into Saturday. Moisture levels yet again surge to very high numbers for early November of 2.0-2.2 inches which is about equal to this last weekend. SW upper level flow becomes nearly parallel to the incoming boundary which will likely encourage thunderstorm cell training Friday. GFS is faster in trying to clear the region behind the front behind late Saturday while the ECMWF lingers showers into Sunday morning. Will lean toward the slower solution as the GFS was too fast this past weekend with the clearing.

Too soon to be very confident on rainfall totals or severe weather parameters for this event. Some areas of SE TX have seen 20-25 inches of rainfall in the last 10 days…so needless to say the ground is extremely saturated and significant run-off continues into already swollen and flooding rivers. Given lower sun angle, mild temperatures, and lack of growing vegetation, do not expect much drying before the onset of the next rainfall event. Will go ahead and broadbrush a widespread 1-3 inches from late Thursday through late Saturday with isolated totals of 4-5 inches possible. Given moisture levels expected this could be on the low side, but given the already saturated grounds even these lower numbers would likely cause some issues.

Will continue to evaluate model trends over the next few days to see where the heaviest rainfall will align along with any severe potential.

Hydro:

Upstream flood waves are progressing into SE TX from late week and weekend rainfall.

Trinity River:

Upstream flood wave from excessive rainfall south of Dallas a week ago is passing through Lake Livingston and into the lower Trinity Basin. Moderate flooding is expected at Liberty for the next several days with the river holding just below major flood levels.

Brazos River:

Peak of flood wave is at Bryan and will be moving downstream to Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon this weekend. No flooding is expected at Hempstead and Richmond, but minor flooding is forecast at Rosharon.

Colorado River:

Flood wave from 12-16 inches of rainfall south of Austin Friday is passing LaGrange and heading for Columbus and Wharton. Minor flooding is expected at both Columbus and Wharton over the next few days.

San Bernard River:

River is below flood stage and not expected to exceed flood stage.

Navasota River:

River is above flood stage at Easterly and forecast to rise above flood stage at Normangee.

Current and Forecast River Levels can be found at the link below:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS is still a bit too progressive in shifting the upper Western trough and frontal boundary East. The European suggests the Western trough with embedded upper air disturbances as well as the front will be slower and stalling S of the I-35 Corridor. Think the European model has the best handle on the upper pattern at this time. Strong to possibly severe storms should organise Wednesday night into early Thursday to our West and slowly advance S and E into Friday. Meanwhile back across the Great Basin into the higher terrain of the Rockies, the first significant snow fall of the season looks likely. A harbinger of things to come as we move deeper into November.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 030651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE NOV 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A FEW STORMS WITH
SUB-SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A TROUGH WEST AND RIDGE
EAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EVOLVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TO NRN GREAT PLAINS WILL YIELD A NET EWD DISPLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO FOUR CORNERS AREA BY 12Z/THU. AT THE
SURFACE...A LEAD CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM SD TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SW OF THIS LOW TO A LEE CYCLONE OVER NERN CO. THIS
LOW SHOULD REACH S-CNTRL NEB...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE EARLY THU.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODIFICATION OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS OVER THE NW GULF INTO
TAMAULIPAS HAS COMMENCED PER GOES PW IMAGERY. POLEWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL STRENGTHEN LATE D1 INTO D2...LIKELY YIELDING LOWER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NW TX AS A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF S/E TX BY 12Z/THU. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COMPOSITE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND
FOSTER A PRIMARY RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND...IN SPITE OF
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TIME OF DAY. INCREASINGLY VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
ATTENDANT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

[texoz]

Does it look like the weather will clear in Central and Southeast Texas by daytime on Saturday?

[srainhoutx]

Does it look like the weather will clear in Central and Southeast Texas by daytime on Saturday?

Still a bit too early to say at this point. As I mentioned the Euro continues to reload the Western Upper trough with embedded disturbances dropping SE from the Pacific NW. If that pattern verifies, then I suspect it will be hard to really clear out Central and SE Texas similar to what we witnessed last weekend. We appear to be stuck in a rather active pattern where storm systems arrive every 3 to 4 days. Looking longer range, the models are trending to a solution that may bring a good shot of cold air into Texas around the 13th with a fairly significant severe weather episode potential across the Plains. We will look more into that as we get into the weekend and next week.

Longer Range:

[sambucol]

Looking longer range, the models are trending to a solution that may bring a good shot of cold air into Texas around the 13th

YES!!!!

[tireman4]

Another interesting set up this weekend. Humm...again, as always folks, stay tuned to the mets here and the local media outlets. They will guide you through this weekend...

[wxman57]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

[sambucol]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

What about the Liberty area?

[GBinGrimes]

Looks like the opening day of this portion of the deer season will be just a wee bit wet.

Looking forward to the hopeful shot of cold air next week.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I hope the rain or the heavy rain stays away from College Station this Saturday for the Auburn game. I'd like a full day of 'cool' tailgating without it being wet.

[Andrew]

Most of the energy associated with this trough should lift north rather quickly and stay further to our northwest than the previous two flood events, but a general consensus is forming that the front will stall somewhere along southeast Texas. That could keep rain chances in the forecast for much of the weekend as a result.

[jeff]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but upper support does weaken with time. Since the models near excellent progs of the 24-25th event they have been less than stellar

[Ptarmigan]

298
FXUS64 KHGX 040242
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF SE TX AND SFC WINDS HAD
SWUNG AROUND TO THE E-SE. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTER THAN THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND NOT SURE WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. HRRR
NOT BULLISH WITH FOG AT ALL BUT THE SREF STILL HITTING AREAS W-NW
OF HOUSTON PRETTY HARD WITH FOG AFTER 06Z. LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW AN MVFR DECK TRYING TO DEVELOP. IF CLOUDS DEVELOP...
FOG POTENTIAL WILL REALLY DROP. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS
FOR 06-14Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. MIN TEMP FCST
LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES THERE. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOTS OF INTERESTING RAINFALL DATA TO TALK ABOUT. BAYTOWN IS
SHATTERING RAINFALL RECORDS. BAYTOWN HAS RECEIVED 94.26 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 2015. THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL AT THIS SITE IS A WHOPPING
43.62 INCHES OF RAIN ABOVE NORMAL. 5 OF THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF
YEAR HAVE GONE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS SITE WILL PROBABLY
EXCEED 100 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR. OTHER CO-OP SITES HAVE
REACHED 100 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE TX INCLUDING ANGLETON (100.21
INCHES IN 1973) AND FREEPORT (106.44 INCHES IN 1979).

LIBERTY HAS RECORDED 85.11 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR AND
THE NWS OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ALSO EXCEEDED 80 INCHES OF RAIN.
CALDWELL SHOWS HOW WEIRD THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN THIS
YEAR. CALDWELL HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST START TO A YEAR WITH 57.12
INCHES OF RAIN (NORMAL IS 33.16). DESPITE THE HIGH RAINFALL
VALUES...THIS LOCATION HAS RECORDED 4 MONTHS WITH RAINFALL AT OR
BELOW A HALF INCH AND TWO MONTHS ABOVE 10 INCHES (WITH MAY
RAINFALL ABOVE 20 INCHES). A CLIMATE PNS WILL BE ISSUED LATER
TONIGHT. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS COUPLED WITH A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z. THE SREF FOG
PROBABILITIES FOR UNDER 1 MILE PLACES THE MOST LIKELY AREA MAINLY
OVER KCLL. OTHER MODELS FORECAST DOWN TO UNDER 3 MILES AT MOST OF
THE OTHER INLAND SITES AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
15Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
YET AGAIN MAKE SURE YOU GET OUTSIDE TO ENJOY THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TOMORROW AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE A GOOD 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S LOOK ON TRACK WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP THURSDAY SO THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE TX DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
ITS TIMING WITH IT MOVING FROM THE DESERT SW WEDNESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY REMAINS
W/SW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THUR NIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT AREAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DURING THIS TIME BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS RATHER SMALL.
ALL OF THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION
WILL BE AND IF ANY SQUALL LINE CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF.

FRIDAY THE MODELS REALLY BACK OFF ON THE QPF WITH MAYBE JUST
CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING
TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY.
PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE HANGING AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES
DURING THIS TIME AND CORFIDI VECTORS WILL BE DROPPING OFF TO
AROUND 10-20KTS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND GIVEN ALL THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THINK OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY BE NORTH OF HOUSTON AND
CONFINED TO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
BRING THE 850MB FRONT INTO NORTH TX DURING THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 300K LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. THE GFS DOES NOT PRODUCE A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
SIGNAL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE
OVERDONE WITH PRECIP BUT CERTAINLY HIGHLIGHTS A THREAT. SO WITH
THE FORECAST MADE SURE TO HOLD ONTO SOME HIGHER POPS FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY SO MUCH COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER POSSIBLE COLD FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL.

39

MARINE...
NO MAJOR ISSUES WITH THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E/NE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS REMAIN A
BIT DIVIDED WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT (GFS
STILL FASTER THAN ECMWF)...BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHCS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP WITH A BLENDED
MODEL FCST OF LIGHT ENELY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE FRI IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROF WITH A SECOND PUSH OF OFFSHORE WINDS LATE SAT. LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PART OF THE FCST. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 77 68 80 65 / 0 10 20 50 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 77 69 81 69 / 0 10 10 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 75 72 79 72 / 0 10 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Baytown could see over 100 inches of rain this year. The last time that happened was in 1973 and 1979.

1973 was La Nina to El Nino. Flooding happened in June 1973 (not to be confused with June 1976 flood). 1979 was Neutral. There was heavy rain in April, Claudette in July, Elena in August, and heavy rain from Tropical Depression 20 in September.

[srainhoutx]

Getting a bit concerned that portions of Central and NE Texas extending into SE Oklahoma could see a robust severe weather episode with all modes of severe weather possible including the risk of a tornado or two Thursday afternoon into early Friday. It appears a organized squall line could develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary slowly advancing toward SE Texas Friday. As the main energy pulls NE into the Plains, a secondary shortwave drops into the Desert SW stalling the frontal boundary somewhere over SE Texas Saturday. There is some indications that a Coastal low could develop along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast Saturday night as yet another shortwave drops into the Great Basin. Will need to monitor things the next couple of days for another heavy rainfall event with already saturated soils and swollen Rivers across Texas into Louisiana into the weekend.

There continues to be some indications that a very strong Fall season storm could develop next week ushering in some chilly weather around November 13th. Stay Tuned.

[djjordan]

Good Morning.... use the low beams in portions of the area this morning. NWS has issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM for parts of the area.


...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

.LOW VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-041500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0028.151104T1109Z-151104T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
509 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS
MORNING.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID MORNING.

* IMPACT...LOW VISIBILITY...SOMETIMES 1/4 MILE OR LESS...CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECT RAPID CHANGES IN
VISIBILITY ALONG YOUR ROUTE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

[wxman57]

00Z EC & 12Z GFS indicate heaviest rain staying north of Houston this weekend. Less than 1" of rain predicted for Houston by them. Fine with me.

The models were way underdone last weekend both in C and SE TX. PWS 1.8-2.1 inches support heavy rainfall especially with a front stalling...but upper support does weaken with time. Since the models near excellent progs of the 24-25th event they have been less than stellar

The GFS was definitely way too low last weekend. European had 3-5", and that was too low. This time, they have the heavier rain missing us to the north and east. That would be fine with me, but if the models don't have a perfect handle on things (likely) then we could get more heavy rain in Houston.

By the way, it looks like rain for the A&M game.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z NAM suggests a big surge of moisture from the Western Gulf heading North towards the Texas Coast Saturday into Sunday along the stalled frontal boundary overhead. With PW's of near or slightly above 2 inches and somewhat favorable wind dynamics at play, elevated heavy storms could be possible Saturday into Sunday. Not sure if the frontal will push too far South with additional upper level energy diving into the persistent Western trough and a good feed of Eastern Pacific moisture associated with a noisy sub tropic jet and a W to SW flow aloft.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall and flash flood event increasing likely tonight over the TX Hill Country.

Models keying in on incoming short wave over MX and rapidly advancing moisture into SC TX this afternoon with likely rapid onset of training bands of heavy rainfall from SW TX NE into the areas west of I-35 overnight. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches will be possible and this on top of the 6 inches last week in this area will likely result in rapid onset flash flooding over the Hill Country. Some concern this could affect the I-35 corridor again.

Frontal boundary will slowly slide into SE TX Thursday with ongoing thunderstorms along the front. Expect heavy rainfall to remain possible especially across the northern counties of SE TX into Thursday night as moisture increases to near 2.0 inch of PW…very high for this time of year.

Front stalls over the region Friday-Saturday, but best upper level support lifts off to the NE. Not sure how the rainfall will actually transpire on Friday and Saturday, but with a stalled boundary acting as a focus along with copious moisture levels, will have to keep an eye on any develop, potential cell training, and rainfall rates. Nothing is really pointing toward flooding rainfall at the moment, but then nothing suggested it last weekend either. Overall setup does favor heavy rainfall especially with any undefined disturbances which may move across in the sub-tropical flow aloft.

Secondary stronger front will finally clear the coast late Sunday evening the threat for rainfall and ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.

Widespread rainfall amounts Thursday-Sunday will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-5 inches. Given saturated grounds and already high rivers rainfall of the magnitude may cause additional flooding.

A low end severe threat may evolve over our NW counties late Thursday afternoon with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. With the main dynamics shifting NE away from SE TX on Friday, not expecting much severe weather although a strong storm will be possible.

[sambucol]

Srainhoutx,
How does this impact Liberty County. I have a friend there whose home was flooded last weekend. Trinity River was very high. Does it look like Trinity will be out of its banks with flooding this weekend? Thanks.